5 Things to Watch: Steelers vs Ravens Feels Like a T.J. Watt Game
Just a couple weeks after the Baltimore Ravens marched into Acrisure stadium and knocked off the Pittsburgh Steelers, Pittsburgh has a chance to get some much-needed revenge this weekend.
Baltimore has clinched a playoff berth, but they are fighting for the AFC North crown while Pittsburgh needs a ton of help to potentially secure the final wild card spot. Mike Tomlin, John Harbaugh. It's Ravens week which needs very little introduction.
Here's what to watch for.
Pickett's First (Real) Ravens Matchup
The last time these two teams met, Kenny Pickett was making his first career start against the division rival Ravens before promptly suffering a concussion on the first drive of the game, which was his second in a matter of months.
Returning last week against the Las Vegas Raiders, Pickett showed some resiliency through tough weather conditions, leading a game-winning drive in the waning moments of the game to seal a victory. The rookie's game-winning drive is encouraging for multiple reasons, but that clutch factor could be especially crucial this week seeing as Steelers-Ravens games always tend to come right down to the wire.
Pickett will likely see a little more pressure than he's been seeing in recent weeks during the best stretch of his young career as the Ravens' defense is averaging 2.9 sacks per game, the fifth most among NFL teams. He made some masterful plays out of structure down the stretch this week which might be necessary again on Sunday. However, one of the things he still needs to work on is avoiding bailing out of the pocket quickly, especially with how athletic some of the Ravens' second-level players (Oweh, Smith, Queen) are.
Mitch Trubisky was able to move the ball through the air basically at will in his absence a few weeks ago but couldn't avoid the critical turnovers in Raven territory. Pickett's done a better job taking care of the football of late and will need to do so again in this one to have a chance to keep their win steak alive.
Tyler Huntley Makes Another Appearance
It's pretty bizarre to think about how Lamar Jackson has spent five years in Baltimore but has only started three games against Pittsburgh. But alas, Tyler Huntley steps in once again to make his third start against the Steelers in his career, splitting the first two games evenly.
Huntley didn't really have to do much in the last meeting because the Steelers never proved capable of stopping the Ravens' rushing attack led by J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, granted he didn't finish the game due to injury. Huntley did hurt the Steelers with a couple of scrambles as they simply lost contain on the edge at times, which is something that they'll need to correct Sunday night.
Huntley doesn't push the ball down the field very often whatsoever and without a couple of his top weapons at receiver, there's not much to suggest that will change this weekend. Pittsburgh was blitz-heavy in Week 14 as they clearly had every intention of trying to speed Huntley's process up and force him to make difficult throws down the field. In limited action, he's averaging just 5.0 yards per attempt against the blitz this season, according to pro football focus, so expect defensive coordinator Teryl Austin to bring some additional heat in this one.
They just have to be mindful to maintain rush lane integrity and avoid letting him escape the pocket to pick up yards with his legs.
What Will Baltimore's Coverage Structures Look Like?
It seems like every year the Ravens never seem to have a healthy batch of secondary players and this matchup is yet another example of that being the case. Star corner Marcus Peters will miss Sunday's contest while they have a plethora of other corners who are already on injured reserve. In Peters's place, it will likely be second-year man Brandon Stephens, a raw third-round pick in last year's NFL Draft who's been shuffled back and forth between safety and cornerback so far in his professional career.
Stephens certainly looks the part, standing 6-1, weighing 215 pounds with plus length and quality long speed. The problem is that he's still very raw in terms of his technique, especially at the line of scrimmage.
Diontae Johnson talked about how teams have been playing so much man-to-man against the Steelers since the bye week, but he felt like they're starting to play teams out of that approach. Given how George Pickens roasted Marlon Humphrey in the last matchup for three catches and 78 yards and the inexperience on the other side, it'll be pretty surprising to see the Ravens get really aggressive in the secondary.
Pittsburgh's weaponry has a clear advantage in this one as Baltimore really doesn't have a corner really fit to counter the quickness and suddenness of Diontae Johnson. It's safe to expect a decent amount of zone coverage and two high safety looks in this one on early downs with Baltimore making protecting their corners a priority.
This Feels Like a T.J. Watt Game
Veteran defensive lineman Cam Heyward has been doing a lot of the heavy lifting upfront in recent weeks, but of late, T.J. Watt has also been looking more and more like the dynamic player we're used to seeing.
Even when he's clearly less than 100% physically, Watt has still flashed signs of dominance both as a pass rusher and run defender. This week, he'll be matched up with Morgan Moses, and while he's been a very quality player for them this season, Watt was disruptive in their last face-off, registering five pressures and a quarterback sack. The Steelers were also deploying Watt as a quarterback spy at times early in the game in Week 14 to try and keep Tyler Huntley from scrambling out of the pocket unaccounted for.
Moses is an above-average, quality starter who wins the vast majority of his matchups thanks to being so strong with plus length at his disposal. Having said that, he's a bigger guy who isn't the most fleet of foot and can struggle with edge rushers with top-tier athleticism similar to what Watt brings to the table. Myles Garrett worked him for a really impressive sack in their first matchup against one another this season and Watt is the type of athlete to give him some issues with his speed and overall ability to win the short corner quickly.
Rivalry games are typically when coaches will look to their best players to come up big when the lights are the brightest, and this feels like a potential statement game for Watt to politely remind everyone that he's one of the best in the business.
What's At Stake?
According to FiveThirtyEight, the Steelers have roughly a 2% chance to make the postseason, and they could actually be eliminated before they even step onto the field on Sunday night if the Miami Dolphins beat the New England Patriots. Hopefully, that doesn't happen so that we can enjoy another classic slugfest between these two teams in primetime which is a fitting way to wind down the regular season.
Beyond playoff implications, Mike Tomlin's impressive streak of non-losing seasons is also on the line, and the players have made it very clear that they intend to keep that streak intact for their head coach.
With all of that said, it's Steelers-Ravens, and there's no love lost between these two franchises. These games are always incredibly tough and seemingly are guaranteed to come down to the wire. Ironically, Harbaugh's Ravens have beaten Tomlin's Steelers on a number of different occasions with backup quarterbacks such as Ryan Mallet, Robert Griffin III, and Tyler Huntley. Whether they're playing for their slim playoff odds, pride or to keep Tomlin's streak alive, Pittsburgh needs to find a way to take advantage of Lamar Jackson's absence and avoid being swept by Baltimore for the first time since 2019.
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