Predicting Over/Under Scenarios for Seattle Seahawks' Offense

The Seahawks offense has some high expectations this year with Ryan Grubb and Geno Smith. Where will the Seahawks land in a few key stats?

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith (7) looks to pass against the Detroit Lions during first half action Sunday, Sept.17 2023. / Kirthmon F. Dozier / USA TODAY NETWORK

The regular season is set to kick off this Sunday, September 8, against the Denver Broncos. Thus begins the long journey through the winter, with one team hoising the Lombardi Trophy on February 9.

The Seahawks have some high hopes this season, especially on offense. There is a potential for this offensive unit to be one of the most productive and explosive in the entire NFL. Let's take a look at a few over/under scenarios with this offense and project where the 2024 version will land.

Total Yards: 5,800

The Seahawks tallied 5,490 total yards of offense last season. That ranked 21st in the NFL. The season prior, Geno Smith's breakout season, Seattle accumulated 5,976 yards. Getting to 5,800 would mean the offense looked closer to its explosive self from 2022 rather than the lackluster production of last season.

Certainly, this would be a collective effort. That includes an offensive line that needs to be much better than last season, when they ranked 28th in the league per Pro Football Focus.. Equaling or even exceeding 2022's total likely lives or dies with the offensive line.

If Geno Smith can get enough time to find his bevvy of weapons and if the run game can get proper run blocking ahead of them, this will be a dangerous unit. That is a big "if." Charles Cross needs to take that next step as a former top 10 pick. There is uncertainty with Abe Lucas at right tackle, but George Fant has plenty of experience in the interim. The biggest question marks are along the interior. If Connor Williams can get back to his pre-knee injury form, this unit has a chance to be much improved.

Don't forget about the solid 1-2 duo at running back with Kenneth Walker III (1,955 rushing yards in two seasons) and Zach Charbonnet (a team leading 4.3 yards per carry last year).

The offense is clearly talented. They just need the offensive line to not be a liability. We have seen this team out-perform their offensive line before, but it's not a sustainable model.

Projection: Over 5,800 yards

Points Per Game: 24.5

Last year, 24.5 points per game would've ranked eighth in the NFL. The Seahawks were a far cry from that at 21.4, ranking 17th. Basically the question is, will the Seahawks emerge as a top-10 scoring offense? The team hit 23.9 points per game in 2022, which slotted them ninth. Geno Smith orchestrated that offense as well. There is no reason why he couldn't do it again.

Again, this is a team game and Geno and his talented group of pass-catchers can't do it by themselves. Neither can their solid dynamic duo of running backs. It will need to come from a cohesive offensive line and a buy-in to Ryan Grubb's system.

Given the small sample size in the preseason, it looks like the Seahawks are on their way to a high-flying offensive season. They haven't averaged at least 24.5 points per game in a season since 2020, when they reached 28.7.

Given the talent-laiden offense with an innovative scheme drummed up by Grubb, this team should be scoring well above the league average rate.

Prediction: Over 24.5 PPG

Geno Smith 4,000 passing yards

Given the prediction of more than 5,800 total yards and at least 24.5 points per game, this would seem like a slam dunk. After all, Geno Smith tallied 4,282 passing yards in 2022, which was a franchise record. Smith is certainly capable of doing it again, especially with three different receivers with 1,000-yard potential. However, the real question is, will Smith have to throw for 4,000-plus yards?

As mentioned, the Seahawks have a reliable tandem of running backs. The offensive line looks to improve in run blocking after a subpar effort last season. If those things come together, Seattle will be less reliant on the pass. Ryan Grubb has operated a myriad of different offenses, not just an Air Raid attack. In the college ranks, he has shown he can adjust to the talent and skillsets available on the teams he operates.

This doesn't mean Smith can't have what would be a third straight Pro Bowl season. He reached 3,624 yards last season in something of a down year. Even getting to 3,800 or 3,900 could be a Pro Bowl-caliber year if he continues to show proper efficiency and accuracy.

Prediction: Under 4,000 passing yards

Oct 29, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III (9) carries the ball against the Cleveland Browns at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn Images / Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

Charles Cross 35.5 Pressures Allowed

When a team selects a left tackle inside the top 10 picks of the draft, there are a high set of expectations attached. While Cross has not been a poor player by any means, he is also yet to live up to that billing as the ninth overall pick of the 2022 draft. He showed steady progress between years one and two. His overall Pro Football Focus grade improved from 63.7 to 67.6. He allowed seven sacks and 48 pressures in his rookie campaign, with six and 42 respectively last year.

Cross has the most important job on the offense, perhaps even the team, keep Geno Smith healthy and upright. This offense has the potential to be potent, so long as they have the time required in the pocket. Cross needs to reach a new level. That means allowing less pressures.

Pro Bowler Dion Dawkins of the Bills is a good measuring stick. The three-time Pro Bowl left tackle allowed 34 pressures (and just one sack) in his latest standout campaign. If Cross can get to that level, the Seahawks have their franchise cornerstone left tackle. His natural ability and draft pedigree suggest he has what it takes.

Prediction: Under 35.5 pressures

Kenneth Walker 1,100 rushing yards

In the era of 17 regular season games, the 1,000-yard rushing season isn't quite as special. 12 running backs reached that mark in 2023 and 16 did so the year before. On the other hand, only four reached the 1,100-yard plateau last season. 10 reached it two seasons ago. That seems to be more of a separating number.

Walker ran for 1,050 yards in his rookie campaign, which earned him a spot as the runner-up to Offensive Rookie of the Year Garrett Wilson. 2023 saw a dip in production, down to 905 yards. A few nagging injuries, an unreliable offensive line, and the emergence of 2023's second round pick Zach Charbonnet all played a factor. Can Walker set a new career high?

Overall, the Seahawks are deeper in talent on offense than they were two seasons ago. There are more "mouths to feed" both in the passing and run games. The fact that Walker might not hit the 1,100-yard mark isn't necessarily a bad thing. Zach Charbonnet is a talented back in his own right after running for 462 yards as a reserve in his rookie season. There is reason to believe he will have an increased role in 2024. Due to that, it might be tough for Walker to reach high heights statistically.

Prediction: Under 1,100 rushing yards

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 84.5 catches

As a rookie, the Ohio State standout was targeted 93 times. He reeled in 63 catches for 628 yards and four touchdowns. Two of those touchdowns ended up being game-winners for the Seahawks. After a slow start, Smith-Njigba came on strong to finish the season. The trendy pick of the offseason is for him to have a big sophomore season in Ryan Grubb's system.

DK Metcalf still appears to be the alpha in the receiver room. He likely will garner most of the attention. However, Grubb's system fits Smith-Njigba's skillset and he likely will have a prominent role. The former first round pick should only get better with time and could reach great heights as a slot receiver with tons of talent around him to loosen up the defense.

Only one receiver in the last two seasons has eclipsed 85 catches in Seattle; Metcalf had 90 in 2022. Look for Smith-Njigba to buck the trend with a heavy target volume this season.

Prediction: Over 84.5 catches

Noah Fant 3.5 Touchdown Receptions

On one hand, this total does not seem like much for a team's number one tight end. On the other, it seems a bit bold for a player who racked up exactly zero touchdowns last season. For whatever reason, Fant was not a featured piece of the Seahawks offense last season, especially in the red zone.

Fant had four touchdowns in his first season in Seattle before getting shut out last year. Can he equal or exceed that figure this year?

It certainly could go either way, with only so many targets to go around and the team having several more-than-capable pass catchers. On the other, this would be a progression back to the mean. Fant had back-to-back four touchdown seasons in 2021 and 2022. Ryan Grubb knows how to use tight ends. Smith and Fant will be entering their third season together, with an upgraded system.

Prediction: Over 3.5 touchdown receptions