Mills Last? Analyst Predicts Texans QB's 2022 Season

One NFL analyst has predicted how Texans quarterback Davis Mills' 2022 season will go - and suggests it could be his last in Houston.

Quarterback Davis Mills impressed many with his performances for the Houston Texans in 2021, especially at the tail end of the season. But, regardless of how he performs in 2022, could he be on another team next year?

CBS' Chris Trapasso predicted how each of the starting sophomore quarterbacks will fare in 2022. And while he was relatively upbeat on Mills - especially in comparison to others - he seemed unsure if Mills could do enough this season to tempt the Texans away from drafting competition in what is widely believed to be a stacked quarterback class.

Mills finished the 2021 regular season as the highest-graded rookie quarterback in my season-long series in which I watched all the drop-back throws from the first- and second-year quarterbacks and graded each game. The sixth quarterback picked in a super-hyped class was the best in Year 1. Imagine that. 

While playing with only average athleticism, Mills is dangerous to opposing defenses because of his high-end arm talent and quality accuracy down the football field. He'll play similarly to how he did as a rookie -- with marked albeit small statistical improvement. While it won't be an encouraging enough season for Houston to shy away from a quarterback in the first round of the 2023 draft, Mills will play his way into a quarterback competition next season, maybe even on another team. 

The fact that the Texans did not draft a quarterback this year, trade for a veteran, or pick up a high-end veteran in free agency is proof if it were needed that what general manager Nick Caserio and head coach Lovie Smith have been saying all summer is true - they're sold on Mills.

Granted, things can change on the turn of a dime in the NFL and if 2022 proves a disastrous season for Mills then why wouldn't the Texans reassess their options next season? 

Of course, this is all conjecture and with a new offensive coordinator and reinforcements to both the offensive line and run game, there's every chance the offense around Mills will take a step forward - thus allowing Mills to do the same.

So, what does the Stanford product need to do to take a step forward?

"To find strengths in Mills game, one has to focus on the final three games of his rookie season. Remember, in Year 1 for a quarterback, we're looking for any semblance of flashes to cling to entering the second season," Trapasso said. "In those contests, Mills looked like an established, high-end veteran passer. His 7.5% big-time throw rate was monstrous, and he tossed six touchdowns to just one interception."

Fun fact: Mills led the NFL in passer rating of throws of 20+ yards.

Naturally, there's more to do than just building on his strong arm in order to improve. 

"Mills was a classic rookie under pressure in 2021," Trapasso said. "The sign of the slightest bit of it transformed him from an otherwise 98.1 rated passer to a quarterback with a 60.1 rating. From taking too many sacks to aimlessly throwing the football while falling to the turf to making hurried decisions too often, Mills has to improve when his pocket isn't squeaky clean."

It is worth noting that these prototypical rookie errors did die down as the year progressed and Mills became more comfortable in Houston's offense - but there's a ways to go.

In theory, the return of former Pro Bowl left tackle Laremy Tunsil and the additions of guards A.J. Cann and rookie Kenyon Green should take some of the pressure off of Mills and give him the time he needs to work the pocket and make use of his deep ball accuracy.

However, when it comes to the offense around Mills, Trapasso isn't entirely convinced, saying of the Texans' receiving corps: "while it's gotten better over the past few years, it's still a low-level cast of characters." 

The exception is Brandin Cooks who he describes as "the most underrated wideout in the league since he entered in 2014." 

But outside of the ninth-year receiver, Trapasso didn't seem too excited for Mills.

"Nico Collins flashed as a rookie and has intimidating size, and the perpetually porous offensive line should be stronger with the addition of first-round blocker Kenyon Green," Trapasso said.

Whether or not the Texans eventually look to bring in competition for Mills next offseason is anybody's guess. But given how highly everyone in the building seems to think of Mills - it would come as no surprise if he's around for quite some time.