Seahawks Analysis: How Does Ernest Jones Improve Mike Macdonald's Defense?

Displeased with the state of their linebacker room, the Seahawks made their second pre-deadline deal in as many weeks, paying a significant price for Ernest Jones.

Tennessee Titans linebacker Ernest Jones IV (53) tackles New York Jets running back Breece Hall (20) during the first quarter at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn., Sunday, Sept. 15, 2024. / Andrew Nelles / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Closing in on the NFL trade deadline on November 5, Seattle Seahawks general manager John Schneider has never been afraid to swing midseason deals and for a second straight week, he's gone into attack mode aiming to improve the team's defensive deficiencies with eyes on an NFC West title.

According to Tom Pelissero of NFL Network, the Seahawks reportedly plan to deal veteran linebacker Jerome Baker and a 2025 fourth-round pick to the Titans for fourth-year linebacker Ernest Jones. This deal comes just a little over a week after Schneider sent a future sixth-round pick to the Jaguars for defensive end Roy Robertson-Harris.

From a compensation standpoint, some may question why Schneider had to give up such a high draft choice along with Baker to land Jones, who will be a free agent in March. The Titans traded only a sixth-round pick as part of a pick swap to the Rams to acquire him in late August, so the Seahawks paid a significantly higher price leading up to the deadline.

With that said, Seattle sits in first place in an NFC West division that looks to be ripe for the taking in 2024. San Francisco sits a game under .500 and has lost several key players to season-ending injuries, including receiver Brandon Aiyuk, while Arizona and Los Angeles also are at least one game under in the loss column and have battled injuries as well.

Sensing an opportunity to win a division title and potentially do damage in the postseason with homefield advantage, Schneider has aggressively sought upgrades to fix a struggling Seahawks run defense. After acquiring Robertson-Harris last week to provide more stability at the edge spots, Jones should immediately be a better fit in coach Mike Macdonald's scheme than Baker, who endured an up-and-down five-game stint with the team.

For one, while Jones and Baker have near-identical run defense grades from Pro Football Focus, Jones has been significantly more reliable finishing plays as a tackler, an area Macdonald highlight after Sunday's win over the Falcons as a lingering concern for the Seahawks. Baker currently ranks seventh in missed tackle rate against the run (18.2 percent), while Jones ranks 31st at 7.7 percent, so there's a stark difference in an albeit smaller sample size.

Last season, Jones graded out as the fifth-best run defending linebacker (90.0) in the NFL, racking up 89 tackles with only eight missed tackles. The Rams have missed his presence greatly, as they currently rank 30th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game without him after finishing 12th in 2023.

Secondly, Jones offers dynamic blitzing ability that Macdonald covets from his linebackers in the middle, opening up more flexibility to send five or sprinkle in simulated pressures. Last season, he led all off-ball linebackers with 33 pressures while tallying 4.5 sacks and posting a stellar 19.5 percent win rate, which ranked second behind only Vikings linebacker Ivan Pace.

This season, the Titans haven't blitzed Jones near as much as the Rams did, but he still ranks in the top 10 in pass rush win rate (12.5 percent) on 33 rush attempts. With the Seahawks, there should be more opportunities for him to use his speed to hunt down quarterbacks similar to how Macdonald deployed Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen with the Ravens.

Jones hasn't been quite as sharp in coverage, but his overall numbers still have been rock solid over the past couple of seasons. In his final year with the Rams, he didn't allow a touchdown and produced four pass breakups on 50 targets. This year, he has allowed 151 yards on 12 receptions for nearly 13 yards a catch, but still hasn't yielded a touchdown in coverage.

According to Aaron Schatz of FTN Fantasy, however, Jones has scored far more favorably on the DVOA index than Baker, posting a -7 percent DVOA compared to Baker's +30 percent DVOA.

As is the case any time a team trades for a player on an expiring contract, dealing for Jones carries more risk because of his looming free agency. But Schneider willingly gave up a fourth-round pick to land him, which historically suggests the Seahawks intend to lock him up long-term, and with him set to turn just 25 years old next month, he should be a foundational piece for Macdonald's defense. The same wasn't going to be said for the older Baker on a one-year deal.

Considering his previous track record, Jones' presence has a chance to be a major game changer for the Seahawks, particularly defending the run where they still rank 28th in yards allowed per game. Unleashing the heat-seeking missile as a downhill run stuffer and blitzer has the potential to add a missing dimension to Macdonald's arsenal while also securing a long-term answer at either middle or weakside linebacker, making the trade well worth the risk.

Time will tell whether or not Schneider's aggressiveness pays off. But if Jones can have the type of impact Seattle expects him to have, including in two revenge games against his former team, his addition could be game-changing move necessary to recapture the NFC West title for the first time since 2020 and potentially bolster the defense in 2025 and beyond.

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