Division Math Shows How Titans Came up Short

Mike Vrabel has never had a losing record in AFC South games, but as many wins as losses – as was the case this season – is not good enough.

Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA Today Network

At this point, they account for barley one-third of the games on the regular-season schedule. Yet their importance is exponentially larger than that.

Just ask the Tennessee Titans.

NFL teams play the others in their division twice each. That’s a total of six games out of 17 but being the best team in those games almost always makes you the best team in the division.

Had the Titans defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars on Saturday night, they would have finished with a losing record. But they also would have been the only team in the AFC South to win more than half of their division contests – and they would have finished in first place and would be preparing for a playoff game.

Instead, Tennessee fell 20-16 after the Jaguars’ defense scored the decisive touchdown on a fourth-quarter fumble return. It gave Jacksonville a sweep of the season series, left the Titans 3-3 overall against their division opponents and second in the standings.

The Jaguars, at 4-2, were the only AFC South team with a winning record in division games. At 9-8 overall, they finished two games clear of the Titans (7-10).

“These games are never easy, and I don't care what the score is,” Jacksonville coach Doug Pederson said following the contest. “I just want more points than the opponent. That's a great football team. My hats off to [Titans coach] Mike [Vrabel]. He had his guys ready to go. It's always a physical game with them.”

In the history of the AFC South, which dates back to 2002, only one team has finished first without winning the majority of its division games. That was the Indianapolis Colts in 2006, when they went 3-3 but 12-4 overall, four games ahead of the second-place Titans, who were 4-2 in the division.

In five years in charge of Tennessee, Vrabel never has had a losing record against the AFC South. Overall, his teams are 7-3 against Jacksonville and 6-4 against both Houston and Indianapolis.

That’s the good news.

The bad news is that he’s had a winning record just twice. The Titans went 5-1 against the Jaguars, Colts and Texans in 2020 and 2021. Not coincidentally, Tennessee finished in first place each of those years.

In each of the other three, the Titans broke even at 3-3 in division games. They finished third (2018), second (2019) and second (2022).

“We are used to putting that hat and t-shirt on," safety Kevin Byard said via the team’s website. "But it didn't end that way. It's a disappointing way to end the year."

This season actually started in a promising fashion. With a sweep of Indianapolis and an early victory at Houston, Tennessee won its first three division games and looked well on its way to another division crown. At that same point, Jacksonville was 2-6 overall, 1-2 in the division.

A seven-game losing streak to end the season, however, included three straight division defeats, capped by Saturday’s loss to the Jaguars, who won three division games in the last five weeks.

“I mean, nobody wants to finish how we did,” Titans running back Derrick Henry said. “It’s never the plan, never the goal. But, like I said, stuff happens, adversity happens. Did we want to win the division and have a great record? Yeah, but it didn’t happen this year, so what are you going to do? It’s over with now. All we can do is go back to work and be thankful for the journey and everybody and their efforts and look forward to next year.”