Week 16 AFC Playoff Scenarios, Steelers Division Title Odds
Another week down, another week where the Pittsburgh Steelers have managed to let best-case scenarios in playoff seeding slip away. Simply put, nothing is going right for the Steelers, and a 27-17 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals showed the Steelers are much further than the team many originally believed them to be.
The good news? Two weeks exist before the games truly start to matter. The bad news? The Steelers, at the moment, have too many issues to sort out and regain their once undefeated form. A final regular season home game vs. the 10-4 Indianapolis Colts is up next for Pittsburgh, with a familiar path to the AFC North crown on the line in week 16.
Current AFC Standings:
1. Kansas City Chiefs (13-1, clinched division)
2. Buffalo Bills (11-3, clinched division)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-3, clinched playoff birth)
4. Tennessee Titans (10-4)
5. Cleveland Browns (10-4)
6. Indianapolis Colts (10-4)
7. Miami Dolphins (9-5)
While still a long shot, the Steelers still have a chance to gain either the number one seed, while also proving capable of dropping all the way to the number six seed should they not win the division. With a wide variety of options, let's take a look at Pittsburgh's playoff scenarios (and others of interest) to watch for in week 16:
*All odds are from BetOnline.ag and up to date as of 12/22
Clinching the AFC North
Pittsburgh win over Indianapolis
OR
Cleveland loss to New York Jets
OR
PIT/CLE both tie
New week, same scenario: Win, and you're the division champs. That's much easier said than done if you're the Steelers, especially not being able to top a Bengals team on their third-string quarterback to secure the top spot in the AFC North.
With a tough matchup vs. Indianapolis and Cleveland set to take on the Jets, some doubt whether or not the Steelers are capable of clinching the AFC North in week 16. However, BetOnline still favors Pittsburgh to win the division, as the Steelers currently sit at -375 favorites. Cleveland currently sits at +275 underdogs.
While the Steelers are divisional favorites, for the time being, they remain +1.5 point underdogs to the Colts for their week 16 meeting, whereas the Browns are -10 point favorites over the Jets.
With only a division title left to clinch this week, Pittsburgh's lone playoff scenario is simple. Yet how does the rest of the conference clinch their respective scenarios?
Other Playoff Scenarios
The Kansas City Chiefs can clinch the AFC's number one seed with either of the following: A win over Atlanta OR a Pittsburgh loss OR a Buffalo loss. There also exists another scenario where KC's strength of schedule tiebreaker could emerge over BUF/PIT's, although it's still exactly unclear what teams would need to win/lose.
There are no doubts oddsmakers think highly of the Chiefs, as the team currently sit as -10.5 point favorites over the Falcons, as well as being AFC champion favorites at -120 (next closest is Buffalo at +500) and Super Bowl favorites at +175 (next closest is Green Bay at +600) heading into this week.
The Cleveland Browns appear all but set to clinch a playoff birth this week, as a plethora of scenarios may work out in their favor: A win over New York + Baltimore loss/tie OR a win + Miami loss/tie OR a win + Indianapolis loss OR a tie + Baltimore loss OR a tie + Miami loss.
The Browns are very likely to make the postseason, and BetOnline appears to agree, setting the Browns at -1600 odds to make an appearance in the postseason. Should they win/the Steelers lose, look for their divisional odds to skyrocket before hosting Pittsburgh.
The Indianapolis Colts are still vying for their own division title, although they can only clinch a playoff berth in week 16 with the following scenarios: A win over Pittsburgh + Baltimore loss/tie OR a win + Miami loss/tie OR a tie + Baltimore loss OR a tie + Miami loss.
Much like the Browns, oddsmakers are fairly confident in the Colts making the postseason, seeing themselves as -1200 favorites to appear in the playoffs. As for winning their division, they sit at +125 odds behind our next team.
The Tennessee Titans can potentially clinch both a playoff berth and the AFC South division this week. The only path to the AFC South crown involves a victory over the Green Bay Packers and Tennessee losing to Pittsburgh. Their playoff berth scenarios are as followed: A win OR Miami loss OR Baltimore loss OR a tie + Baltimore tie.
Tennessee, currently sitting at -155 odds to win the AFC South, don't even have odds listed on the website to wager on their playoff chances, showing how confident oddsmakers are in the Titans to make the postseason.
Donnie Druin is a Staff Writer with AllSteelers. Follow Donnie on Twitter @DonnieDruin, and AllSteelers @si_steelers.