Seahawks Face Tough Path to Playoffs With Control of Destiny Lost

Slipping up once again in a close game at home, the Seahawks have nobody to blame but themselves for losing control of their own destiny.

Dec 22, 2024; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Seahawks running back Zach Charbonnet (26) is gang tackled by the Minnesota Vikings during the fourth quarter at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images / Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

SEATTLE, Wash. - Even after losing to the Green Bay Packers last weekend, the Seattle Seahawks entered their final three games with complete control of their destiny, guaranteed to win the NFC West if they won each of those contests.

But after failing to finish off a comeback in a 27-24 loss to the Vikings hours after the Rams eked out a win over the Jets in New Jersey on Sunday, the Seahawks no longer command their playoff fate and have handed over that power to their division rivals. Even if they win their final two games, they will need significant help from other teams to win the division, a fact that wasn't lost on coach Mike Macdonald and his players after the latest defeat.

"Our destiny is not in our hands right now, which is tough," Macdonald told reporters. "But we still have a ton of football to play for. A break here or there, we're right back in it and rolling. So we'll dust ourselves off, chin up, chest out, and move forward. Onward we go."

After trailing by 10 points in the second quarter, Seattle rallied behind Geno Smith's arm, as the veteran quarterback threw touchdown passes to Jaxon Smith-Njigba and AJ Barner to push the home team out in front 24-20 inside five minutes left to play. At that point, the odds seemed to be in their favor with the defense having held Minnesota to just three points in that half to that point.

However, the Seahawks couldn't hold up their end of the bargain after Smith connected with Barner in the back of the end zone to briefly take the lead.

Following a face mask penalty on rookie defensive tackle Byron Murphy that negated a second down sack and extended the ensuing drive for the Vikings, Sam Darnold stepped up in the pocket and found a wide open Justin Jefferson on a vertical, connecting with the star receiver in the end zone for a 39-yard touchdown as safety Julian Love took a poor angle from his two-deep drop in Cover 2. Plenty of time remained on the clock, but that miscue proved too much to overcome.

Seattle had two opportunities to either tie the game or capture the lead inside the final three minutes, but Smith took a sack after driving the offense down to the Vikings 37-yard line with Minnesota getting home on a blitz and Jason Myers missed a 60-yard field goal, coming up several yards short of the uprights. On their last chance without any timeouts remaining, the quarterback was picked off trying to hook up with DK Metcalf, who didn't appear to run the route Smith thought he was going to.

That series of miscues on both sides of the ball ultimately cost the Seahawks more than just their regular season home finale. They lost the ability to make the playoffs by simply winning out, as they could be eliminated by next Sunday even if they manage to beat the Bears at Soldier Field on Thursday night due to the Rams holding a key tiebreaker in strength of victory percentage.

With the teams Los Angeles has beaten having 61 combined wins and the teams Seattle has beaten only having 52 combined wins, there's a significant gap in strength of victory percentage that heavily favors the Rams right now and gives them good odds of clinching the NFC West next weekend before a rematch with the Seahawks in Week 18.

As linebacker Ernest Jones stated, Seattle can only take care of its own business starting on Thursday. If they can defeat Chicago on the road in prime time, they will have to cheer for other teams that they beat earlier in the season to win this weekend, including Denver, Miami, Atlanta, and the New York Giants, to elevate their strength of victory percentage.

“We just got to handle our part, which is win out. Then, let the chips fall where they fall," Jones said. "Hopefully, we catch a little luck and we can get in there. But, it’s tough in there.”

Ideally, the Seahawks wouldn't have had to count on other teams to help push them past the finish line hunting for a playoff spot as they have the previous two seasons. But they have dug themselves into such a hole by losing their last two home games, once again putting their fate in the hands of other teams when they had an opportunity to avoid that scenario this time around.

Fortunately, Seattle won't have time to dwell on circumstances with a rapid turnaround playing Chicago on the day after Christmas, and there is still a path to re-gaining control of destiny. If Arizona can find a way to upset Los Angeles on Sunday, the door will be opened for play a winner takes all rematch at SoFi Stadium in Week 18.

But for that to matter, the Seahawks can't afford anymore slip ups. Going against a four-loss Bears squad, they have to find a way to get a win on Thursday to give themselves a realistic shot at winning the NFC West. Even if that happens, nothing else is assured at this stage, but Smith knows they have to control what they can control before any other dominos can fall in line.

"We got to win two, but it starts with one. We got a tough Chicago team on the road. I know their record isn't the greatest, but if you watch film on those guys they got a tough team ask with a lot of the talent. We got to be ready coming off a short week, traveling on Christmas. Guys got to get their minds right and get ready to go."

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