Why the Titans Should Pass on a QB in the First Round
When it comes to forecasting which position the Tennessee Titans will take with their first-round pick in this year’s draft, the easy guesses are offensive line (guard or tackle) and wide receiver.
The wildcard position? Quarterback.
One could certainly make a case the Titans go quarterback with the 26th overall pick, as the status of current starter Ryan Tannehill is unclear after 2022. Some of Tannehill’s important numbers dropped significantly in 2021, his contract becomes much easier to get out of following this season, and he’ll turn 35 before the start of the 2023 season.
As always, quarterback is the most important position on the field.
So, if the Titans are convinced their long-term starter is available at No. 26, it’s worth diving in.
But if the last decade is any indication when it comes to quarterbacks, then the Titans’ odds of landing a quality starter at No. 26 – or anywhere in the latter half of the first round, for that matter – are slim.
That doesn’t mean it can’t happen in 2022. Every draft is different. As is every player.
But take a look at the quarterbacks selected in the back half of the first round (picks 17-32) over the past 10 years and see what you think: 2012 (Brandon Weeden, No. 22 by Cleveland); 2014 (Johnny Manziel, No. 24 by Cleveland); 2014 (Teddy Bridgewater, No. 32 by Minnesota); 2016 (Paxton Lynch, No. 26 by Denver); 2018 (Lamar Jackson, No. 32 by Baltimore); and 2020 (Jordan Love, No. 26 by Green Bay).
Outside of Jackson, not an impact starter to be found.
What’s it all mean aside from the fact Cleveland can’t draft quarterbacks? Here are three things that stand out:
• The size of this group is an immediate eye-opener. NFL teams only chose six quarterbacks in the latter half of the first round over the last 10 years – just six quarterback picks out of 160 selections during that stretch. Compare that to the first half of the first round, when NFL teams chose 27 quarterbacks in 160 picks. A sampling of the quarterback selections in the first half of the first round includes Andrew Luck, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert among many others.
In other words, NFL teams generally believe the pool of high-quality starting quarterbacks in the draft is a very limited one – and in order to get such a player, they need to be picking in the top five, 10 or 15. Otherwise, the chances of getting an impact starter appear to fall off dramatically.
Would the Titans be willing to move up in the first round if necessary, and surrender even more draft capital to do so? Should they, for any of the crop of 2022 quarterbacks that have received mixed reviews?
• Four of the six teams that did pick a quarterback in the latter half of the first round – Cleveland (Weeden), Cleveland (Manziel), Minnesota (Bridgewater) and Baltimore (Jackson) -- did so with their second of two first-round picks. In other words, those teams felt more comfortable taking a gamble on a quarterback late in the first, knowing they were already bringing aboard first-round talent for the coming year.
The only two times teams took a quarterback in the latter half of the first round -- without having already made another first-round selection – were Denver (Lynch) and Green Bay (Love). When Lynch went bust, the Broncos were left with nothing from their 2016 first round. The Love situation is not yet resolved.
Should the Titans, who have just the one pick in the first round, push all their chips in on a quarterback – especially when the team doesn’t have a second-round selection?
• Some will counter by saying teams have found good starting quarterbacks on Day 2 or Day 3, which shows there are some still available after the first half of the first round. This is true. Examples include Denver’s Russell Wilson (third round, 2012); Minnesota’s Kirk Cousins (fourth round, 2012); Las Vegas’ Derek Carr (second round, 2014); and Dallas’ Dak Prescott (fourth round, 2016).
But the Day 2/Day 3 quarterback picks that haven’t turned into long-term starters far outweigh the ones who did. And again, teams have presumably already made higher-round picks at that point, so whiffing on a quarterback – or winding up with just a back-up – with a later-round selection isn’t the end of the world.
Bottom line?
Quarterback prospects are always going to draw all kinds of public attention, especially when it comes to teams that are needy – or soon may be – at the game’s most important position.
And it’s certainly possible that one or more of this year’s top quarterback prospects – like Ridder, Willis, Pickett, Ole Miss’ Matt Corral or North Carolina’s Sam Howell – will be there for the taking when the Titans select at No. 26 on April 28.
But just because a name quarterback is available at No. 26 doesn’t mean the Titans should choose him.
In fact, if recent NFL history is any kind of reference, they should probably pass. There’s a reason he’s still on the board.
