Can Texans’ C.J. Stroud Hold Off Rams’ Puka Nacua in Offensive ROY Race?

Will Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud be able to hold off Los Angeles Rams receiver Puka Nacua in the race for Offensive Rookie of the Year?

Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud is back from a concussion that cost him each of the last two games, just in time to try to hold off Los Angeles Rams receiver Puka Nacua in the race for Offensive Rookie of the Year. 

USA Today

Stroud -- who has tossed 20 touchdowns to five interceptions for the Texans this season -- remains the favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year, with DraftKings still giving him -1600 odds. 

Meanwhile, Nacua is second in the race from an odds perspective, at +500. The fifth-round pick has had a remarkable season in his own right, with 96 catches for 1,327 yards. 

Nacua needs just 147 receiving yards over the final two games of the season to break the rookie receiving record (1,472) set by Bill Groman of the Houston Oilers back in 1960. Amazingly, Groman did that in just 14 games. 

For a more recent example, Nacua needs 129 yards to top the 1,455 yards that Ja'Marr Chase posted for Cincinnati Bengals in 2021, the second-highest total for a rookie in NFL history. Chase was voted the Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2021. 

At the same time, a year prior to Chase winning Offensive Rookie of the Year, Justin Jefferson of the Minnesota Vikings had to settle for a second-place finish, despite catching 88 passes for 1,400 yards in the final 16-game regular season. That's because Justin Herbert had an excellent rookie season for the Los Angeles Chargers, and right or wrong, quarterbacks always seem to be favored for these type of awards. 

What Recent History Tells Us About C.J. Stroud-Puka Nacua Rookie of the Year Race

The 8-7 Texans have been one of the shocks of the NFL season, but are currently the first team out in the AFC playoff picture. The Rams, meanwhile, have rebounded from a 5-12 season in 2022 and are currently the No. 6 seed in the NFC playoffs, also with an 8-7 record. 

The feeling here is that if Stroud leads the Texans to the playoffs -- which would have been unthinkable before the season -- he'll win Offensive Rookie of the Year going away. He may win it even if the Texans fall just short, because they've already massively overachieved relative to preseason expectations. 

It will be interesting, though, if Stroud struggles over the final two games and the Texans miss the playoffs to see how voters react. If Nacua -- albeit in a larger sample size -- breaks the rookie receiving record and helps his team to reach the postseason, will he be able to peel off enough voters to make a late push for Offensive Rookie of the Year?