Can Vrabel Do Enough To Be Coach of The Year?

The Titans are one of eight NFL franchises that have never had a winner

NASHVILLE – Odds are that the Tennessee Titans can’t win enough games in 2020 for Mike Vrabel to be named NFL Coach of the Year.

As he prepares for his third season, though, the odds on the Titans’ head man actually collecting that honor are not bad.

FanDuel this week listed Vrabel as a 20-1 shot. Two others – San Francisco’s Kyle Shanahan and Cleveland’s Kevin Stefanski – offer the same potential payoff. Just six coaches led by New England’s Bill Belichick and Dallas’ Mike McCarthy at 12-1 are considered better bets.

Since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger 24 of the 32 NFL franchises have had a Coach of the Year winner. The Titans/Oilers are one of the eight that have not.

There are two significant factors that will work against Vrabel in his bid to break into that club this season.

One is that voters tend to favor newcomers who make an immediate impact on their teams, particularly those that deliver division titles.

“It’s important to note that four out of the last 10 Coach of the Year awards have gone to first-year head coaches and eight of the last 10 have gone to coaches who have won the division,” Frankie Taddeo, SI fantasy and gambling analyst, said.

The Titans are the co-favorites to win the AFC South but after four straight 9-7 seasons and a runner-up finish in 2019, it would take a significant jump for Vrabel to catch the attention of voters. Six of the last eight winners had teams with losing records the previous season and five delivered an improvement of seven victories or more.

Baltimore’s John Harbaugh went against the trends last season when he was named Coach of the Year after his Ravens improved from 10-6 in 2018 to 14-2 in 2019. He also won in 2011, when his Ravens had an identical record as the previous year (12-4).

In between Harbaugh’s two wins, the average increase in victories authored by the seven winners was 6.6.

If that is the standard, the Titans would need to win at least 15 games – or go undefeated – for Vrabel to get the nod. Many others will have a much easier path.

“The only coach that really checks both of those boxes this year is Mike McCarthy of the Dallas Cowboys,” Taddeo said. “… He has a significant opportunity to improve up an 8-8 campaign last season for the Cowboys, and I actually think there’s a solid chance that they’re the favorites to win the NFC East.”