Will Seattle Seahawks WR DK Metcalf Have a Career Year Under Ryan Grubb in 2024?

Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf was the sixth-leading receiver in the NFL in 2020, but hasn't cracked the top 15 since. Will that change in Seattle's new offense?

Dec 24, 2023; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Seattle Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf (14) jumps over a tackle attempt from Tennessee Titans cornerback Eric Garror (33) during the first half at Nissan Stadium. / Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

In 2020, Seattle Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf logged the best season of his career — surpassing 1,300 yards receiving to rank sixth in the NFL among wideouts. Metcalf hasn’t cracked the top 15 in any season since.

The arrival of offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb provides hope, though, that Seattle’s top wide receiver could return to elite production in 2024 and beyond. Grubb orchestrated the top-ranked passing offense in the FBS last season with Washington. Heisman Trophy finalist quarterback Michael Penix Jr., now with the Atlanta Falcons, threw for more than 4,900 yards and 36 touchdowns.

Metcalf, who has been most effective as a vertical threat since entering the NFL (14.1 average depth of target in 2023), will remain the X-receiver in Grubb’s offense. Rome Odunze, the ninth overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, held that role with Washington last season, piling up 92 receptions for 1,640 yards and 13 touchdowns.

If we’re being realistic, it is highly unlikely Metcalf will reach those heights, especially with the surrounding receiving talent on Seattle’s roster. But what are attainable numbers for Metcalf in 2024? Is the best season of his career a possibility without funneling him targets outside the intentions of the scheme?

Note: All statistics are courtesy of Pro Football Reference and Pro Football Focus.

Two’s company, three’s a crowd (only with lower volume)

Before projecting Metcalf’s future numbers, it’s important to understand why his 2020 season has become such an outlier in his career.

In 2020, Russell Wilson targeted a receiver 537 times, with 129 of those going to Metcalf (24 percent target share). He caught 83 of those passes, posting the highest catch rate of his career at 64.3 percent.

At that time, Seattle’s receiving depth was extremely top-heavy. Combined, Metcalf and wide receiver Tyler Lockett accounted for 48.6 percent of the team’s targets, while 12 other receivers, tight ends and running backs made up the rest.

Last season, Metcalf pulled in 66 receptions for 1,114 yards and eight touchdowns. Quarterbacks Geno Smith and Drew Lock combined to target receivers 545 times, with 119 of those going Metcalf’s way. That resulted in a career-worst 55.5 percent catch rate for Metcalf, and his target share dropped to 21.8 percent.

With rookie wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the mix, Metcalf and Lockett received just 44.2 percent of the team’s total targets. While that may not seem like a huge drop-off from 2020, it’s a difference of about 24 targets that would have been distributed between the pair.

If Smith-Njigba wasn’t on the team, let’s assume those targets would get evenly split between Lockett and Metcalf. As a result, Metcalf conservatively catches six of them with his 55.5 percent catch rate. At 16.9 yards per reception — his average from 2023 — that’s an additional 101.4 yards added to Metcalf’s season total, bringing Metcalf up to 1,215 receiving yards on the year to rank 13th in the NFL instead of 17th.

Variance in catch rate, target share, yards per reception and total pass attempts sway these numbers dramatically, and all four can be almost completely out of the receiver’s control. Quarterback play, scheme and the strength of opposing defenses all impact these results, among other ulterior factors at play in an NFL football game. Metcalf had six drops last season and 11 in 2020, so that wasn’t the issue.

If you only swapped Metcalf’s career-worst catch rate last season with his figure from 2020, leaving everything else the same, he finishes with 77 catches for 1,301 yards in 2023 — nearly matching his numbers from 2020. Sometimes, that’s the only difference between an above-average and elite season. The same goes for yards per reception and overall target share.

Dec 18, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf (14) runs for yards after the catch against the Philadelphia Eagles during the fourth quarter at Lumen Field. / Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Predictions for 2024

With all that in mind, the only way to project realistic numbers for Metcalf is to look at past receivers in Grubb’s scheme and hypothesize how he will perform in a similar role. This, of course, requires comparing NFL numbers to college production in this case, which is an imperfect model.

Odunze and Metcalf are also far different players stylistically, meaning Grubb will almost certainly tweak the X-receiver role to more adequately suit Metcalf’s physical strengths and skill set. But it’s not apples to oranges.

Odunze in 2023: 92 receptions (140 targets), 1,640 receiving yards (17.8 yards per catch), 13 TDs; 26.2 percent target share, 65.7 percent catch rate.

In Washington’s offense, Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk commanded 46.4 percent of the team’s total targets last season. Seventeen other receivers made up the remaining 53.6 percent, with a decent chunk of that going to wide receiver Jalen McMillan and tight end Jack Westover.

The biggest factor will be Metcalf’s total targets. With Lockett, Smith-Njigba, tight end Noah Fant and Seattle’s duo of pass-catching running backs also in the offense, there are a lot of mouths to feed. He will still rival Odunze’s volume, and Metcalf should have no problem reaching 130 targets. That leaves plenty of room for Smith-Njigba, Lockett and lower-volume receivers.

Penix targeted receivers 535 times last season in 15 games. Adjusting that number to a 17-game season would bring it to 606. That doesn’t account for passes thrown away, and Smith will not be throwing the ball north of 630 times in Grubb’s offense. The Seahawks’ running game has too much potential, and only eight NFL quarterbacks eclipsed 600 pass attempts last season.

A slight increase to Smith and Lock’s volume last season up to 560 passes targeting a receiver is a realistic number. It’s easy to assume there will be more pass attempts in Grubb’s offense because that’s what he had the most success doing at Washington, but the run game was equally crucial in allowing that success. With 130 targets, that puts Metcalf’s target share at 23.2 percent.

Seeing how Metcalf was used in Shane Waldron’s offense last season and how Odunze was utilized in Grubb’s, a yards-per-catch metric of around 16 is more than realistic for Metcalf. There will be a balance of vertical routes and underneath passes that get him in space.

Let’s also assume Metcalf’s catch rate rebounds closer to a career average, which puts him at 61 percent assuming quarterback play remains stable.

Results

2024 projections: 79 receptions (130 targets), 1,264 receiving yards, 9 touchdowns

No, this is not a career-high in receiving yards for Metcalf, but it thrusts him back into elite conversation and is the best campaign he’s had since his second season in the NFL.

These numbers are directly calculated via the metrics explained above. The touchdown total comes from Metcalf’s career touchdown percentage average of about 12. That number could certainly go up or down depending on who emerges as Grubb’s favorite target in the red zone.

Metcalf is an excellent fit for this new offensive scheme, and he will be rewarded as such. The receiving yards total would have placed him 12th among last year’s NFL leaders, and it could be enough to crack the top 10 in 2024.