Titans Going Over 7.5 Wins Named a 'Best Bet' by Pro Football Focus

How many wins the Tennessee Titans will have in 2023 is a question that will get a wide range of responses, but according to Pro Football Focus, the Titans are a "best bet" to go over their 7.5 win over/under total.

NASHVILLE — The Tennessee Titans' 2023 win total may be one of the least agreed upon things in the football landscape. Fans of the team remain optimistic while a lot of media pundits see the Titans as one of the worst teams in the league. 

That is why it is a bit of a surprise to see the Titans highlighted as a "best bet" to go over their 7.5 win projection by Ben Brown of Pro Football Focus(PFF) in a recent simulation. PFF took every NFL teams' over/under total from FanDuel and used their simulation tool to see which teams have the best shot of going over.

The simulation had the Titans winning 8.56 games. Obviously, it is not possible to win 8.56 games, but that means the Titans most likely win 8 or 9 games, either of which would be above the 7.5-win marker. This is what PFF had to say about naming the Titans a "best bet" to go over.

"Tennessee has the second-easiest schedule of any team in the AFC and the fourth-easiest schedule overall. Yes, this steam might not know who its long-term quarterback will be — or have even one wide receiver who an average NFL fan can name — but we have seen this same song and dance before with head coach Mike Vrabel."

Schedule is a big factor in these discussions. The Titans finished first in the AFC South in back-to-back years and that led to a schedule filled with other first-place teams. Now, with the Titans finishing second in 2022, they will not face the same difficulty as they have recently.

It isn't just the Titans' schedule that factors here. The Jaguars will have a rude awakening ahead. The Jaguars played a last-place schedule in 2023 — and still barely beat the Titans' JV team for the division — and this year will face a first-place schedule. 

Seeing some of the league's best teams like the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals will make it much harder for the Jaguars to repeat as division champions. While the Jaguars' schedule won't directly impact the amount of wins the Titans have, it will affect their goal throughout the season.

If the Jaguars have a similar record to last year, the Titans will be within striking distance all year. This means what happened in the Dallas Cowboys game in Week 17 of 2022 where the team purposefully sat their starters and took the loss, won't happen.

The Titans have Mike Vrabel and should have motivation to maximize wins, so PFF seems to be making a smart call by touting the Titans as a "best bet" to go over their projected win total.

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