Gurley's Release Should Give Titans Pause With Henry

Running backs' respective workloads, production in advance of contract negotiations comparable

The Tennessee Titans likely did not think twice about their decision to retain running back Derrick Henry.

However, franchise officials no doubt will take some time as they ponder their next move. After all, long-term contracts for running backs are one of the NFL’s great crapshoots. There are no sure things.

Witness the Los Angeles Rams and their choice Thursday to waive running back Todd Gurley, who not long ago raised the bar for what running backs could be paid. His four-year, $60 million extension set records – at the time – for guaranteed money ($45 million) and average annual salary at the position ($15 million). He agreed to that pact, which was to run through 2023, at the start of training camp in 2018 but fewer than two years later is out of a job.

The decision will cost the Rams a little more than $20 million in dead money over the next two years but will spare them a $10.5 million roster bonus he was due Friday.

Gurley carried 535 times for 2,556 yards with 30 touchdowns in the two seasons prior to that negotiation. He also caught 124 passes for 1,368 yards and 10 touchdowns and was the NFL’s 2017 Offensive Player of the Year. In 2019, he rushed for a career-low 857 yards and averaged 3.8 yards per carry, more than half a yard worse than his career average at the start of the season.

Henry, the league’s 2019 rushing champion, has produced almost identical numbers – 518 carries for 2,599 yards and 28 touchdowns – over the past two seasons. He also became the first player since 2005 to lead the league in rushing yards in the regular season and playoffs.

The Titans ensured his presence on their 2020 roster Monday when they tendered him with the non-exclusive franchise tag. They now have until July 15 to negotiate a long-term extension with him – if they want – or he will play this season on a one-year contract worth $10.278 million.

“When you do a deal – regardless of the position – if the player works out, it looks great,” general manager Jon Robinson said last month at the NFL Scouting Combine. “If it doesn’t work out, then I look like an idiot. That’s the way it goes. That’s what I signed up for.”

Robinson was not the Titans’ general manager when the franchise went through a protracted – and somewhat acrimonious – negotiation with Chris Johnson in 2012. That was after his fourth season, as is the case with Henry.

Ultimately, he signed a four-year, $53.975 million extension following a 34-day training camp holdout. It did not work out well for Tennessee.

Johnson was released two years later. During his final season with the franchise he rushed for 1,077 yards and averaged 3.9 yards per carry – both career-lows at that point. He played four more years for two different teams but never produced another 1,000-yard effort.

It is worth noting that Johnson had 1,187 carries as well as 194 receptions through his first four seasons (1,381 total touches). Similarly, Gurley amassed 1,042 rushes and 187 receptions (1,229 touches) through his first four.

Henry, on the other hand, was the backup to DeMarco Murray for most of his first two seasons and has never figured prominently in Tennessee’s passing game. He has 804 rushes and 57 receptions through his first four seasons, 70 percent of Gurley’s total and 62.3 percent of Johnson’s total at the same point of their respective careers.

The Titans have no reason to expect his production will dip this season. It will happen eventually, though. The trick is to try and anticipate when – and not to have it cost them money.

“If (Henry) has a great career, which we expect him to, and continue to build on the foundation that he’s laid here for us,” Robinson said, “it’ll be good for all of us.”