What Are Realistic First-Year Expectations for Seattle Seahawks DT Byron Murphy II?

Seahawks rookie first-round pick Byron Murphy II won't win Defensive Rookie of the Year, but he will cement himself as a foundational piece of Mike Macdonald's defense.

Jan 1, 2024; New Orleans, LA, USA; Texas Longhorns defensive lineman Byron Murphy II (90) celebrates after a play during the second quarter in the 2024 Sugar Bowl college football playoff semifinal game at Caesars Superdome. / John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

The Seattle Seahawks rookie class reported to training camp Wednesday for an early orientation before veterans arrive on July 23. Among the team’s rookies, one stands out: No. 16 overall pick Byron Murphy II.

After drafting the uber-athletic defensive tackle out of Texas, Seahawks general manager John Schneider said they had Murphy “graded as the best defensive player in the draft.” Only UCLA’s Laiatu Latu (Indianapolis Colts) was picked before Murphy on that side of the ball, and only one selection earlier. The first 14 picks of the draft were all offensive players.

Murphy will enter the 2024 season with the highest expectations for a Seahawks defensive rookie since, well, Devon Witherspoon in 2023. (Maybe that will ease some of the pressure.)

Like Murphy, Witherspoon was also the second-highest defensive player drafted in his class at No. 5 overall. Witherspoon finished fourth in Defensive Rookie of the Year voting behind Houston edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. (picked third overall), Philadelphia defensive tackle Jalen Carter (ninth overall) and Los Angeles Rams defensive tackle Kobie Turner (89th overall).

Even with those results, though, Witherspoon exceeded expectations as a rookie. Seattle has never had a DROY winner in its 48-year history. West Coast bias or not, that’d be a welcome change, especially when bringing in another top defensive prospect like Murphy.

So, with all of this in mind, what are realistic expectations for Murphy in his rookie season? Would anything less than a DROY award be a disappointment?

Murphy won’t win DROY, and that’s OK

I won’t waste any time on this one: Murphy has the cards stacked against him for the award. Part of that is where he is playing, but that’s far from the whole story.

Four of the last five award winners have been edge rushers, with the only exception being New York Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner in 2022. The high-profile, glamour-position players get all the votes because, in the modern NFL era, they get the most media attention. Quarterback sacks are an exceedingly overvalued statistic in the league today, and edge rushers naturally accumulate more than any other position.

The last defensive tackle to win DROY? Aaron Donald in 2014. Before that? Ndamukong Suh in 2010. There have only been seven defensive tackles to win the award since its introduction in 1967. Five edge rushers were selected in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, and if one or two have more sacks than Murphy, the award is likely already decided — especially if they’re in a bigger market.

I hope he does win the award, but we can’t judge Murphy’s season on his accolades. The crux of his evaluation must be his viability as a long-term anchor on the defensive line and backfield disruptor.

Let’s be realistic

Carter’s rookie season with Philadelphia in 2023 is a decent case study when looking at what Murphy’s contributions could be with Seattle this season.

In a loaded defensive line rotation, Carter played 51 percent of the Eagles’ defensive snaps and finished the year with 33 combined tackles, eight tackles for loss, six sacks, two forced fumbles and a fumble recovery touchdown.

Carter was used predominantly as an interior pass rusher, playing just under 29 percent of his snaps in run defense, per Pro Football Focus. He generated an 11.7 percent pressure rate on 427 pass-rush snaps and recorded a pass-rush win rate of 17 percent — fifth among defensive tackles with at least 250 pass-rush snaps.

Similarly, Murphy has been lauded for his interior pass-rushing abilities coming out of Texas. In 2023, Murphy generated a 16.5 percent pressure rate on 273 pass-rush snaps with a 19.6 percent pass-rush win rate to rank first in the FBS among defensive tackles with at least 250 pass-rush snaps.

Seattle Seahawks first-round pick Byron Murphy II is introduced to local media alongside general manager John Schneider and coach Mike Macdonald. / Corbin Smith/All Seahawks

That’s against college players, of course, but Murphy’s 2023 numbers far exceed Carter’s metrics from his final season at Georgia (11.7 percent pressure rate, 15.5 percent pass-rush win rate). Carter’s figures are largely unchanged from college to the NFL, also.

Murphy, despite being shorter and around the same weight, is the better athlete, and the two players’ raw college production was very similar. So what does all this mean for Murphy?

The 6-0, 306-pound Murphy is entering a similarly crowded defensive line group in Seattle, but I don’t see a situation where he is playing only 51 percent of the Seahawks’ snaps. Murphy might immediately be the most talented player in that group, with a possible slight edge still given to Leonard Williams. He will surely be a primary interior pass rush option and should play at least 35 percent of the run defense snaps even as a rotational player.

Murphy played just 21 snaps in his college career lining up over or outside the tackles, per PFF, and I would expect him to mostly be kept as a 3-tech in Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald’s defense. That said, who knows what Macdonald has cooked up for the rookie given his above-average athleticism at the position and the versatility of Seattle’s other defensive linemen.

By mid-season, I would expect Murphy to be on the field for at least 55 percent of Seattle’s defensive snaps every game. Macdonald likes to keep even his best players fresh by having a deep rotation (Justin Madubuike played 65 percent of Baltimore’s total snaps last season), which limits his ceiling slightly. But that just means Seattle should get Murphy’s best every time he is on the field.

Predictions for 2024

46 combined tackles, 10 tackles for loss, 6 sacks, 1 forced fumble, 55 pressures

This type of season for Murphy would immediately make him a top-20 pass-rushing interior defensive lineman in the NFL as a rookie, and that is more than a reasonable expectation given his college production. It might even be too conservative.

Murphy’s predicted pressures are calculated via a 12 percent pressure rate on 460 pass rush snaps in Macdonald’s defense. Last season, both Jarran Reed and Leonard Williams exceeded that number of pass-rush snaps as Seattle’s primary interior players. This prediction assumes Murphy eventually supplants Reed in the snap distribution.

Even if he doesn’t win DROY, this would be a campaign that solidifies Murphy as one of the rising defensive stars in the NFL. Seattle, which has needed a dominant player inside for a long time, will benefit for years to come.