Should Seattle Seahawks QB Geno Smith Be in Early MVP Conversation?

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith has just the 16th-best odds to win MVP four games into the season. The numbers suggest that's far too low.

Sep 22, 2024; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith (7) passes against the Miami Dolphins during the second quarter at Lumen Field. / Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

Only one Seattle Seahawks player has won MVP in the franchise’s 48-year history. No quarterback ever has.

Shaun Alexander’s 2005 season was too good to deny him the award. The should-be Hall of Fame running back rushed for 1,880 yards and 27 touchdowns on 370 carries — fueling Seattle to its first-ever Super Bowl appearance.

But the award, as we know it, is voted on by the Associated Press. Additionally, until 2022, the 50 voters cast their ballot for one player per year instead of having ranked-choice voting. There are fewer eyes on Seattle sports than in many other cities, and that can lead to fewer votes.

During Russell Wilson’s 10-year Seahawks career, he never received an MVP vote despite regularly being one of the league’s top quarterbacks. That’s partially because he frequently trailed off late during the seasons his candidacy was strongest, and other quarterbacks were hot throughout a whole season. But it’s still somewhat of a shock.

Even in 2020, when the Seahawks finished 12-4 and Wilson was tied for second in the league in passing touchdowns with Tom Brady, he didn’t receive a single vote. Only Aaron Rodgers (winner), Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes earned votes.

Fast forward to today, and Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith is tied for just the 16th-best odds to win MVP (+6600), per BetMGM, despite playing the best football of his career and leading Seattle to a 3-1 start. Patrick Mahomes has the best odds at +240.

Nine quarterbacks currently ahead of Smith play for teams with worse records than Seattle. You could argue none have been more valuable to their team’s success than Smith has been to the Seahawks so far in 2024.

Note: Four games into the season is far too early to make a legitimate case that a player should be the MVP. However, it isn’t too soon to discuss whether a player should at least be among the top 10 candidates voters should be considering as the season moves forward.

Geno Smith's raw production

Completions: 115 (1st in NFL)

Attempts: 159 (1st)

Completion percentage: 72.3 (2nd)

Passing yards: 1,182 (1st)

Yards per attempt: 7.4 (T-15th)

Passing touchdowns: 4 (T-17th)

Interceptions: 4 (T-24th, min. 50 dropbacks)

NFL passer rating: 91.2 (17th)

Geno Smith's advanced metrics

Statistics courtesy of Pro Football Focus and Sumer Sports

Turnover-worthy play rate: 2.4% (10th)

Adjusted completion percentage: 80.1 (6th)

Pressure-to-sack percentage: 15.9 (9th)

Average time to throw: 2.58 seconds (5th)

Big-time throw rate: 3.3% (19th)

First downs: 61 (1st)

EPA/play: 0.07 (14th)

Numbers aren’t everything, but Smith has posted these figures while also appearing to be the most confident he’s been in his entire career. Offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb’s scheme has highlighted what Smith does well, including allowing him to get the ball out quickly and efficiently.

The advanced metrics describe how Smith has performed this season, and the raw production is the result. With Seattle’s strong start to the season bolstering his play, it’s hard to see how Smith could not be considered a top-10 quarterback within the scope of MVP rankings.

Smith has set new career highs in completions twice this season, and he set another personal high in passing yards versus the Lions on Monday night (395) — the most of any quarterback in a single game entering Week 5. Seattle lost, but it was only in the game because of its Smith's play.

Additionally, Smith is the only quarterback in the league currently top-10 in turnover-worthy play rate, adjusted completion percentage, pressure-to-sack ratio, average time to throw and first downs. No other player is even top-10 in more than three of those categories. Derek Carr, Baker Mayfield, Jayden Daniels, Joe Burrow, and Lamar Jackson are ranked in three of them — Smith checks the box in all five.

Sep 30, 2024; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Lions defensive end Aidan Hutchinson (97) pressures Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith (7) during the second half at Ford Field in Detroit on Monday, Sept. 30, 2024. / Detroit Free Press via Imagn Images

Perhaps the most impressive piece of Smith’s performance so far in 2024, however, is his ability to avoid pressure (also represented in pressure-to-sack percentage). Smith has been pressured at the seventh-highest rate of any quarterback (39.4 percent of dropbacks), and just one of the 11 sacks he’s taken has been due to his maneuvering in the pocket, per PFF.

Put simply: It’s not his fault he’s getting sacked, and he’s constantly having to deliver passes with pressure bearing down on him. Seattle has the 28th-ranked offensive line in the league, per PFF.

Still, Smith is producing the numbers he is and, most importantly, leading Seattle to wins. That’s what the MVP conversation is all about, isn’t it? If the Seahawks continue to win, his candidacy can’t be denied.

It’d be easy to look at Smith’s touchdown-to-interception ratio and assume he’s playing reckless, high-volume football. But look at each of the interceptions closely.

The first was on Seattle’s first offensive drive of the season, and he was hit low as he threw the ball. Both of his picks in the Miami game were on tipped or batted passes, with the first — a high, poorly-thrown pass to Zach Charbonnet near his goal line — being valid of criticism. His most recent interception in the Detroit game was a last-ditch effort to put points on the board, trailing by 13, with one minute left in the game.

Even though it’s early, Smith is far too low in MVP consideration. Will he continue to play well enough to enter the conversation later in the season? The odds are (literally) against him, but maybe that makes it a smart bet.