Texans Own Early Season Success Could Hurt Development of Draft Capital

As the season draws to a close, we'll learn if the Houston Texans' tie against an expected playoff contender was actually a loss.

The Houston Texans started off the season with fourth-quarter leads in each of their first two games. 

Neither lead held up. 

In Week 2, the result was a loss to the Denver Broncos. 

The week prior, the Texans ended up in a tie with the Indianapolis Colts. 

Both results were considered moral victories and signs of better days ahead for Houston. 

None of that hope has turned into wins, however, and now the Texans are looking forward to the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. 

Assuming they don't mess that up too. 

But in a swift twist of irony, the near win over the Colts which was once considered a beacon of potential against an expected playoff contender may actually serve to knock the Texans down the draft boards a peg when April comes around. 

That's because while Houston holds the top pick by more than one game with just four to go, Indianapolis has proven to be less-than-stellar themselves and currently possesses a top 10 pick if the season were to end today. 

The Texans have a second pick in the first round via the Cleveland Browns in their trade for quarterback Deshaun Watson. 

After losing to the Cincinnati Bengals last week, that pick matured to No. 12 overall. 

And with a 5-8 record, further losses could turn that pick into another top-10 selection. 

Unfortunately, Cleveland is favored to win its next two games. And the Colts are projected to lose. 

But even if Houston got some breaks and the Browns and Colts were to finish with matching losses as they do now, that tie would come back to hurt them. 

Because that tie would mean Cleveland has one more win than Indianapolis, and push that pick back one spot. 

And nothing is worse than picking right after a divisional rival. 

Sure, having the top pick - hopefully - makes it easier to swallow. But if Houston is going to climb the divisional ladder quicker than expected, picking twice before any other AFC South rivals get a crack at the board would provide a significant advantage.

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