Reasons To Believe: Titans at Patriots

New England has a dramatic edge in playoff history and success; Tennessee has been better in recent weeks

NASHVILLE – The Tennessee Titans are not the weekend’s biggest underdogs.

Still, they’re going to have to overcome the odds – and a whole lot of history – if they are to beat the New England Patriots in Saturday’s AFC wild card contest and move on to next weekend.

The Patriots have more postseason wins (11) in the past five years than the Titans have managed in any regular season since 2008. They have sure-fire Hall of Famers for a coach and a quarterback and they are the defending Super Bowl champions.

“It's a tough test, but we are excited,” cornerback Logan Ryan said. “I love this team, and we've stuck together all season. We are playing well, but we know we have to play even better."

Three reasons to believe the Titans will win Saturday

• Momentum matters: Tennessee enters the postseason with wins in five of their last seven games and 30 or more points scored in each of those five victories. That surge got the Titans into the NFL’s top 10 in scoring offense. New England has lost three of its last five and has scored more than 24 points just once in the second half of the season. The Patriots still rank seventh in scoring offense, but at this point it will be up to them to keep pace with the Titans.

• Men at the top: The Titans’ offense looks to have the ability to answer anything an opposing defense might throw at it. Running back Derrick Henry is the NFL’s leading rusher (1,540 yards) and is tied for the lead in rushing touchdowns (16). Quarterback Ryan Tannehill is the league leader in yards per pass attempt (9.6) and was one of three NFL quarterbacks to complete more than 70 percent of his passes (70.3). Rookie wide receiver A.J. Brown was one of two players with at least 1,000 receiving yards (1,051) and an average of better than 20 yards per reception (20.2) and no NFL wide receiver averaged more yards after the catch (8.94). It’s tough to imagine any defense can minimize the impact of all three.

• Finish with flourish: Tennessee was third in the NFL in third-quarter scoring (6.9 points per game), second in fourth-quarter scoring (9.1 per game) and first in second-half scoring at 16 points per game. Three of the four games on wild card weekend in 2018 were decided by six points or fewer and two featured fourth-quarter lead changes. Given the nature of playoff football, the ability to score late is a valuable attribute.

Three reasons to believe the Titans will lose Saturday

• Simply the best: They’re the Patriots and they have Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, the most successful coach-quarterback combination in NFL history. Since Belichick became head coach in 2000, New England is 267-93 including playoffs. That’s a 74.2 winning percentage. No other NFL team has more than 220 wins or better than a 64.1 winning percentage. There’s also the six Super Bowl wins, including three in the last five years. Until someone beats them, they’re still the team to beat.

• Get to the points: New England had the NFL’s best defense in 2019. That unit allowed just 20 touchdowns in 16 games and allowed an average of 14.1 points per game. The Patriots also led the NFL with 25 interceptions and a plus-21 turnover ratio and scored three touchdowns on interception returns and two on fumble returns. They also registered 47 sacks, which tied for sixth in the league. This is a unit that can make even good offenses look bad.

• Division of labor: The Patriots did not have a 1,000-yard rusher, but Sony Michel finished 17 in the league with 912 rushing yards and fellow running back James White was second among all AFC running backs with 645 receiving yards and third with 72 receptions. Between them they scored 13 touchdowns. Rex Burkhead, who does a little of both, adds to the mix at that position. The Titans defense will have to be aware of which running back is on the field and how to limit what they do best.

The bottom line

Beating the Patriots is never easy. Doing so in the playoffs is even harder.

However, this is a Titans team that is much more suited to the challenge than the one that went to Foxboro for the divisional round two years ago. It won’t take an extraordinary effort to win this one. They simply have to do the same things they have done over the past two months.

That’s not to say it will be easy. But it’s possible. Very possible.