Seattle Seahawks 90-Man Roundup: Will QB Geno Smith Have Career Year in 2024?

Seahawks quarterback Geno smith is entering his third season as Seattle's starter after a down season in 2023. What should the team expect from him in 2024?

Nov 19, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith (7) and wide receiver Jake Bobo (19) during pregame warmup before an NFL game against the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium. / Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

The Seattle Seahawks reported training camp at the VMAC on Tuesday, officially ushering in the first season under new coach Mike Macdonald.

In preparation for the new incoming season, we’ll be detailing every member of the Seahawks 90-man roster over the next several weeks, diving into scheme fits, exploring best and worst case scenarios and predicting what to expect from each player entering the 2024 campaign.

Entering his third season as Seattle’s full-time starting quarterback off of a down season, what should the Seahawks expect from Geno Smith in 2024?

Background

Coming out of Miramar High School in southeast Florida, Smith chose West Virginia over offers from eight other Power Five conference schools. He appeared in five games as a freshman in 2009 before becoming the Mountaineers’ full-time starter as a sophomore. Smith was excellent throughout his college career, throwing at least 20 touchdowns and less than 10 interceptions in each of his three full seasons. In 2012, as a senior, Smith completed 71.2 percent of his passes and piled up 4,205 passing yards, 42 touchdowns and six interceptions — potentially vaulting him up draft boards ahead of the 2013 NFL Draft. Despite his production, Smith fell to the second round and was selected by the New York Jets with the 39th overall pick.

 A combination of poor play and injuries led to Smith not being re-signed by the Jets after the 2016 season, and he became a free agent. Smith spent the 2017 and 2018 seasons with the New York Giants and Los Angeles Chargers, respectively, before signing with the Seahawks in 2019. After three seasons as a backup to Russell Wilson, Smith earned the starting quarterback job in 2022 over Drew Lock, who was acquired in the trade that dealt Wilson to Denver. Smith broke out, throwing for 4,282 yards, 30 touchdowns and 11 interceptions to earn his first Pro Bowl nod and the Comeback Player of the Year award. His numbers dipped in 2023, but Smith was still named to the NFC Pro Bowl roster and remains Seattle’s starter heading into the 2024 season.

Scheme Fit

Even at 33 years old, Smith still presents a legitimate dual threat at the quarterback position. In two seasons with the Seahawks, Smith has rushed for 561 yards and two touchdowns, effectively scrambling for positive yards when needed. His arm is his best asset, though, and Smith has the skill set to operate offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb’s scheme at a high level — an offense that will highlight pinpoint accuracy down the field and on shallow timing routes.

Best Case Scenario

In a new scheme that emphasizes his strengths, Smith surpasses his 2022 numbers and posts the best season of his 11-year career. Aided by a serviceable offensive line and Grubb dialing up play designs NFL defenses aren’t used to seeing, Smith completes north of 67 percent of his passes for 4,300 yards and 35 touchdowns. He also limits his turnovers by regularly having an easy outlet, finishing 2024 with under 10 interceptions to lead Seattle to a playoff berth. His starting job is secured into the 2025 season after finishing top-10 in every major quarterback statistic.

Worst Case Scenario

The first year under new head coach Mike Macdonald and Grubb is much more tumultuous than anticipated, and Smith struggles to match even his 2023 production. Scheme issues are compounded by a struggling, ailing offensive line that cannot protect Smith, forcing him into more desperation throws and sacks. He finishes the season with 3,500 yards passing, 20 touchdowns and 15 or more interceptions — stoking the fire that Smith should be replaced as the Seahawks’ starting quarterback.

What to Expect in 2024

Expectations for Smith and Seattle’s new offensive scheme under Grubb keep climbing, and rightfully so. Seattle’s arsenal of weapons is among the best in the league, and Smith will be tasked with operating a new, innovative scheme that is expected to maximize those players' talents. After a down season in 2023, there’s plenty of pressure mounting for the transition to be immediately successful, especially since Smith will enter a contract year in 2025 and be 34 years old. There isn’t much time to waste.

But Smith will be up to the task. He may not meet the best-case scenario, which would see him rival multiple single-season Seahawks passing records, but he will be the right quarterback for this offense. Aside from all the advanced metrics, grades and lists cited constantly, Smith has passed the eye test as a quality starting quarterback who has had to operate behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Seattle’s offense was only as effective as it was in 2023 (21st in total offense) because of Smith and his ability to maneuver in the pocket, avoid sacks and throw into tight windows. Even if he doesn’t throw for 4,300 yards and 35 touchdowns, there is a realistic middle ground that could still make this the most efficient and productive season of Smith’s career.