Will Henry Return to Dominance in 2022?

The Titans' running back is the favorite to be NFL Comeback Player of the Year, but not all prognosticators are convinced.

NASHVILLE – One of the biggest questions for the Tennessee Titans looking ahead will be what to expect from running back Derrick Henry after he missed more than half the 2021 regular season with a broken foot.

There was a one-game sample size of post-injury Henry during the Titans’ playoff loss to Cincinnati when he carried 20 times for 62 yards (3.1-yard average) and a touchdown. But that game alone is probably not much of an indicator moving forward. Henry hadn’t played since Oct. 31 and was operating at less than 100 percent.

So what’s the belief for 2022?

Should we automatically expect the former All-Pro to return to prime King Henry form of 2019 and 2020 when he averaged 341 carries, 1,784 yards (5.2-yard average), and 17 touchdowns and won back-to-back rushing titles?

Or is it more likely that the 28-year-old's numbers aren’t quite as great in 2022, potentially because of overall wear and tear, as well as the foot injury’s lingering impact?

Judging from some early predictions and betting lines, Henry will come roaring back.

In his annual NFL Projection Guide, for instance, ESPN prognosticator Mike Clay sees Henry picking right up where he left off – in terms of both volume and productivity. He predicts Henry will carry the football a league-high 349 times in 2022, totaling 1,488 yards (second only to Indianapolis’ Jonathan Taylor at 1,570) and scoring 11 rushing touchdowns (second only to Taylor’s 13).

The gambling website www.BetOnline.ag sees Henry bouncing back as well, as it lists Henry as the favorite for NFL Comeback Player of the Year at +550, followed by Saints quarterback Jameis Winston (+700), Saints receiver Michael Thomas (+900), Carolina running back Christian McCaffery (+900) and Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson (+1,200).

Side note: Two other players with Titans ties are on the list of favorites for Comeback Player of the Year. Atlanta’s Marcus Mariota is 10th (+1,400) and current Tennessee wide receiver Robert Woods is 15th (+2,500).

The BetOnline odds on Henry reflect the belief that his comeback will return him to elite status, as the website gives him 6-1 odds at leading the NFL in rushing in 2022, trailing only Taylor (5-1 odds), and ahead of Minnesota’s Dalvin Cook and Cleveland’s Nick Chubb (each at 10-1).

One note of caution among the early 2022 projectors comes from Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis, who points out that Henry’s yards after contact have dipped in each of the past two seasons and that Henry is the oldest of the league’s top running backs.

Still, Hribar lists Henry fourth among running backs for fantasy purposes. Never mind that Henry doesn’t offer much in terms of receiving yards.

“The questions for Henry,” Hribar writes, “are how long he can keep this up and if last season was inevitable due to the massive workload he has carried per game the past three seasons.”

Only Henry will be able to answer those concerns this Fall.

But it’s easy to imagine him using the questions as fuel and motivation this offseason, as Henry grinds through one impossible workout after another.