Evaluating Numeric Trade Value of Steelers' Second-Round Pick

Should the Steelers want to move up or down in the second round, what would a potential trade look like?

With just a few days left until the 2020 NFL Draft, teams around the NFL prepare to usher in a new wave of players that can (hopefully) propel them to new heights. While the Pittsburgh Steelers are without a first-round pick and just six selections total, the preparation perhaps weighs a bit more to nail this draft. 

There's a plethora of directions Pittsburgh could opt for with the 49th overall pick, and where they go varies on who you talk to. Some pound the table for the favorite offensive playmaker while others insist on adding defensive depth. 

In reality, nobody truly knows what is going to happen. For the Steelers, Friday and Saturday (rounds 2-7) is as much as a guess as ever. In an already cloudy forecast thanks to no first-round pick, COVID-19 has greatly altered the entire draft process, helping shape the uncertainty of the NFL Draft that greatly reflects the current state of the globe. 

For general managers, part of the job is listening to offers on players, picks and anything else that could be of value in a trade. In short, everything has it's price. It doesn't happen often, but sometimes an offer is too good to refuse. Trades like when the Minnesota Vikings offered five players and six picks to the Dallas Cowboys in exchange for Herschel Walker come to mind. 

So while the probability of the Cincinnati Bengals trading out of the Joe Burrow sweepstakes remains extremely rare, the pick will remain open until a few minutes are left on the clock. 

The same sentiment can be carried for Pittsburgh's handful of picks. Steelers General manager Kevin Colbert has been known to wheel-and-deal his way around the draft if he feels appropriate. So, should he want to move up (or down) from pick no. 49, what kind of deal would we see? 

For our evaluation, we will be using CBS Sports' R.J. White's draft pick value calculator, a tool first developed from former Cowboys head coach Jimmy Johnson that assigns a numerical value to each pick in the draft. Through the years, this formula has been tweaked and restructured, but the idea remains the same. 

On a scale of 1-1000, each pick is numbered in accordance with it's value. The number one pick has a value of 1000, while the last pick has a value of 1.25. The idea is for both sides of the trade to retain equal value.

In example, the tenth overall pick has a value of 342.23 out of 1000. If that team wanted to move up to the first overall pick, they would have to trade pick no. 10 and include other draft picks that totaled up to 657.77 to make a "fair" trade (342.23 for the tenth pick, 657.77 for the others to match the 1000 value of the first overall pick.)

Of course, the trade values are subjective when actual business is conducted and aren't solely used to negotiate trades. However, the system does provide a base for formulating trades. 

What are the values of Pittsburgh's six selections? 

Pick 49: 107.56
Pick 102: 29.06
Pick 124: 17.13
Pick 135: 13.78
Pick 198: 3.96
Pick 232: 2.02

Let's make a deal. 

Trading Up

Although Pittsburgh may very well stay put and accept what fate comes with pick no. 49, If you're a betting man and are being forced to choose between the Steelers moving up and moving down, many think Colbert may be wanting to trade down and recoup more draft capital. 

However, in the scenario that Colbert is wanting to roll the dice and trade up from 49, it could very well be done. 

A team like the Miami Dolphins may be willing to trade, given they have the 39th overall selection after three first-round picks on the first night of the draft. Per CBS's system, Miami's 39th pick is valued at 137.68. 

Should the Steelers want to move up ten spots in the second round, the following trade would be deemed "even" by CBS' chart:

Steelers receive: Pick 39 (value of 137.68)
Dolphins receive: Pick 49, 124 and 2021 4th-round pick (value of 138.47)

As previously mentioned, each general manager likely has different values on draft picks. Some may think two fourth-round picks (although separate years) is a tad hefty to move up ten picks in the second round, while front office personnel in Miami may laugh at this offer. 

Should the Steelers only want to jump a few spots up and snag a player they believe won't be there at 49, the price tag shouldn't be too hefty. In example: 

Steelers receive: Pick 45, 161 (126.96)

Tampa Bay receives: Pick 49, 135 (121.34)

Dropping a fourth and picking up a fifth-round pick likely doesn't seem ideal for Steelers fans, but moving up four spots and still retaining all your draft picks isn't a terrible haul if the organization is able to get their guy. 

Moving up (obviously) requires giving a little more in capital, something the Steelers don't necessarily have a lot of. If the Steelers are projected to make any moves, it may be moving down. 

Trading Down

If the team feels they can grab a player a few spots later, trading down appears to be the obvious answer. Perhaps a team like Seattle, who possesses two picks in the back end of the second-round, would like to jump ten spots. The haul may look like this: 

Steelers receive: Pick 59, 101 (113.81)

Seahawks receive: Pick 49, 2021 5th round pick (113.32) 

While fans may not be thrilled to give Seattle another fifth-round pick, this trade sees Pittsburgh getting another third-round pick, and would actually pick consecutively (101, 102) as well. With many gaps to fill, a second and two third-round selections might go a long way in terms of quality. 

Or perhaps the Los Angeles Rams might want to leap three spots, as the team also has multiple second-round picks. While not as significant as the Seattle trade, the Steelers could still gain higher draft picks in a deal such as the following: 

Steelers receive: Pick 52, 2021 4th round pick (110.96) 

Rams receive: Pick 49, 232 (109.58)

Following the charts to negotiate a "fair" deal isn't exactly easy, and like many trades, there will likely have to be some compromise from either side in order for the deal to go down. When trading down, you'll normally seek extra compensation in those deals just to make up for what you're potentially missing out on, so it wouldn't surprise me to see if any of the above trades are considered dry by league executives. 

Yet what if the Steelers are content staying put? 

Trading... Nowhere

We see it every year: Some talent, for whatever reason, gets pushed to the early/mid second-round of the draft. That's good news for Pittsburgh, a team without their first-round pick and just looking to add immediate help to their roster. 

There's no traction of the Steelers moving anywhere out of pick no. 49, and for good reason. With limited ammo, it'll be hard to move up without dishing significant compensation the other way. With considerable talent still there when you're on the clock, you also don't want to out-think yourself and trade down- just to see the handful of guys you wanted are now gone. 

Yet that won't stop Colbert from fielding calls, with the volume of said dials likely to shoot up as the pick draws closer and closer. Teams are always willing to make a deal as long as the price is right, and as previously mentioned, Colbert wouldn't be doing his job if he simply let those go to voicemail. 

The value of the Steelers' second-round pick? It's simply fluid. It may hold enough value to propel Pittsburgh into the early parts of the day, while also potentially being used as a way to get more fresh bodies in the facility. Perhaps the value of the pick remains as it stands, with the Steelers staying put and selecting the best player available. 

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, and that's something draft pick charts aren't capable of measuring.