Weighing Landry's Worth Not as Easy as You Might Think

Advanced statistics tell a different story than traditional ones about the outside linebacker's best NFL season to date.

NASHVILLE – Whether or not the Tennessee Titans wind up resigning linebacker Harold Landry may depend in part on which set of numbers the team believes is more significant – the conventional or non-conventional.

Landry passed every eye test with flying colors last season, producing career highs in sacks (12), tackles (75), tackles for loss (14) and quarterback hits (22). He started all 17 games, stretching his streak of consecutive regular-season starts to 52. He played 981 defensive snaps, the third straight year he logged more than 950.

And the improved play of the 2018 second-round draft pick was a big reason the Titans made a huge leap to 43 sacks, up from 19 in 2020.

So, from that standpoint, how can the Titans not afford to re-sign Landry, right?

Where will the pass rush go if the team lets Landry walk, after he finished 10th in the league with those 12 sacks and tied for 14th with his 22 quarterback hits?

Well, one issue when it comes to re-signing Landry, obviously, is the money.

The Titans, in desperate straits to improve the pass rush last year, signed linebacker Bud Dupree to a five-year, $82 million deal. Can the team really handle another whopping multi-year contract for an edge rusher, especially since Landry is likely to command a deal that would average at least $15 million per season – and likely more?

Even tagging Landry for a year at an estimated $17.4 million, per OverTheCap would be challenging in terms of putting together the 2022 payroll.

But there may be more numbers than just the dollars that come into play when deciding whether or not to re-sign Landry.

A couple of analytics sites surprisingly suggest Landry’s impact on opposing offenses last year – despite the fact he was regularly flattening quarterbacks – wasn’t as significant as his stats indicate.

This ESPN graphic, for instance, uses the NFL’s Next Gen Stats to measure the 2021 impact of the NFL’s top 50 pass-rushers (which are determined by pass-rush win rates). It shows that – of those top-50 rushers -- Landry ranked near the bottom when it came to how often opposing offenses double-teamed him.

All fine and good, Titans fans might say. Let the opponents continue to think Landry doesn’t need more double-teaming and let him keep racking up sacks.

But interestingly enough, that same graphic also shows Landry ranked near the bottom of the NFL’s top-50 rushers when it comes to pass-rush win rate.

So just how is it, then, that Landry put together such great numbers last season?

Cue another analytics site, Pro Football Focus, which believes Landry benefitted greatly from those around him last season.

“Landry, by stats alone, had himself quite a year,” PFF wrote. “It is still important to note that 42 of Landry’s (68) pressures were of the clean-up or unblocked variety. Thus, his value may not be as high as the statistics say it should be.”

That explains why PFF didn’t give Landry particularly high grades last season: Among edge rushers with over 500 snaps in 2021, he ranked just 55th with a pass-rush grade of 56.5, and 43rd with an overall grade of 63.0.

PFF actually made a similar argument in regard to Dupree when he was a free agent last season, writing that Dupree was “helped immensely by T.J. Watt, Cameron Heyward and Stephon Tuitt, each of whom drew attention and flushed quarterbacks from the pocket to create additional opportunities for Dupree to pile up sack and pressure numbers.”

Surprising? Head-scratching?

The Titans certainly didn’t seem too concerned about how Dupree got his sacks and pressures, judging by the contract they gave him.

If they feel the same way about Landry, maybe the Titans get creative – through salary-cap cuts and salary reconstructions – and find a way to bring him back.

But if they feel Landry benefitted in part from a better defense around him in 2021 – with Denico Autry, Dupree and even a better secondary contributing to his success – maybe it becomes easier to say farewell, and easier to replace him with a less expensive player.

Which way do you lean?