Can Less Henry Mean More Offense in 2023?

Coaches have relied heavily on the two-time NFL rushing champion in recent years, but this season the returns – particularly on early downs – decreased.

NASHVILLE – One of the first questions Tennessee Titans coach Mike Vrabel and his as-yet unnamed offensive coordinator will have to answer is how much of the offense will run through Pro Bowl running back Derrick Henry in 2023.

Over the last four years combined, the Titans have ridden Henry more than any other team in the NFL has used a running back.

Since 2019, Henry leads the NFL in combined carries (1,249), yards (6,042), touchdowns (56) and first downs (290) by wide margins. He’s averaged 109.9 rushing yards per contest during that stretch, over 30 yards more than Las Vegas’ Josh Jacobs (79.0), who’s second behind Henry in that category.

So why not stick with the same approach, considering the Titans have gone 39-27 during those four seasons, reaching the playoffs in 2019, 2020 and 2021 before missing out last year?

The obvious answer is because something needs to change after last year’s abominable overall offensive production, which saw the Titans average just 17.5 points per game (28th in the NFL) – almost two touchdowns per game fewer than they averaged in 2020 (30.7 points per game) and a touchdown less than they averaged in 2021 (24.6 points per game).

That’s not to say Henry himself had much to do with the problem.

The two-time rushing champion finished second in the NFL in rushing yards (1,538), third in runs of 10-plus yards (37), tied for second in runs of 20-plus yards (10) and tied for first in 40-plus yards (four).

But it’s certainly possible the Titans’ strategies of when to run Henry – and how often to run him – need to change.

One example that will resonate with a lot of frustrated Titans fans: On first-and-10 situations last season, the Titans ran the ball 245 times, the fourth-highest figure in the NFL. But they only gained 983 yards on those first-and-10 carries, which ranked 15th.

Does that mean the Titans were too predictable on first down? Perhaps so. But they have ranked among the top four when it came to the number of first-and-10 runs for the last four years. It’s just that in 2022, the returns weren’t nearly as good as they were during the previous three seasons.

The usual heavy run emphasis didn’t seem to help the Titans’ play-action game as much in 2022 as in the previous three seasons either.

Quarterback Ryan Tannehill graded out at 81.7 in play-action passing in 2022, per Pro Football Focus, the first time he’d finished below 90.0 in his four years with the Titans.

There’s also the ever-present question – especially as it pertains to running backs – of how much tread remains on the tires.

Henry turned 29 earlier this month, and although (as referenced above), he’s still one of the best – if not the best – running backs in the NFL, he’s also not quite the monster that was head-and-shoulders above his peers back in 2019 and 2020.

The three-time Pro Bowler averaged 4.4 yards per carry this season, below his previous two full-season averages in 2019 (5.1-yard average) and 2020 (5.4-yard average). Henry also averaged 3.6 yards per carry after contact this year, down from 2019 (4.16) and 2020 (3.85), per PFF.

Is it possible that better personnel surrounding Henry – an improved offensive line and better threats at receiver – will allow him to be just as impactful as he ever was? Absolutely. If the Titans feel that’s the case, then they may not feel a need to change their very run-heavy approach on that side of the ball.

But it’s also possible that a little less Henry on first down, and even a little less Henry overall, might make him an even more impactful player – and help better the Titans’ offense as well.