Steelers Have One More Shot to Control Playoff Destiny

The Pittsburgh Steelers are down to their last try.

Dec 21, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers safety Minkah Fitzpatrick (39) intercepts a pass during the second half against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images / Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

PITTSBURGH -- The Pittsburgh Steelers hit another big bump on the road to an AFC North title with a 34-17 loss to the Baltimore Ravens giving each team a 10-5 record. The Steelers traveled to Baltimore with a chance to lock up their first AFC North crown since 2020 with a win. But the loss punched the Ravens' ticket to the playoffs and the Steelers now have to play some pseudo-playoff games to top the division.

With two and some change weeks left of the NFL season, a lot can happen. But the perspective of playoff scenarios has significantly narrowed and the Steelers can see what has to happen to win the division.

How the Steelers Win the Division

The Steelers have needed several teams to win and lose very specific games to make the playoffs in recent seasons. However, this season, the Steelers can control their own destiny. And if they don't take care of business, the Steelers are looking directly at the Ravens.

The easiest, most simple scenario for the Steelers is to win. Although sweeping Baltimore would have allowed the season's final two weeks to be mostly stress-free, the Steelers still control their destiny. If the Steelers win at home against the Kansas City Chiefs and win at home against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 18, the Steelers win the AFC North no matter the outcomes of Baltimore's final two games.

If the Steelers defeat the Chiefs and the Ravens win in Houston in Week 17, but the Steelers fall to the Bengals and the Ravens lose to the Browns in Week 18, the Steelers still win the division. If the Steelers lose to the Chiefs and instead beat the Bengals, the Ravens beat the Texans and lose to the Browns, the Steelers win the division.

If the Steelers end the season on a four-game losing streak including losses to the Chiefs and Bengals in the final two weeks, they can still win the division if the Ravens also lose their final two games. Considering the Steelers would likely be the fourth seed and both teams would enter the playoffs with a 10-7 record, a first-round playoff game between the Steelers and Ravens is very likely in this case.

How the Steelers Do Not Win the Division

Most clearly, if the Steelers lose against the Chiefs and the Bengals, the Ravens defeat either the Texans or Browns, the Steelers will not win the division.

If the Steelers beat the Chiefs but lose to the Bengals, the Ravens lose to the Texans and beat the Browns, the Ravens win the division. In this case, it seems likely the Steelers would travel to Baltimore as the fifth seed for the first round of the playoffs.

The road is rocky. The injuries are starting to pile up. But December and January football is all about battling through adversity and grabbing on what the season has brought up to this point. The Steelers had their chance to secure the division on Saturday against the Ravens but did not. If the Steelers do not defeat the Chiefs on Christmas Day, they no longer control their destiny. They have to hope for a loss from the Ravens to win the division.

One thing is guaranteed, the Steelers will play at least three more football games this season.

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