Ranking Steelers Possible Playoff Matchups

The Pittsburgh Steelers face three different paths for the Wild Card round.

Dec 25, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson (3) passes against the Kansas City Chiefs during the fourth quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images / Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

PITTSBURGH -- The Pittsburgh Steelers are locked into the NFL playoffs for the second season in a row. With a previous opportunity to control their own destiny lost due to three-straight losses in a 11 days, the Pittsburgh Steelers can face three different opponents in the first round of the playoffs.

When the Steelers lost to the Kansas City Chiefs on Christmas Day and the Baltimore Ravens dominated the Houston Texans later that afternoon the Ravens took the lead in the race for the AFC North crown. If the Ravens defeat the Browns on Saturday, Jan. 4 evening, the Steelers have no chance of winning the division and hosting a playoff game in the first round.

Depending on perspective, the NFL did the Steelers a disservice or favor by scheduling their Week 18 match-up against the Cincinnati Bengals after the Ravens game. Should the Ravens defeat the Browns just before Steelers-Bengals kicks off, the Steelers will either go to No. 3 seeded Baltimore or No. 4 seeded Houston no matter the result against the Bengals. If the Los Angeles Chargers win in Las Vegas the next day, the Steelers would be seeded sixth and travel to Baltimore. If the Chargers were to lose, the Steelers would be seeded fifth and travel to Houston for the first round of the playoffs.

Should the Ravens lose at home to the Browns in Week 18, the Steelers will know exactly what they are playing for--defeat the Bengals in front of a home crowd and win the division. The Steelers would be seeded third and host the Chargers no matter the result of their visit to Las Vegas.

Ranking The Steelers Possible Playoff Games

3. Los Angeles Chargers

If Steelers fans woke up on the morning of Jan. 5 and saw a game against the Chargers on the calendar, they know what's occurred. Inspired by a Ravens home loss to the Browns, the Steelers must've defeated the Bengals and won the AFC North.

On paper, this is the least difficult situation for the Steelers. Playing at home always has an inherent advantage in the NFL as the crowd and in the Steelers' case, the stadium architecture can truly impact the outcome of a game. But in the playoffs, playing at home is invaluable.

A secondary reward of the playoff system is that when a team hosts a home game they typically also face an easier opponent, or at least an opponent that did not win their division. But the Chargers are no slouch. If they were to defeat the Raiders, the match-up would involve two 11-6 teams. That record is good enough to win the division in many cases, but the Chargers unfortunately share a division with the Chiefs. However, the Steelers have the luxury of facing the Chargers at home once already this season, and they won handily. The axiom is that beating a team twice is hard. But the glass half-full perspective is the Steelers are playing Jeopardy--they already know the answers.

It would be a classic Steelers' loss to undervalue the quality of an opponent and lose a home playoff game. It happened in 2020 when the Steelers lost to their 'little brother', the Cleveland Browns. The Chargers are certainly formidable, but the advantage of playing at home and facing a team already defeated earlier in the season is too much, putting this game in third.

2. Houston Texans

If the Ravens defeat the Cleveland Browns within an hour of the Steelers taking the field on Saturday, the Steelers are playing for a different kind of prize--avoiding a trip to Baltimore.

Although the Steelers would be a visiting team in the playoffs, a situation no team wants to be in, the Texans have looked beatable. The Texans' only points came from a two-point safety against the Ravens on Christmas Day meaning their offense was entirely shut out. A few weeks earlier, the Texans lost by five points to the Tennesee Titans who have only won three games this season. The Texans do get a rematch against the Titans in Week 18. If the Texans win, they will be seeded fourth with a 10-7 record.

The Steelers haven't faced the Texans this year, but they did last year. The Steelers were dominated 30-6 in Houston on Oct. 1, 2023. Texans rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, who would go on to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, passed for 306 yards and two touchdowns in the win. This season, though, Stroud has experienced what is often described as a 'sophomore slump'. After an incredible rookie year, Stroud's numbers and performances haven't been as great.

Another reason the Texans look beatable is their very shaky offensive line who has given up the third most sacks in the NFL this season with 53. The only teams who've given up more sacks are the Bears with 67 and Browns with 64, but much of the blame in those situations is often attributed to the quarterback play. Stroud certainly is somewhat to blame, but if any fan turns on a Texans game they'll see opposing pass rushers getting to Stroud in no time.

A poor pass-protecting offensive line is not a good weakness when the Steelers come to town. The Steelers roster a litany of quality pass rushers that should be able to shred the Texans' porous offensive line. T.J. Watt and Cam Heyward would have a great opportunity to further validate their selection to the Pro Bowl.

The Texans have also suffered an incredibly unfortunate number of injuries to their receivers. Their No. 1 receiver, Nico Collins, was placed on injury reserve with a hamstring injury early in the season but has played without issue since returning in Week 18. The Texans' big-ticket offseason acquisition Stefon Diggs tore his ACL in a late October win against the Indianapolis Colts, leaving him out for the season. Wide receiver Tank Dell, Stroud's best friend who had a standout rookie year, has been through it all. Dell fractured his fibula in Week 13 of last season, was shot in the leg in April before this season, and in Week 16 against the Chiefs suffered a brutal leg injury. Dell was diagnosed with a dislocated kneecap, a torn ACL, and additional damage to his left knee that will hold him out for an unknown amount of time.

It's been an emotional, difficult, and unfortunate season for the Texans. Even if the Texans defeat the Titans in Week 18 the Steelers would visit with a better record and arguable a better resume. The Steelers' biggest strength would go directly against the Texans' biggest weakness, the Texans' receiving core isn't close to full strength, and Stroud has had a less-than-expected sophomore season. All of that might close the gap the Texans gain from playing at home.

1. Baltimore Ravens

In 1976 the Steelers traveled to Baltimore to face the Colts. Up until that point in NFL history, a road win, let alone a dominant win, was almost unheard of. But the Steelers won 40-16 in such a dominant fashion fans weren't even in their seats by the time a plane crashed into the stands five minutes after the game ended. The Steelers would go on to win the Super Bowl that season.

But times have changed. Steelers-Colts was not the rivalry that Steelers-Ravens is today. It's often described as the most hate-filled, sturdiest, most competitive rivalry in the NFL. Neither team would want to travel to their rival's stadium for a playoff game.

Without a doubt, the Steelers' toughest first-round match-up in the playoffs is the Baltimore Ravens. If the Ravens defeat the Browns and the Steelers suffer their fourth-straight loss, the 10-7 Steelers would travel to 12-5 Baltimore as the No. 6 seed.

Steelers-Ravens is often discussed as a rivalry where records do not matter. Strangely, if records did matter, the case could be made the Steelers would love to play this game.

Starting in 2020, the Ravens lost four straight games to the Steelers, then pulled out a win. Then the Ravens lost another four straight games to the Steelers, and just recently on Dec. 21, the Ravens pulled out a win. That's an 8-2 record in the last 10 contests in favor of the Steelers. The Steelers also hold a 3-1 record against the Ravens in the playoffs. However, the Steelers have hosted all four contests and the Ravens won the most recent in 2015 30-17.

As mentioned before, it's tough to beat a team twice. But the Steelers have beaten the Ravens twice in the same season three times since 2020. However, none of those seasons included any playoff games. The Steelers are also disadvantaged by the fact they would have traveled to Baltimore and got their teeth kicked in less than a month before the playoff game.

Before that Week 16 beatdown in Baltimore, it was easy to believe that Ravens' quarterback Lamar Jackson just couldn't play well against, let alone beat the Steelers. Now, Jackson may have shaken that monkey from his back.

After winning his second award last year, Jackson is en route to finishing at least the top three in MVP voting with a good chance at coming in first. Ravens' running back Derrick Henry will likely also finish top three in voting for Offensive Player of the Year. The Ravens' defense which started the season very poor against the pass has improved substantially mainly due to allowing safety Kyle Hamilton to play his more natural position rather than nickel corner.

Strangely, if the Steelers were hosting this game, there's a convincing argument as to why bringing the Ravens to town is the best-case scenario for Pittsburgh. But they are not. Not only would a playoff road trip to Baltimore be the toughest situation the Steelers could find themselves in, but a loss in that game may hurt the worst as well.

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