Steelers Free Agency Predictions: Who Stays and Who Goes
It's time for the Pittsburgh Steelers to decide which of their free agents will stay and which will go.
On March 17, the National Football League's new year will officially be underway. All teams must be in salary cap compliance by this date, as trades previously agreed upon (such as the Matthew Stafford-Jared Goff swap) would become officially completed.
The other (and likely most important) factor for the magical date of March 17? Free agency officially begins, although the NFL allows a legal "tampering" period where teams are allowed to begin negotiations with other players who are set to become unrestricted free agents, beginning on March 15.
Whichever true starting date you recognize for the frenzy that is free agency, we are less than a week away from one of the most entertaining dead periods in the sporting world.
Despite concerns about the egregious cap figures the Pittsburgh Steelers would have to entertain, the Steelers currently (as this article is written) find themselves with nearly $6.2 million dollars in cap space per OverTheCap, with potentially more cash coming with a handful of possible cap-cutting maneuvers the team could pull off.
Big decisions loom over the Steelers' front office, as top-tier guys such as JuJu Smith-Schuster and Bud Dupree look to add a few commas to their bank accounts. On the other side of the coin, players such as Mike Hilton and James Conner will certainly look for a pay-rise in their own regards as well.
Last season, yours truly correctly predicted 20 of 22 scenarios for the Steelers, and despite another tough list of free agents for Pittsburgh to consider this season, I'm confident I won't deviate too far from a successful turnout.
With the Steelers already taking care of some in-house players, Pittsburgh has already begun their free agency process. The following players have already had deals to sign back with the Steelers:
- LB Marcus Allen
- WR Ray-Ray McCloud
- C J.C. Hassenauer
With 21 free agents still left to figure out and more possible cuts to discuss...
Let's make some free agency predictions:
Restricted Free Agents
Robert Spillane- Spillane is Pittsburgh's only exclusive rights free agent, meaning should the team extend an offer to the player, the player essentially must accept and cannot negotiate with another club. Spillane filled in quite well in 2020, and for the price tag, the Steelers hold on to a valuable piece of depth at inside linebacker. Spillane stays.
Ola Adeniyi- Ola's short stint in Pittsburgh thus far has been filled with a lot of potential. However, due to limited opportunities and non-freakish play when on the field, he's unfortunately only something of potential in black and gold. Yet when it's all said and done, Adeniyi is a familiar face with knowledge of Keith Butler's scheme. Adeniyi stays.
Jerald Hawkins- While Hawkins appeared in 13 games last year in Pittsburgh, none were as a starting tackle, as the Steelers favored Hawkins as an extra blocker in heavy sets. The Steelers still have some figuring out to do on the offensive line, but Hawkins has solidified himself as one of the best back-up tackles on the roster. Hawkins stays.
Unrestricted Free Agents
Josh Dobbs- The Steelers appear to already have their top three quarterbacks set for the upcoming season, yet a fourth quarterback is always welcome for training camp and preseason. Dobbs has been in and out of Pittsburgh as of late, but at the end of the day, I believe Dobbs may want a fresh start elsewhere with perhaps a better chance of playing than the current situation with the Steelers. Dobbs goes.
James Conner- Conner's story is a remarkable one, and for a stretch of time in the Steel City, he appeared to be the heir to Le'Veon Bell's throne. However, injuries derailed Conner's last few seasons with the Steelers, and I believe a fresh start would benefit both Conner and Pittsburgh. Conner goes.
Cameron Sutton- Sutton has proved himself to be a versatile piece of the Steelers' defensive puzzle, playing nearly anywhere asked of him in the secondary. I believe Sutton's ability to be retained will likely hinge on Mike Hilton's future in Pittsburgh, as the Steelers appear to only be in a position to re-sign one or another. The tea leaves tell me Hilton chases the bag and Sutton finds himself back in black and gold. Sutton stays.
Danny Isidora- Isidora didn't have a great impact in Pittsburgh, as he served as nothing more than another body for what was an injury-plagued season for the offensive line. Isidora appears to be a journeyman in the NFL (PIT was his fifth stop in four years), and his tenure with the Steelers likely already ended before it began. Isidora goes.
Jordan Dangerfield- One of Pittsburgh's captains in 2020, Dangerfield mostly made his mark on special teams, although we did see him as a rotational piece at the safety position. Dangerfield just can't seem to find his way out of the Steelers' special teams plans, and at the age of 31, he still looks a better option to play over the likes of Antoine Brooks Jr. Dangerfield stays.
Chris Wormley- Many Steelers' fans thought Wormley's presence would help replace Javon Hargrave's spot at nose tackle upon his arrival. When the herd eventually picked up on Wormley's inability to effectively play either nose tackle or defensive end, it became clear Wormley just wouldn't pan out in Pittsburgh. The Steelers have plenty of guys under contract to take Wormley's place. Wormley goes.
Jayrone Elliot- Should Ola return to Pittsburgh, that puts my estimates of three back-up linebackers behind the likes of starters T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith. Elliot showcased nothing groundbreaking in terms of play, and with Adeniyi still offering more upside/experience, Elliot finds himself as the odd man out of the Steelers' linebacking room. Elliot goes.
Jordan Berry- After a poor first stint with the Steelers, Berry returned after a failed Dustin Colquitt experiment and proved to be a much better punter than before. The Steelers are suckers for keeping in-house players, and Berry's ending to the 2020 season showed he earned another season in Pittsburgh. Berry stays.
Sean Davis- Davis failed to earn a second contract in Pittsburgh, and upon his second arrival last season, it became clear Davis still wasn't the answer the Steelers were looking for, even in a back-up role. Davis would be nothing more than a special teams contributor, where the Steelers already have pieces. Davis goes.
JuJu Smith-Schuster- What do you mean I can't just casually slide this between less important players? Smith-Schuster has been very adamant about wanting to return to Pittsburgh, and contrary to some odd beliefs, he's an extremely good receiver with a lot of gas left in the tank... However, at the end of the day, I believe the Steelers are comfortable with their current stable of receivers and would use that money to build the team with more urgent needs. Unless he's willing to take less than market value, I just can't see it happening. JuJu likely sees a big payday, and deservingly so. Smith-Schuster goes.
Cassius Marsh- Making just two tackles in the sole game he played in last season, the Steelers were the third team Marsh appeared on in 2020, and I have a feeling that number grows in 2021, especially with more help being brought back to outside linebacker. Marsh goes.
Zach Banner- After winning the starting job at right tackle, Banner's 2020 season came to a screeching halt after tearing his ACL in the first week of the season. After less than impressive play down the stretch for his counterpart in Chukwuma Okorafor, Banner is the favorite to again anchor the right side of the offensive line, and reports lead us to believe the Steelers are intent on keeping him around. Banner stays.
Tyson Alualu- Alualu has quietly emerged as one of Pittsburgh's most underrated players, stepping in quite nicely after Javon Hargrave departed last season. Retaining Alualu may be higher on the priority list for the Steelers than we realize, and his price tag shouldn't break the bank, either. It also feels as if Alualu would like to finish his career in Pittsburgh. Alualu stays.
Mike Hilton- As previously discussed, the Steelers are likely looking at a scenario where they can only retain either Hilton or Sutton. Hilton's social media gives off vibes of him being extremely excited to see what his market looks like, which isn't a good sign for a Steelers team that likely won't be able to match offers. Hilton goes.
Matt Feiler- Feiler played fairly well at right tackle in 2019, so when the Steelers moved a not-so-mobile Feiler to the interior, the move just didn't make sense. Feiler's position switch clearly didn't pay off, and with Kevin Dotson ready to take over the reins as the starter, Feiler will have to look elsewhere for playing time. Feiler leaves.
Alejandro Villanueva- Villanueva's play in 2020 simply didn't get the job done, consistently getting beat and joining Pouncey/DeCastro in aging rather rapidly over the course of the season. Villanueva simply isn't worth the $6 million dollar price tag he saw in 2020, and the Steelers are primed for a youth movement upfront. Villanueva goes.
Avery Williamson- Kevin Colbert has a nice track record of trading late picks for players he won't retain, and Williamson appears to be next in line. Williamson stepped in quite well for Vince Williams, yet his play is almost a carbon copy of Williams', who is still on the team. The next linebacker added to the roster certainly should be a younger, more agile/pass-coverage capable body than Williamson's. Williamson goes.
Bud Dupree- Had Dupree stayed healthy the entire 2020 season, he's looking at serious money for his production the last few years. However, a dropping cap and a recovering ACL tear may put Dupree in a position to accept a lesser-than-anticipated deal, financially speaking. While a one-year "prove it" deal is possible for Dupree to return, Alex Highsmith has shown a lot of promise in his spot, and Dupree likely sees larger figures elsewhere. Dupree goes.
Under Contract Players
Joe Haden- Cutting Haden would save the Steelers $7 million dollars, doubling their current amount of cap space. While this is tempting, Haden's price tag is well worth his play, especially considering the empty void of outside cornerbacks ready to replace him. Haden stays.
Vince Williams- The Steelers could save $4 million dollars if they decide to cut Williams, and with his career slowly coming to a close, it does seem plausible. However, Williams sticks around for another year or two, and maybe even sees his successor drafted during that time. For now, however, Williams remains the heart and soul of Pittsburgh's defense. Williams stays.
David DeCastro- Make no mistake about it, DeCastro's level of play certainly dropped in 2020, and an $8.75 million dollar cap relief is no doubt eye-candy. Whether his play was due to injury or not can be debated, but DeCastro's abilities are without a doubt diminishing with his age. However, there are simply no valid replacements for DeCastro at this point. The Steelers will be happy to hang on to the All-Pro for another season. DeCastro stays.
Stephon Tuitt- While Tuitt's name hasn't been a popular name to sacrifice in the name of cap relief, his $5.6 million in cap savings is a topic to at least monitor... And now that we've monitored it, it's not going to happen. Tuitt stays.
BONUS: Will T.J. Watt Sign an Extension This Offseason?
There's no doubting T.J. Watt is deserving to be handsomely paid, and there's also no doubting if there's one man the Steelers aren't letting leave Pittsburgh, it's Watt. (Shameless plug, if you're curious about what money Watt will see, I answered that in my most recent mailbag) However, with a lowered salary cap and little cash to spend as is, I'm not so sure Watt and the Steelers are able to realistically talk at the moment.
Barring an extension where Watt's cap number is lowered for the upcoming season and the rest of the Fort Knox-like money is backloaded, I believe next offseason is more realistic, should the salary cap sky-rocket like anticipated. Watt doesn't sign a new deal.
Donnie Druin is a Staff Writer with AllSteelers. Follow Donnie on Twitter @DonnieDruin, and AllSteelers @si_steelers.
