Should Seattle Seahawks Extend Geno Smith Before Start of 2024 Season?

John Schneider has rarely given players new contracts with more than one year remaining on their current deal, but an early extension for Geno Smith may have merit.

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith prepares to throw while offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb looks on during a drill at training camp at the Virginia Mason Athletic Center. / Corbin Smith/Seahawks On SI

Since taking over as general manager for the Seattle Seahawks back in 2010, John Schneider has held steadfast to several principles when it comes to long-term roster management.

For one, Schneider and the front office have typically front-loaded guaranteed money on multi-year contracts, with the majority of Seattle's extensions coming before or during the early stages of training camp in the dog days of summer rather than during the season. Secondly, he has rarely negotiated an extension or even a restructured contract with a player who has more than one year left on his current deal, with Marshawn Lynch back in 2014 being the lone exception to the rule.

But if there's a player who could warrant Schneider breaking the latter rule - if not potentially both with negotiations continuing into the regular season - it could make sense to lock up quarterback Geno Smith beyond 2025. Per NFL Network insider Mike Garafolo on the Puck Sports Podcast, Smith's representatives have at least tried to get the ball rolling on that front in recent months.

"They've talked about it. They've tried to talk about it," Garafolo said in regard to a possible extension for Smith. "That's something that's been broached this offseason, so could it be something that gets done before Week 1?. ... I don't sense anything's imminent, but a lot of players raise the issue a lot of times over the course of the offseason, try to get something done. We'll see."

On the surface, rushing to extend Smith's contract when he still has two years remaining on his current deal may seem premature, if not poorly conceived. While he has looked impressive during training camp running offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb's system, he hasn't even taken a snap in a preseason game yet, so any new deal would be orchestrated with projection in mind without knowing how he will fare in a new scheme this season. Talk about a roll of the dice.

Those types of scenarios always carry more risk, and quarterback isn't an exception, especially for a player like Smith who saw significant regression in his numbers across the board a year ago after a breakout 2022 season that culminated in Comeback Player of the Year honors.

In addition, whether fair or not, Smith isn't a young, rising star under center and will turn 34 years old in mid-October. While quarterbacks can play at a high level deep into their 30s, most notably for pocket passers whose games aren't as heavily predicated on mobility and athleticism, it's still not uncommon for quality starters to hit a wall and/or begin to struggle with durability at this stage of their career either, which further heightens the risk.

If that happens with Smith, Seattle would be on the hook for big money for a player in decline, and that's the type of ill-fated move that can set a franchise back for a couple years in the NFL.

But from a big picture perspective, extending Smith's contract before the start of the 2024 season could be a wise move for the organization on several fronts, starting with how such a deal could help create a healthier cap situation for the Seahawks next spring.

Per OverTheCap.com, with Smith's cap hit set to skyrocket to $38.5 million in 2025, Seattle currently is projected to be $25 million in the red against the cap. By tacking on a year or two onto the end of the deal, the front office should be able to lower that cap hit substantially while also offering coveted guaranteed money to their quarterback, who doesn't have any guarantees on the final year of his current contract.

Financially, extending Smith now could wind up saving the Seahawks substantial money in the long run beyond next season. With several quarterbacks signing new deals this offseason worth north of $50 million per year, locking him up now with more guarantees and incentives may protect the team from having to fork over top-five or even top-10 money at the position, which would be far more difficult to avoid if the gunslinger ends up thriving in Grubb's offense as many in the organization believe he will.

Away from the books, Smith also seems to have new coach Mike Macdonald entrenched in his corner, developing an affinity for the player due to his work ethic, mindset, and leadership intangibles among other things. Based on recent comments made by Macdonald in an interview with Sports Illustrated's Albert Breer on the Breer Report, he views this partnership with the veteran quarterback as a long-term one rather than a one-year wait-and-see ordeal.

“I think that relationship is blossoming, we’re not there yet, it’s still 6 months in or whatever, but we’re looking forward to where it evolves over the next few years," Macdonald told Breer.

Running the show for the Seahawks, Schneider obviously doesn't want to set a precedent by extending a star player early, as doing so for Smith may lead to other players in a similar situation to start knocking on the door wanting their own contract situations addressed. From that standpoint, it'd be easy to see why he would decline the opportunity to give Smith a new deal right now, and Garafolo's remarks suggest that may be the case with the quarterback's camp "trying" to talk about an extension.

But at the same time, there are two different worlds for NFL contracts: quarterbacks and every other position. Over the past two seasons, at least statistically, Smith has been a top-10 signal caller in nearly every meaningful metric, guiding the Seahawks to nine wins each year despite playing behind a porous offensive line and lacking support from a bottom-third defense. He's also highly respected by teammates and coaches alike, and it'd be hard to envision other players having an issue with him receiving a new contract as the face of the offense.

Since newcomer Sam Howell hasn't looked the part of a successor after coming over via trade from Washington in March and Seattle doesn't plan to have a top-10 pick next year with playoff aspirations right away entering the Macdonald era, the path may not be available to land a franchise quarterback for the future in the next few seasons either. Ponying up a new contract for Smith would provide stability at the most important position in pro sports, and there's still the potential for an extension to be bargain on a "middle class" starting quarterback contract without precluding Schneider from drafting a possible heir apparent.

For that reason alone, if the Seahawks do decide to go that route and reward Smith early with Macdonald's blessing, while such a decision wouldn't come without risks, it's the type of calculated gamble that could pay dividends for the franchise while avoiding paying top dollar for one of the game's most underrated quarterbacks and keeping them in the mix to contend in the NFC West for the next several years.