How Latest WR Contracts Could Impact DK Metcalf's Future With Seattle Seahawks

With two years left on his current deal, DK Metcalf will be looking to cash in on a hot receiver market soon, creating a potential conundrum for the Seahawks.

Dec 18, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf (14) catches a pass against the Philadelphia Eagles during the fourth quarter at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports / Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

With the passing game continuing to be prioritized in the modern NFL, star receivers keep reeling in the cash with lucrative multi-year deals featuring extensive guaranteed money and massive signing bonuses.

This offseason alone, headlined by the Vikings handing Justin Jefferson a record-breaking four-year, $140 million deal on Monday, eight different receivers have inked new contracts with north of $20 million per year values. Three of those players - Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and A.J. Brown - signed deals with an average yearly salary eclipsing $30 million, approaching the type of money typically reserved for quarterbacks in the past.

Obviously, a ballooning salary cap in recent years has been the catalyst for this latest run of receiver contracts, as NFL teams have dedicated more of that increased financial flexibility to the position than anywhere else aside from quarterbacks continuing to sit atop the contract food chain and a few pass rushers breaking the bank.

Considering the cap should keep rising in coming seasons, at least in theory, front offices will be able to justify spending more on receivers given their immense value in today's game. But that doesn't mean difficult decisions and potentially tumultuous negotiations won't await teams in coming years, including the Seahawks with standout wideout DK Metcalf.

Just 26 years old, Metcalf has two years remaining on the extension he signed at the beginning of training camp prior to the 2022 season, so his negotiation window likely hasn't opened yet, at least based on past precedent. While there have been a couple exceptions to the rule over the years, Seahawks general manager John Schneider normally doesn't pursue new deals until a player reaches the final year of his current contract.

But with all of the money flying around across the league for top-flight receivers, Metcalf certainly will want his piece of the pie. Though he still remains the seventh highest-paid wideout annually even after the recent flurry of activity with Jefferson and others striking gold, the decision to sign a three-year extension rather than a four-year deal a few years ago set things in motion for him to potentially land on an even bigger jackpot before his 28th birthday.

From Metcalf's perspective, and his agent as well, the player has plenty of ammunition to carry into negotiations if he's wanting to join the newly-established $30 million per year club.

Since coming into the league as a second-round pick out of Ole Miss in 2019, Metcalf has tallied 372 receptions, 5,332 receiving yards, and 43 touchdowns, posting a trio of 1,000-yard seasons and eclipsing eight touchdowns three times. During that span, he ranks 18th in the NFL in receptions, 13th in receiving yards, and fifth in touchdown catches and has quickly climbed Seattle's franchise record books, as he ranks eighth in team history in receptions, sixth in yards, and fifth in touchdowns.

Enjoying a fantastic start to his career that ranks among the best all-time at his position, Metcalf also finds himself in exclusive company as one of only 11 players in NFL history with at least 370 receptions, 5,300 receiving yards, and 40 touchdowns in his first five seasons.

But while Metcalf's overall body of work stacks up favorably against other top receivers in the league, if he's wanting to push for similar money to Jefferson or St. Brown as one of the highest-paid at the receiver position, his production single season-wise hasn't been quite on par.

Comparatively, Jefferson already has three seasons with at least 88 receptions, 1,400 receiving yards, and seven touchdowns on his resume, and Metcalf hasn't posted one season with such a stat line. Even missing seven games last year due to injury, he still topped the century mark for receiving yards and nearly caught 70 passes, averaging almost seven receptions per game.

One of the sport's ascending talents in Detroit, St. Brown followed up his first 1,000 yard season as a pro in 2022 with even bigger numbers last year, snagging 119 passes for 1,515 yards and 10 touchdowns to earn First-Team All-Pro honors. He has produced at least 100 catches each of the last two years, something Metcalf has never accomplished.

In Metcalf's defense, Jefferson and St. Brown have clearly been the alpha dogs for their respective teams, receiving far more targets as a result. Neither of those players had another perennial 1,000-yard receiver lining up across from them as he did with Tyler Lockett, who surpassed the century mark four consecutive seasons from 2019 to 2022. Last year, the arrival of first-round pick Jaxon Smith-Njigba also cut into that target share.

Nov 30, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Seattle Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf (14) catches a pass for a touchdown during the second half against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports / Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Still, while Metcalf has consistently been a great receiver in five NFL seasons, a strong argument can be made that he has never taken the step to elite. With just one season of more than 1,200 yards or 90 catches, while statistics aren't everything, his numbers pale in comparison to the majority of the players above him on the pay scale at this point in time.

What does that mean for future negotiations between the Seahawks and their star wideout?

Understanding the value of the position in an evolving game leaning more towards the passing game, Schneider has never had an issue with paying receivers, including signing Metcalf to a $75 million extension two years ago that equaled top-five receiver money at the time. Since he will only be 27 in December, which is younger than Lockett was when he received his second lucrative extension a few years ago, Schneider may have no issue opening up the checkbook again to retain him long-term.

However, Schneider also hasn't been afraid to step back when a price point exceeds what he and the Seahawks are willing to pay. To this point, that hasn't happened with a star receiver during his tenure, as trading Percy Harvin back in 2014 doesn't really count since the team ate a huge dead cap hit to unload him after handing him a big extension barely over a year earlier.

But if Metcalf isn't producing numbers close to what Jefferson, St. Brown, or Tyreek Hill are for their respective teams, Schneider may have second thoughts about giving out a deal to a non-quarterback exceeding $30 million per year. At that stage, based on previous track record, it becomes debatable whether or not he can provide Seattle's offense the type of impact and value expected from that significant of a contractual investment.

Looking beyond 2024, opting not to pay Metcalf top-five receiver money again would present a major risk for the Seahawks. With Lockett entering the last year of his contract as well, a tough decision likely awaits on that front with an aging receiver carrying a bloated cap hit. Even after a strong finish to his rookie season, it also remains to be seen whether or not Smith-Njigba has the goods to emerge as a viable No. 1 receiver in the league.

From a big picture standpoint, receivers won't stop cashing in anytime soon, with Cowboys star CeeDee Lamb likely next in line to sign the dotted line on a deal worth more than $30 million per season. Behind him, Bengals superstar JaMarr Chase will also be negotiating for a similar contract extension and Metcalf will be in the group waiting in line in 2025.

Until then, Schneider will have to weigh the pros and cons of paying Metcalf, with this upcoming season carrying a ton of weight on future negotiations. If he thrives in new coordinator Ryan Grubb's exciting offense and sets career-highs in several categories, while the cost would be substantial and not paid out without some deliberation, it may be wise for Seattle to get him taken care of early rather than let his price keep skyrocketing as other receivers push up the market price.

But if Metcalf's numbers remain on par with what he has done in his first five seasons, which may be the case in part due to the presence of Lockett and Smith-Njigba with just one football to go around, the choice may be a tougher one than anticipated for Schneider and company as the Seahawks try to build a sustained contender in the Mike Macdonald era.