Steelers' T.J. Watt Loses One DPOY Vote

The advanced stats are holding Pittsburgh Steelers superstar T.J. Watt back from a second Defensive Player of the Year award.

PITTSBURGH -- Pittsburgh Steelers superstar edge rusher T.J. Watt is one of the many candidates to take home the 2023-2024 NFL Defensive Player of the Year award, but if NBC Sports' Peter King had it his way, it'll be Cleveland Browns' Myles Garrett, who wins. 

King explained why he snubbed the Steelers star for Defensive Player of the Year, citing advanced statistics from Pro Football Focus and the Next Gen Stats to back his vote for Garrett. Ranking his top five choices, Watt checked in at No. 3. 

"I picked Garrett. In order, my top five were Garrett, [Micah] Parsons, Watt, [Maxx] Crosby and [Khalil] Mack," King wrote. "Garrett was high in both PFF grade and Next Gen pass-rush metrics, and his team was the number one defense in football."

King said it is a crowded race this season, with as many as nine players deserving of consideration (his top five listed above, plus Josh Allen, Nick Bosa, Danielle Hunter, and Aidan Hutchinson, were all considered). 

He said the stats that differentiate Watt from his contemporaries are traditional and would have easily landed him another Defensive Player of the Year Award. But this is 2024 and with more data at his fingertips, King had more to consider, so he adjusted his evaluation. 

"[Watt has] 4.5 more [sacks] than Crosby and five more than Garrett and Parsons. That matters, getting home more than anyone else. It matters a lot," King wrote. "Per Next Gen Stats, though, Watt had a pressure rate of 13.7 percent per rush—good, but down the list from the best edge-rushers. Watt would have won it in bygone years because of his sack numbers, and his terrific overall play could win it this year when the awards are announced in Las Vegas."

King did add that the debate ultimately comes down to Garrett vs. Watt - who he points out each amassed 86 pressures during the regular season, according to Pro Football Focus. But Garrett's edge in the advanced metrics made him the deserving winner in King's eyes.  

"This contest, as has happened with many of the awards now, has been impacted by advanced metrics," King said. "It used to be, maybe 15 years ago, that you’d look at the sack leaders or the interception leader and give the nod to one of them. But times have changed, with deeper dives into numbers and pass-rush metrics from Next Gen Stats and PFF." 

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