Would 49ers Trading Brandon Aiyuk Boost Seattle Seahawks’ Division Title Hopes?

San Francisco's All-Pro wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk has requested a trade from the team. How would his departure benefit the Seahawks in the NFC West race?

September 18, 2022; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk (11) is tackled by Seattle Seahawks cornerback Coby Bryant (8) and safety Quandre Diggs (6) during the first quarter at Levi's Stadium. / Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

An offseason filled with trade rumors and unsuccessful contract discussions came to a head on Tuesday with San Francisco 49ers All-Pro wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk officially requesting to be traded, NFL Network Insider Mike Garafolo reported.

Aiyuk, who has surpassed 1,000 yards receiving in each of the last two seasons, has been a massive piece of the 49ers offense that has scored the second-most points in the NFL during that span and has won back-to-back NFC West titles. The 49ers have reached the NFC Championship or Super Bowl in three out of four seasons since Aiyuk was drafted in 2020.

With the 26-year-old wide receiver’s future in San Francisco looking bleak, how much would Aiyuk’s departure from the division boost the Seattle Seahawks' NFC West title hopes?

Dynamic Duo

Two things can be true: Aiyuk is the most talented pure wide receiver on the 49ers, but Deebo Samuel is far more valuable to head coach Kyle Shanahan’s offense.

Since 2022, Aiyuk has been the most productive wide receiver in the NFC West with 153 catches for 2,357 receiving yards and 15 touchdowns. Even adjusting to all-purpose yards, Aiyuk has over 200 more total yards than Samuel during that span.

Samuel averages about four more total yards per game but has played in five fewer games. Since Aiyuk was drafted four seasons ago, he has played in 11 more games than Samuel — skewing the total productivity while displaying Aiyuk’s ability to stay healthy over his counterpart.

But Samuel remains crucial to San Francisco’s offensive success with his positional versatility. He is one of the best players in the NFL with the ball in space, and Shanahan has a plethora of ways to get him the ball via rush or pass.

Last season, in the three games Samuel missed due to injury (injured on the first offensive play versus Cleveland in Week 6), the 49ers scored exactly 17 points and lost all three games. San Francisco’s offense averaged 28.8 points per game the rest of the season with Samuel in the lineup. Aiyuk has missed just one game over the past two seasons, so it’s pointless to try and gauge his effect on being out of the 49ers’ lineup.

The 49ers are the toughest to defend when fully healthy, as the team undeniably has an embarrassment of riches on the offensive side of the ball. Teams must spread their defenses thin to account for the threat of running back Christian McCaffrey, tight end George Kittle, Samuel and Aiyuk on every play — all of whom are current or former All-Pro players at their positions. Take one out, and that’s one less elite weapon to game plan for.

Aiyuk Against the Seahawks

Total career averages (all stats courtesy of Pro Football Reference): 62 games played; 4.3 receptions (6.4 targets), 63.4 receiving yards, 0.4 TDs

Career averages vs. Seattle: 8 games played; 3.8 receptions (6.1 targets), 61.6 receiving yards, 0.25 TDs

Aiyuk’s averages against the Seahawks are about the same as the total for his career. He hasn’t been more effective against Seattle but hasn’t been shut down, either.

In Seattle’s 2023 Week 14 game versus the 49ers, Aiyuk had the most receiving yards of his career against the Seahawks when he logged six catches for 126 yards. His career low in the rivalry was in Week 4 of 2021 — before he broke out in 2022 — when he had one catch for 15 yards. Seattle has only held Aiyuk to one catch twice in his career.

For comparison: Samuel, in six career games against Seattle, has averaged 6.7 receptions, 107 receiving yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game.

Jan 14, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk (11) reacts after a play against the Seattle Seahawks in the first quarter during a wild card game at Levi's Stadium. / Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Verdict

Aiyuk’s departure from San Francisco would boost Seattle’s division title hopes, but only slightly. Instead of directly increasing the Seahawks’ win totals against the 49ers, it’s more likely that San Francisco will lose one or two more games during the regular season against other Super Bowl contenders, indirectly aiding Seattle’s chase for the NFC West title.

Samuel has notoriously carved up the Seahawks during his career, and he doesn’t appear to be going anywhere. I’m not sure Aiyuk’s departure creates a hole large enough for Seattle to steal a win head-to-head this season, but it certainly could turn the tides against the league’s top defensive units.

Not having Aiyuk’s deep receiving threat will remove a crucial dimension of the team’s offense, but they do have another rising receiver in Jauan Jennings, who just got a two-year, $15.39 million contract from the team. He could fill Aiyuk’s role in the offense after playing 45 percent of the team’s offensive snaps last season, per Pro Football Reference.

Sure, San Francisco’s offense will probably be marginally worse, but it still has one of the most talented rosters in the NFL — especially on offense. The Los Angeles Rams also outperformed Seattle last season, both head-to-head and overall in the division. Another season of four divisional losses isn’t going to cut it for the Seahawks, and that remains a real possibility.

The 49ers are currently projected to be about $38.4 million over the salary cap in 2025, per Over The Cap, which likely contributed to the hangup in contract discussions. Third-year quarterback Brock Purdy will also be eligible for an extension after the 2024 season before becoming an unrestricted free agent following the 2025 campaign.

Even with an ever-rising NFL salary cap, the 49ers can’t keep all their offensive stars together long-term. It was an issue all around for Seattle when Russell Wilson needed an extension in 2015, and it was bound to catch up to San Francisco once their young stars needed to be paid. That’s what keeps the league interesting.