Analysis: Dissecting Seahawks Fourth Down Stop vs. Patriots

Analyst Matty F. Brown breaks down the Seahawks’ goal line stand versus the Patriots, looking at their victorious fourth down stop and explaining the strategy behind it.

Somehow, the Seahawks defense found a way last Sunday. Down to the one-yard line, a game which should never have been this close was decided on the very last play. In the second half alone, the Patriots offense put up over 300 passing yards on a limp Seattle defense. The explosive offense was not without fault: Greg Olsen’s freaky drop gifted the Patriots an early touchdown. With three seconds left to play, New England trailed by just five points. They needed a single, paltry yard.

Things looked rough for the Seahawks. After all, there is no player you’d least like to face in a game-deciding goalline situation than Cam Newton. Out of the 83 players with more than 20 rush attempts inside the five-yard line since 2010, the New England quarterback has the highest TD rate at 69 percent - per Pro Football Focus. At 6-foit-5, 245 pounds, the 31-year old Newton is athletically and mentally gifted both as a runner and passer.

When it mattered most, Pete Carroll and defensive coordinator Ken Norton Jr had the right play call for stopping New England short and winning the ball game though. Prior to the action, we saw Carroll communicating the idea to middle linebacker Bobby Wagner. Wagner relays the defense in the huddle and is responsible for most of the pre-snap checks. The defensive captain excelled before this play.

“He [Wagner] had to go in the huddle and tell them something that they hadn’t heard before,” revealed Carroll in his Monday press conference. “And when he did, he conveyed it and he had to wait to make the call, and he makes the call. It was really a masterful demonstration of his control and the impact that he has on those guys. He was able to tell those guys something, he had to wait for a call, he made the call.”

“Somehow he got that word across,” Carroll carried on. “And you’re talking 15 seconds or 20 seconds or whatever the heck it was in there. It couldn’t have been more than 30.”

Seattle correctly guessed that they were going to get quarterback power from Newton in the 14 personnel set. By slanting their goalline defense towards the offset running back - fullback Jakob Johnson -the Seahawks compensated for the extra blocker created by the quarterback run game, winning gaps back to the play side.

This slant was the “something that they hadn’t heard before,” per defensive end L.J. Collier.

“Bobby came to us before that and said they were gonna run the same play and that we were gonna slant on it, just to go with it,” disclosed Collier following the victory. “It was Bobby’s call, he told us what to do, and we just followed it.”

Jamal Adams, when asked what Wagner had communicated to the defense, answered while laughing: “That ball going right, that ball was going straight right man...”

Furthermore, Seattle emphasized backside penetration to account for the pulling guard. They did this by almost stacking K.J. Wright behind Bobby Wagner, a tweak to their typical goal line alignments. This allowed Wagner to attack downhill, safe in the knowledge that Wright was playing off him and the line’s movement, ready to fallback if necessary.

Every scheme can look good on a whiteboard though. The Seahawks defenders still needed to go out and "do their jobs." Thankfully for Seattle, they had multiple players beat their match-up on the play.

“Everybody executed it just right,” assessed Carroll on Monday. “Every single guy was on it.”

Collier had compliments for the coaching staff and his teammates: “Really, credit to Coach Norton, Bobby, and the rest of the defense.”

Carroll also applauded Wagner, saying, “To pull off a play that was executed perfectly like that, that needed to be at that time. It shows the respect they have for him [Wagner], it shows his command of the game

To the frontside, safety Lano Hill took on the kick-out of Johnson as the hammer in the fit, submarining the block and setting an edge. This was perimeter defense that said to Newton, in the moment, YOU CAN NOT BOUNCE THIS. And it said it rapidly, with Hill getting underneath and outside the block with speed.

Newton twice mentioned following the game that he should have bounced the play, but in the moment Hill removed the possibility from his mind.

“I coulda bounced it, you know, looking at the clip, I just gotta be better, I just gotta be better here at the end.”

“I coulda made it right by just bouncing it. I was just trying to be patient, just thinking too much, man.”

Meanwhile, the playside defensive end, Collier, beat the downblock of sixth lineman Michael Onwenu when moving across.

The real credit for the play belongs with Wagner. Running through the backside A-gap, Wagner managed to get clean into the backfield and recognize the backside pulling guard. Wagner forced this puller, RG Shaq Mason, to divert his attention towards the middle linebacker. If Wagner hadn’t done this, Mason would have cleared out Collier and Newton would have walked his way into the endzone for a gut-wrenching touchdown.

Instead, Wagner got his hands on Mason and pushed him backwards. In such extreme, urgent short-yardage, Wagner going underneath was the only way for Seattle to win on this play. Not only did this stop New England getting an extra man to the designed run direction, it also made Newton bubble and stall slightly. The quarterback took his path further outside to avoid the penetration and prevent contact with Mason.

Adams, left looking at the ball away from the play, recognized the importance of Wagner’s work and the defensive line.

"What a play by, not only L.J., but K.J. and Bobby coming down on that backside,” the strong safety evaluated post-game. “The whole line getting penetration...”

With Collier coming clean in between this Wagner carnage and Hill’s edge, the defensive end - down on the floor - was able to upend Newton in the backfield, flipping the ball carrier in a glorious cartwheel.

“Man, Lano cut it all back to me man,” described Collier post-game. “You’ve gotta give all credit to Lano, that was a hell of play just to turn it back to the defense. And I feel like if I wouldn’t have made it, somebody else would have came and made the play too - so big time credit to Lano.”

“Really man, they were running the same thing all game, and I really just followed my captain and went with him man, and you see we came up with a big time play."

Wagner and a hustling Neiko Thorpe soon joined the acrobatics, leaping onto Newton to make triply sure of the win.

“Man, those are big time plays man, you can’t really,” Collier, visibly joyous, told reporters. “Just like, the excitement, with your boys everything, just to finish it off man. It’s a hell of a play man. Imagine if we had fans here today. Seattle would still be shaking."

“We competed hard, we did a lot of things well, we just came up a little bit short,” said Patriots coach Bill Belichick in his post-match presser. “There were good things in the game, it just wasn’t quite good enough. Seattle was a little bit better. I thought that Seattle made a good play.”

“It was a great play by them,” judged Newton. “We fell short.”

Questioned on Wednesday about what went into the play, Wagner chose to particularly emphasize trust:

“I think it’s a little bit of everything. I think it’s intellect, I think it’s memory, recognizing a play that they like to run during a game. And I think it’s just trust. Trust in yourself, trust from the coaches that you’re gonna do the right thing and it’s gonna work out right, and, you know, L.J. and Lano trusted me and they made an amazing play.”

The on-field, instant reaction scenes mirrored those of 12s watching at home. Emotions were ablaze. Through the pandemonium of last-gasp victory and the ecstasy of intense relief, the 2-0 Seahawks found a way.

For Collier, it wasn’t just the joy of winning. It was visible solace in finally making a play. Injured early into his rookie season, the 2019 first-round pick has been under intense pressure to do something. With his tackle for loss, you could see the pressure vanish. For him, this was redemption.

“I feel like it’s only up from here, really,” declared Collier. “It just feels like, just, a little bit of my offseason work, and how hard I worked in the offseason, from getting up early and killing myself every day, it just shows how hard I worked this offseason.”

“I used it [a disappointing rookie year] to drive me in the offseason, to push myself everyday to know that I’m not gonna sit on the sideline this year, I’m gonna come here and I’m gonna help, I’m gonna work, I’m gonna do what I gotta do. Nothing will be given to me and I’m gonna earn everything that I get.”

The aftermath of a game played in front of the nation, on Sunday Night Football, naturally led to widespread second-guessing of Patriots play caller Josh McDaniels - a sensation that followers of the Seahawks are sadly well-accustomed to.

From New England, this play was part of a short-yardage, goalline series they ran out of their jumbo grouping throughout the encounter. The personnel featured offensive linemen Michael Onwenu and Justin Herron, lined up at tight end, plus fullback Jakob Johnson along with two conventional tight ends. It was largely successful.

The Patriots started in pistol, with the back behind Newton and tight end offset, and then shifted both their tight end and running back before the snap. Izzo went in-line and Johnson moved off-set. This made it much tougher for the defense to get aligned pre-snap. Whether the Seahawks wanted to align off the back or the tight end, their available time to get lined up and react was severely limited.

Furthermore, like all savvy series, each play within the sequence layered off one another and therefore demanded the defense honor their assignments, keeping them honest: Quarterback power to the back, quarterback counter away from the back; quarterback power pop pass to the back.

If the Patriots had run their quarterback counter on the last play of the game, they’d have scored easily. The aiming point for Newton on the counter was away from Johnson’s starting position, so the Seahawks would have slanted in the wrong direction and lost, with all their chips on the wrong color. It worked for New England against a plain suit Seattle goal line defense with 14:05 remaining in the second quarter:

Carroll and Norton must have been confident that the last play wouldn’t be a pass. That’s because the Patriots had already used their passing play out of the look. With 14:17 left in the fourth quarter, McDaniels dialed up a power pop pass that exploited the aggression of Adams and the desperation of defending on the goalline. Adams, seeing the guard pull and Newton take a step downhill, blazed past the "block" of Johnson for what he thought was a tackle for loss on the quarterback power.

Adams was wrong. Johnson was running a quick flat route. Adams’ run conflict saw him vacate his pass responsibility over Johnson, and Newton was able to loft a simple touchdown pop pass to his fullback.

On the final play, Adams momentarily expected Newton to go under center and try a quarterback sneak or leap into the endzone - his trademark scoring play.

“I thought, honestly me personally, I thought that Cam was gonna go shotgun and try to go under center real quick and try to jump over like he always does,” divulged Adams.

Newton was in fact considering this, admitting, “Even just diving over the top, there’s so many different things that flashed over me.”

Certain Twitter loudmouths thought New England should have ditched their jumbo set with the game on the line and opted for more of a gun threat, including yours truly:

The #Patriots really wanted to go out like that on the 1-yard-line? At least spread them out to run Cam Newton. That last play was Pete Carroll's dream. Old-school 'ball, collapse the line with a test of will, strength and #grit .New England already used their pass from that form

— Under Zone X (Frisco)/Phoenix Check/Stick Slasher2 (@mattyfbrown) September 21, 2020

In the week after the game, McDaniels was asked why they didn’t go with spread:

I asked Josh McDaniels today if he considered running Cam from a spread formation on the final play vs. the Seahawks. He noted that the failed 2-point conversion came out of the spread. Jamal Adams came in unblocked and stuffed Cam

— Ben Volin (@BenVolin) September 22, 2020

The play McDaniels was referring to is the 14.14 fourth quarter two-point attempt. Seattle dared the Patriots to throw the ball outside from their 11 personnel, 2x2 shotgun formation, with the Seahawks leaving a clear two-on-two situation to the wide side of the field. Their nickel defense was in Cover 1 defense with Bobby Wagner blitzing the flexside B-gap (this is relevant).

Rather than pass to the 2v2, New England tried to run Newton. It seems there was a busted blocking assignment up front for the Patriots as it’s odd that none of the offensive linemen pulled on this play. Left tackle Isaiah Wynn contributed absolutely nothing - it’s possible he was supposed to pull. What’s certain is that he was definitely meant to block someone or do something.

From a Seattle perspective, their over front won because heavy 3-technique Jarran Reed did a fabulous job bullying the lunging block of left guard Joe Thuney and swimming to the outside, showing up large in the playside B-gap. Bruce Irvin also set a stout edge to this side, knocking back tight end Ryan Izzo and winning to the outside. This forced Newton into evasive action and he cut back into the A-gaps.

Nose tackle Poona Ford got shoved almost into the backside B-gap by center David Andrews. However, this attention was enough to create cavernous room for Adams to come screaming through the A-gaps and stop Newton way short. Hill from the other safety spot did well to somewhat join the action too after identifying that his man cover assignment was blocking. Adams was technically the middle of field defender, yet his active safety play was vital in matching the run fit numbers back up for the plus-1 quarterback rush.

The above is why New England didn’t try spreading Seattle out again. They wanted to keep Adams out of making a play like this and they didn’t trust their receivers to win a one-on-one in the absolute situation of convert-or-lose.

Instead, the Patriots picked their core play of quarterback power, their bread and butter that they run out of various looks, but from a set that gave them better angles and personnel for the run.

"We had one play to score and we tried to go with what we thought was our best play,” Belichick imparted after the action.

Power had already worked for them, with it featured at 2:18 in the fourth quarter. Seattle played it straight up - ‘normal’ structure with no movement up front - and New England subsequently outnumbered them to the play side, with Newton reaching the endzone untouched.

While the Patriots didn’t adjust their quarterback power play on the last moment of the game, the Seahawks did change.

"That’s a play we had favored in the gameplan, we ran it a couple of times,” said Newton. “We figure, you know, we want to the well too many times.” 

Seattle gambled and they won big. Over to Magic Johnson for better analysis:

Cam Newton came up short on the goal line.

— Earvin Magic Johnson (@MagicJohnson) September 21, 2020

Seahawks personnel on the goalline stand:

Adams:

“Man man man, that was crazy man.”

“As a defense, we like to be in those moments but we don’t like to be in those moments, you know what I mean? It’s just so fun and so exciting to get that win and pull it off like that.”

“It’s just the fight in and the want to with this team. We’re gonna fight until the end.”

“The most important thing in this league is getting the win, and that’s so hard to do in this league man. So I’m forever grateful for it.”

“Oh man, what a defensive stand man."

“But at the end of the day, that’s what it’s about man, just finishing and playing together as one. I’m so proud of this team man.”

“We knew, we knew we was gonna win; we didn’t panic.” 

Carroll (post-game):

“For our guys to hang all the way to the end.”

“It’s an extraordinary moment for football players and for a team. You either come through it or you don’t. And there’s so much intensity in that moment. The guys on the field will never forget it, ever. It was just a moment.” 

Wagner:

I just think it’s kinda like a barrier. You don’t want nobody to cross the barrier. So, something switches in your mind in not wanting somebody to score, you wanna do everything that you can to protect that blade of grass. A lot of it just will, a lot of it is just who’s gonna be stronger in that moment. And it’s something that people look forward to.”

Collier:

It’s time to put up or shut up. Do you want to make a play? Do you want to win? We work too hard not to go out there and make that play. At the end of the day, that’s really what it was.