'Team of Destiny': Surprising Houston Texans '78-Percent Chance' of Making AFC Playoffs?

'Team of Destiny'? Surprising Houston Texans Move Up in AFC Playoff Picture ... With One Formula Giving Them a 78-Percent Chance of Making the NFL Postseason

Somewhere, maybe in a filing cabinet somewhere or maybe just stashed in the back of their minds, the people who run the Houston Texans envisioned rookie coach DeMeco Ryans and rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud bringing competitive football back to this part of Texas ...

Eventually. Right? A "three-year plan''? "Patience''? Something like that.

But now we know that the Texans "in the arena'' have earned the right to other thoughts and bigger dreams.

With Sunday's results from NFL Week 13 in the books - results that include yet another clutch Texans win, this one over Russell Wilson's Denver Broncos - Houston is 7-5 and movin' on up in the AFC playoff race.

The Texans are still pressing their noses against the glass, just barely on the outside looking in. Oh, and there is a crowd of competitors also fogging up the glass.

But here they are. Amazingly ... or, at least, "amazing'' to us.

© Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

We'll dig into the stack below, but first, consider this: The New York Times' calculations of Houston's playoff shot now have the Texans with a "78-percent chance'' of making the postseason.

The NYT’s simulator now has the Texans at 78% for the playoffs. They were barely over 50% earlier today.

Enormous result, the type that can swing a season pic.twitter.com/g5beNvEwFz

— Ben DuBose (@BenDuBose) December 4, 2023

Yes, really.

The Texans and the Indianapolis Colts both won and moved up to seven wins in the AFC. The Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers both lost, so they slid down to 7-5, where there is now a four-way tie.

Who's who in the AFC race? A look ...

Division Leaders

1. Miami (9-3)

2. Baltimore (9-3)

3. Jacksonville (8-3)

4. Kansas City (8-4)

Wild Card Race

5. Pittsburgh (7-5)

6. Cleveland (7-5)

7. Indianapolis (7-5)

8. Houston (7-5)

9. Denver (6-6)

10. Buffalo (6-6)

11. Cincinnati (5-6)

12. Los Angeles Chargers (5-7)

13. Las Vegas (5-7)

You see here the application (we think!) of the tiebreakers that keep Pittsburgh in, at No. 5 spot ... with Cleveland right behind. And by virtue of the Colts' early-season win over the Texans play, Indy gets the No. 7 slot.

"Destiny''? "Control''? For the Texans, not exactly ... though if the Texans take care of business in the coming weeks? It's Houston vs. Indy in the Week 18 rematch that could mean a playoff spot on the line.

Jimmie Ward with one of the biggest plays of the season for the Texans. CBS: “The Texans are very much in the playoff picture.”
pic.twitter.com/44AlwVATBy

— Mark Berman (@MarkBerman_) December 3, 2023

Said Pro Bowl left tackle Laremy Tunsil: "We've been through a lot of ups and downs. Having said that, there's more work to do.''