Taking A Quarterback First Overall Does Not Guarantee Success

There's no denying that the quarterback is the most critical position on a football field, but drafting one first overall isn't always a recipe for success.

Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports

NASHVILLE - The Tennessee Titans are likely in the quarterback market ahead of the 2023 NFL season, but there's a good chance they could be left out. 

A few short weeks ago, the Titans were among teams rumored to be interested in making a deal with the Chicago Bears for the No.1 overall draft pick, but that rumor never materialized. Instead, the Carolina Panthers leaped to the top and paid a heavy price.   

Most believe the Panthers moved up to secure their future quarterback, in either CJ Stroud or Bryce Young, though some have suggested that Anthony Richardson could now be their guy. 

However, over the last ten drafts, where quarterbacks went first overall, the success rate of those teams in hitting a home run has been slim. 

Over the last 14 NFL Drafts, ten quarterbacks have taken No.1 overall. 

Matthew Stafford (2009), Sam Bradford (2010), Cam Newton (2011), Andrew Luck (2012), Jameis Winston (2015), Jared Goff (2016), Baker Mayfield (2018), Kyler Murray (2019), Joe Burrow (2020), and Trevor Lawrence (2021).   

Of those ten quarterbacks drafted No.1 overall in their respective classes, only three, Stafford, Newton, and Burrow, have made it to a Super Bowl to this point, with Stafford being the only one to have captured the Lombardi Trophy. Even then, Stafford did it with a team other than the one that initially drafted him.

Newton took the Panthers to the brink of a championship, losing his lone Super Bowl appearance to Peyton Manning.  

Granted, the jury is still out on Lawrence, who showed remarkable improvement from his rookie season to his second campaign, and Burrow, who took his team to the big game in his second year, is set to be a long-term franchise quarterback. 

As for Bradford, Luck (who was on his way to stardom before abruptly retiring), Winston, Goff, Mayfield, and Murray, none have produced at or near the level of the No.1 overall picks they were when drafted. 

Entering the '23 draft, there are no guarantees of success for whoever is taken by Carolina with the No.1 overall pick, and if anything, the odds are stacked against their success. 

At the same time, the odds didn't stop those quarterbacks who have excelled over the years, and it's far better to have a chance at a franchise-changing signal-caller than being left without.  

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