My Two Cents: My Annual Over/Under NFL Picks on Number of Wins in 2023
NASHVILLE — It's one of my favorite exercises of the year, picking three NFL teams that I think will outperform their projected win totals, and three that won't. I've been doing it for decades, and it's fun to watch how it all plays out during the course of the long season.
It's always fun because the NFL is in flux year after year like no other pro sport. We've had a few dynasties that you could always count on, but there are also several teams that rise and fall each year.
It's simple process, really. I take the list of all 32 teams, with the over/under gambling line on total wins for the season. Here's the list, updated on Tuesday. CLICK HERE And then I pick three overachievers that I think will surpass their number and three teams that will far short of expectations.
I went 5-1 last year, sadly getting all three losers correct. I say sadly, because it was the two of the three teams that I've had a rooting interest in during some point in my life — the Chicago Bears and Indianapolis Colts — along with the Denver Broncos.
They were all horrible a year ago. The line on the Bears was six wins, and they got three. The Colts were projected to get 10 wins, and had four. Denver was also projected to win 10 games with Russell Wilson's arrival, but only won five.
I guessed right on the overs with Buffalo (11.5 and won 13) and Philadelphia (9.4 and won 14), but missed on the Green Bay Packers, who were favored to win 11 but only got eight.
I've had a winning record almost every year, so let's see if the streak continues.
And as for the Tennessee Titans, the NFL team I cover on a regular basis? Their line is 7.5, and I just have no clue either way on this one.
They've stayed healthy in the preseason, for the most part, and I think they can be pretty good. But I'm also really worried about the offensive line, and their young quarterbacks just aren't ready if 35-year-old veteran Ryan Tannehill gets hurts. So I have no real feel for this exercise, but we'll be releasing our picks on the Titans on Thursday.
Three teams to go over the total
Kansas City Chiefs (11.5)
I understand there are some reasons for concern with the defending world-champion Kansas City Chiefs, with stud defensive tackle Chris Jones still holding out and all-world tight end Travis Kelce suddenly dealing with a knee injury.
To me, they are still the best team in the league, and they have the best quarterback in Patrick Mahomes. I don't like the AFC West at all, and their schedule — though difficult week after week for long stretches — will provide plenty of opportunity for wins.
But I absolutely can't find six losses. Not with Mahomes and coach Andy Reid, the best 1-2 punch at QB-coach in the game, and it's not even close. I'll feel better if Kelce is OK and Jones gets back, but I still feel pretty good about this one.
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) and coach Andy Reid chat during a timeout. (Robert Hanashiro/USA TODAY Sports)
Jacksonville Jaguars (9.5)
I've been a big Trevor Lawrence fans since his college days at Clemson, and I think Doug Peterson is a heck of an NFL coach. They won nine games a year ago, and I can definitely see them winning at least one more. I think 11 or 12 might even be possible.
They are the only decent team in the abysmal AFC South. The Colts are a mess, the Texans will be better but they've got a lot way to go and the Titans still have some question marks too. I can see them going 5-1 in the division. They also play the NFC South — the worst division in that conference — so I can see the wins piling up.
I feel pretty comfortable with them getting to 10 or better, especially if Lawrence plays the top-10 quarterback everyone sees in him.
Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) walks off the field after beating the Tennessee Titans on Jan. 7, 2023 to win the AFC South title. (Corey Perrine/USA TODAY Sports)
New Orleans Saints (9.5)
The AFC is so much better than the NFC this year, so I went searching for an NFC team that I think could easily overachieve. There were a handful of options, but I really like what the New Orleans Saints can do.
First off, they avoid the AFC gauntlet by playing the AFC South this year. That helps, and they are also the best team — by far — in the NFC South. Sure, Atlanta and Carolina are getting better, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Saints will be favored in all six division games.
I think quarterback Derek Carr will benefit from a fresh start — and an escape from the craziness that is the Los Angeles Raiders. I can see him having a big year, and I think there are plenty of soft spots on their schedule. They need to get through the first three games without stud running back Alvin Kamara (suspension) but they should be fine.
Three teams to go under the total
Indianapolis Colts (6.5)
This Indianapolis Colts team is a mess right now, and there's no way I can picture them winning seven games. This disaster with standout running back Jonathan Taylor not playing and demanding a trade really causes a problem, and it's compounded by the fact that the Colts are going with rookie Anthony Richardson at quarterback.
The kid has a boatload of potential, but he is very raw. He barely started the equivalent of one season in college (Florida), and is not an accurate passer yet, nor does he have a chance of deciphering elaborate NFL defenses in real time.
I'll really be surprised if the Colts can win five games, even in a division that's not the greatest. But get to seven wins? No chance.
Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor stands near other running backs during drills at training camp. He is demanding a trade in a contract dispute. (Mykal McEldowney-USA TODAY Sports)
Arizona Cardinals (4.5)
The Arizona Cardinals have the lowest wins total on the board at only 4.5 wins, and I'm still going under. This team is a mess right now, with quarterback Kyler Murray out for the year more than likely, and untested guys expected to man the most important position in sports.
Worst of all, the Cardinals really don't care if they win a lot of games this year. They have been stockpiling draft capital, and they really want the first pick in the 2024 NFL draft. No one likes the word ''tanking,'' but it's very clear that the Cardinals won't be crying over the losses as they pile up.
I could really see this team going 2-15, and if you forced me to pick the two wins, I'd struggle with that, too. There's no way this team can win five games.
Denver Broncos (8.5)
I will be the first to admit that the Denver Broncos got it right in hiring Sean Payton as their next coach. That's a massive upgrade, of course. But I still don't think this team is a playoff contender, and I'll be surprised if they finish with a winning record.
I have a lot of respect for all that Russell Wilson did in Seattle, but he's on a quick downward spiral and isn't even a top-15 quarterback in the league anymore in my book. Add to that a ton of injuries at the receiver position, and this is a team in trouble.
They might win their first two games (Commanders, Raiders), but in their next eight games they play Chicago, Miami, Kansas City and Buffalo on the road and play the New York Jets, Kansas City again, Green Bay and Minnesota at home. That's two wins, maybe. There's no way they can get to nine.
Denver quarterback Russell Wilson (3) is on a downward slide, and it seems unlikely that he can lead. the Broncos to the playoffs this season. (Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports)
Related 2023 NFL season stories
- OVER/UNDERS FOR ALL 32 TEAMS: One of the favorite futures bets every year is picking which way your team will go with their wins total, over or under the set line. We've got the numbers for all 32 NFL teams here to get your wagers in before the 2023 NFL season starts on Thursday night, plus this week's schedule. CLICK HERE
- VRABEL SUCCESS VS. NFC TEAMS: Since Mike Vrabel took over the Tennessee Titans in 2018, the team has gone 15-7 against NFC opponents, which is a good sign considering they open the season on Sunday against the New Orleans Saints of the NFC South. Vrabel's .682 winning percentage is fourth-best in the NFL during that time. Here's the full history against the NFC during his time in Nashville. CLICK HERE
- AFC SOUTH CHAMPS YEAR-BY-YEAR: There have been 21 division champions since the AFC South was formed in 2002, with the Jacksonville Jaguars winning the most recent title in 2022. The Tennessee Titans have won four division titles, and the Indianapolis Colts lead the way with nine. CLICK HERE
