Seahawks Should Have Easy Decision on Geno Smith, Future at QB

Beyond 2025, the Seahawks should be on the lookout for a future signal caller, but the franchise has bigger fish to fry after missing the playoffs with few alternatives.

Dec 15, 2024; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith (7) throws the ball during warmups before the game against the Green Bay Packers at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn Images / Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

As much as any business in existence, the NFL is a "what have you done for me lately?" profession, and when teams don't make the postseason and compete for Super Bowls, the buck typically stops with the head coach and quarterback.

For that reason, after the Seahawks were eliminated from the playoffs for the second straight season on Sunday, it shouldn't come as a surprise that starter Geno Smith has come under fire from a devout sector of the fan base who have grown impatient with the franchise's lack of progress. To an extent, their frustrations have some warrant, as the veteran has thrown a league-high five red zone interceptions this season and only threw 17 touchdowns in the first 16 games, failing to elevate the offense around him as hoped in coordinator Ryan Grubb's offense.

But while those calling for Smith's job have the right to voice their opinion, there's one major problem with wanting to move on from him and make a change at quarterback. There isn't a viable, realistic alternative general manager John Schneider could bring on board who would give Seattle a better chance to compete in 2025 and potentially beyond.

For all of Smith's shortcomings - and like 95 percent of the quarterbacks in the NFL, he certainly has them - he has been a borderline top-10 quarterback in many regards for the past three seasons. While his touchdown numbers have dropped each of the past two years, he ranks fifth in the league in passing yards and fourth in completion rate in 2024, while Pro Football Focus has credited him with 27 "Big Time Throws," sixth-most behind the likes of Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and Lamar Jackson.

Additionally, Smith has been hamstrung orchestrating a one-dimensional offense lacking a run game, which has forced him to attempt 551 passes this season, the third-most behind Burrow and Patrick Mahomes. Dropping back 623 times minus a complementary run game and playing behind a shaky offensive line that has allowed a dreadful 39 percent pressure rate, he has also been rather unlucky in the turnover department, as he ranks a respectable 11th in turnover worthy play rate with 15 of those 18 throws turning into interceptions.

Though Smith has largely been successful in Seattle despite limited support around him, such an environment would be setting up most quarterbacks for failure, whether they were an established veteran or incoming rookie.

Looking at the potential free agent options who could hit the market, Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold would be the headliner after having a similar career resurrection to Smith in Minnesota, if he actually becomes available. Considering he has a chance to lead the team on a deep playoff berth, even with first-round pick J.J. McCarthy waiting in the wings, a franchise tag seems more likely than him outright becoming an unrestricted free agent to create leverage for a trade.

Regardless of whether he signs with another team in free agency or goes elsewhere via trade, Darnold's career mirrors Smith in numerous ways. Both struggled early in their careers as high draft picks for the Jets, eventually landing elsewhere as backups before resurfacing as breakthrough starters. There's no guarantee he would have near the same success without Kevin O'Connell calling plays for him, especially with a worse offensive line on a team like the Seahawks.

Away from Darnold, Kirk Cousins recently was benched by the Falcons and doesn't look to have much left in the tank in his late 30s. Former first-round pick Justin Fields has youth and athleticism on his side, but he has yet to prove he can consistently make NFL-caliber throws with anticipation and accuracy and certainly hasn't been near as productive as Smith over the past three seasons. Bringing back Russell Wilson after his unceremonious exit doesn't seem likely either.

As for drafting a quarterback, Schneider hasn't selected one since 2018 and it would make a ton of sense to invest a day three pick in a developmental prospect with starting upside. But for fans wanting an immediate starter, Seattle won't pick early enough to be in the mix for Colorado's Shadeur Sanders or Miami's Cam Ward, who should go in the first five picks in April.

Beyond Sanders and Ward, who will come into the league with questions about their own NFL prospects, the 2025 draft class lacks talent and depth at quarterback. Once viewed as a top-five candidate, Georgia's Carson Beck underwhelmed this season and now will undergo surgery to repair an injured UCL in his throwing elbow. Talented but raw Alabama star Jalen Milroe and Texas' Quinn Ewers may return to school, while Penn State's Drew Allar already has announced he will stay in Happy Valley, further diminishing the class.

With teams recently avoiding drafting quarterbacks on day two, that trend likely will continue in 2025 with prospects such as Oregon's Dillon Gabriel, Syracuse's Kyle McCord, and Indiana's Kaleb Rourke being available on day three to take fliers on. While all of those players may have starter potential in the right system, they certainly won't be ready to take over on day one and will need time to develop before being thrown into the fire.

Given those options, Schneider doesn't have a plug and play option available through either free agency or the draft that will give Seattle a better shot at winning the NFC West and making a postseason run next year than Smith does. That's the reality, whether fans want to face it or not, and his $38.5 million cap hit still ranks just 12th among quarterbacks, so cost isn't near as prohibitive as many are making it out to be.

Rather than focusing on replacing Smith, the Seahawks need to actually prioritize improving in the trenches and spend some money on the interior at center and/or guard. Much as the Chiefs did a few seasons ago, reallocating funds away from some of the skill positions to bolster an offensive line that has ranked among the NFL's worst for far too long has the best chance to push the franchise over the hump, not pushing out a quarterback who has excelled in spite of minimal support around him.

If there's anyone who's future should be in question, Grubb's status as play caller also has to be under heavy scrutiny. The jump to the NFL from Washington has not gone as Seattle envisioned with him struggling to adapt to scheming against pro defenses and failing to craft a balanced offense, casting doubts about his fit meshing with what coach Mike Macdonald wants.

Long-term, drafting a quarterback to groom under Smith makes the most sense, especially if the organization has reached the verdict Sam Howell isn't an heir apparent candidate. But when it comes to finding a new starter, that's the only path to take with the veteran starting for at least one more season, if not longer, with a better offensive line and/or coordinator as a contingency plan under center takes shape.

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