Why The Titans Trading for San Francisco QB Trey Lance Seems Unlikely

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Trey Lance has a connection to new Tennessee Titans general manager Ran Carthon, but other factors could block a reunion in Nashville.

Kyle Terada / USA Today Sports

NASHVILLE – It’s not really a proper offseason until an anonymous NFL executive speculates on a team's quarterback position.

The Tennessee Titans can check that box off the list now.

The Athletic’s Mike Sando on Monday quoted one unnamed suit as saying, “I think (San Francisco) will trade Trey Lance to Tennessee … ."

It was hardly the first time a Lance-to-the-Titans scenario has been floated. Rumors have swirled ever since Ran Carthon – the 49ers’ former director of player personnel – was named Tennessee’s new general manager.

Lance gave a crossed-fingers, good-luck emoji to the Carthon news on Twitter earlier this month, prompting some to believe the young quarterback was hoping to eventually tag along.

On a basic scale, it makes some sense: The Titans have not made a crystal-clear commitment to 34-year-old Ryan Tannehill as the team’s starter for 2023, and there are significant question marks as to whether the other quarterbacks under contract – Malik Willis and Josh Dobbs – are or can be NFL starters.

So what team in a situation like that wouldn’t at least be interested in Lance, the third overall pick in the 2021 and a player with whom Carthon is likely very familiar?

Now let’s do a deeper reality check.

What exactly would the Titans have to give up in order to land Lance? Remember, the 49ers surrendered three first-round draft picks and a third-rounder when they moved up to select him in 2021. Lance’s value isn’t nearly as high now because he’s coming off a broken ankle last season – and because he’s only made four starts in two seasons. But you can bet the 49ers would be looking to recoup at least some of that lost draft capital if they dealt Lance.

Carthon doesn’t have much draft capital as matters stand now in 2023 (six picks in seven rounds). Would he really want to surrender a valuable portion of it – in his first offseason – to add the unproven Lance?

That leads to the second point. If you give up some capital to land Lance, you’re pretty much committing to him as the starter at that point, which means Tannehill is likely gone via trade or release. Is that really where the Titans want to be at quarterback – with three unproven talents like Lance, Willis and Dobbs?

Granted, there seems to be a world of difference in the potential of Lance compared to the other two. Still, what’s Lance shown so far? He played just 19 games at North Dakota State, parlaying his spectacular 2019 season – 2,786 passing yards, 28 touchdowns and zero interceptions – into his high 2021 draft selection.

As a pro, Lance has played in eight games (starting four) and has completed 56 of 102 passes (54.9 percent) for 797 yards (14.2 yards per completion). He’s thrown five touchdowns versus three interceptions, posting an 84.5 quarterback rating. Just as importantly, Lance already has dealt with numerous injuries. He was hampered his rookie year by knee, thumb and index-finger issues, and then broke his ankle in Week 2 of 2022 – an injury that’s already required two surgeries.

Given the Titans’ recent concerns about adding players with injury history, this doesn’t look like an ideal path to follow.

Let’s look at things from the 49ers’ side as well.

Why would they want to trade away Lance now, when he’s still in the process of recovery from the second ankle surgery? They’d presumably get better value for him when it’s clear Lance has fully healed, maybe after he goes through the offseason program, maybe even after he plays in a preseason game or two.

The 49ers also don’t have a particularly certain quarterback room moving forward.

Jimmy Garoppolo is a pending unrestricted free agent, and it doesn’t appear he’ll be re-signed. Rookie Brock Purdy looked like a future starter when he led the 49ers to eight straight wins leading up to the NFC Championship. But he tore his ulnar collateral ligament against Philadelphia, an injury that will reportedly require a six-month recovery – meaning Purdy would miss the entire offseason. Would the 49ers really be willing to deal Lance before they know Purdy is back to full strength?

Combined, the 2023 cap hits of Lance ($9.3 million) and Purdy ($889,000) are only about $10 million. So the 49ers can afford to hold on to both, let them battle for one position – whether it’s for No. 1, or for No. 2 behind a veteran – and deal away the loser at some later date.

Speaking of money, that’s one final point. Because of the way Lance’s rookie contract is set up, the 49ers – if they traded him before June 1 – would be stuck with $11.1 million dead money, and they would save just $1.8 million against the cap.

That wouldn’t be a dealbreaker, but it’s certainly not a plus either.

Does all that info mean we absolutely won’t see Lance traded to the Titans?

We all know enough to never say never. But it appears there are far more reasons to believe it won’t happen than to think it will.