Tim Kelly’s Impact on Titans’ 2022 Offense

The Tennessee Titans promotion of Tim Kelly to offensive coordinator raised a few questions about what Kelly’s role in the 2022 offensive collapse was and if that should be a concern in 2023.

The Tennessee Titans new offensive coordinator Tim Kelly was the passing game coordinator in 2022. With him being promoted to offensive coordinator earlier this week, some have wondered why Mike Vrabel would want to promote anyone associated with the offense’s performance last season. That is a fair question, but Vrabel may have given fans reason for optimism in his press conference following the Tim Kelly news.

Mike Vrabel gave an interesting answer when asked about Kelly’s role on the 2022 offensive staff. Vrabel said, “I'd asked him to focus and assist with TEs at practice and a lot of preparation during the week, working with former OC Todd Downing and Vrabel himself. Worked a lot on the 1st and 2nd down passing game.”

Vrabel says Tim Kelly’s contribution as passing game coordinator wasn’t limited to just the pass. Kelly also worked with first and second downs, red zone.

— Teresa Walker 👑 (@TeresaMWalker) February 7, 2023

Another thing Vrabel mentioned as part of Kelly’s duties was game-planning for the red zone. You can see why Vrabel would want to elevate Kelly when looking at those three categories: Red Zone, Early Down Passing and Tight End production.

Red Zone Scoring

The Titans didn’t do much very well last year on offense, but one of the places they really shined as a team was in the red area. The Titans were the sixth best red zone offense in the NFL last season, scoring on 64.3% of their red zone opportunities. The issue was getting to the red zone. The Titans ranked 31st in red zone appearances.

Mike Vrabel has been consistent this offseason in saying the Titans did well in the red area, but just need to get there more. Hard to argue with that analysis. Putting Kelly in the offensive coordinator role is all about continuity and, without erasing the foundation, building on what the Titans’ offense did well last season. Continuing that red zone success will be critical for the Titans’ offense in 2023.

Early Down Passing

You could easily understand any Titans fan who has skepticism heading into this section. What in the world could be a redeeming quality from the Titans’ passing attack in 2022?? Not a bad question, but there is a good answer! While the Titans did finish as one of the worst passing teams in the NFL(30th in yards per game and T-28th in passing touchdowns), they were actually above average when passing on early downs(first and second).

When the Titans' offense was at its best over the last few years it was because the Titans went play action on early downs when defenses were worried about the run threat of Derrick Henry. Catching teams off-guard and throwing when most expect the run is a potent weapon in the Titans’ offense. It not only allows the Titans’ offense to be more efficient, but it weaponizes the biggest, figuratively and literally, weapon they have in Henry.

Looking at the graphs below you can see the difference in passing success from early downs to late down. In the first picture, you can see the Titans are slightly above average(the vertical red line) in expected points added when dropping back to pass per play(Dropback EPA/Play) on first and second down. Compare that to the second picture and it is obvious how much worse the passing game fared on third down and fourth down. The Titans’ passing attack was only more effective than six other NFL teams in that scenario.

In theory, if the Titans passing offense is able to retain that efficiency on early downs and then improve on late downs, it would make for a much more impressive passing attack. Another benefit of an NFL-caliber passing offense would be the ability for the Titans to be less predictable in the play calling. That would then open up more opportunities for Derrick Henry to break the 'BIG' one more often in 2023.

The Titans were a much better passing offense on early downs in 2022

The Titans passing offense struggle mightily on third and fourth down in 2022

Tight End Productivity

You could make the argument the Titans had the worst tight end group in the NFL in 2021. Geoff Swaim was miscast as a starter, Anthony Firkser was overused and asked to play a role he could not fill and MyCole Pruitt was fine, but nothing to write home about. The Titans not only had better players at tight end in 2022, but got a lot more production out of them as well. 

In 2021, the Titans’ tight end trio accumulated 79 catches, 646 yards and eight touchdowns. The 2022 trio of Austin Hooper, Chig Okonkwo and Geoff Swaim put up 85 catches, 952 yards and six touchdowns. While they had less touchdown catches in 2022, the other statistics show the noticeable improvement made by the group.

The brightest star out of the 2022 group was rookie Chig Okonkwo who was one of the most explosive tight ends in the NFL and clearly the best rookie tight end in the league. Getting the most out of one of the most explosive pass catcher on the team will be key to turning around the offense in 2023. Promoting one of the people directly responsible for Okonkwo's development would seem like a smart move.

It would be naïve to credit Tim Kelly with all of the good aspects of the Titans’ offense and deny his culpability in any of the failures, but Mike Vrabel told us directly what Kelly was most involved with last season, so we are only wise to listen. If Vrabel can be taken at his word, then Titans fans should be excited about what Tim Kelly can do in these areas when he is running the show.

In a previous article, a comparison was made that likened the possibility of Tim Kelly taking over for Todd Downing in the middle of the season to driving someone else’s car. To keep that analogy going, you could say that Tim Kelly was giving directions from the passenger seat in 2022, but without being able to drive the car himself, he could not create more success. Now, with the map in one hand and the wheel in the other, Kelly will have the chance to steer the Titans back to some semblance of success on offense.

• TIM KELLY PROMOTED: The Tennessee Titans have promoted Tim Kelly to offensive coordinator. Kelly had been spent the 2022 season as the Titans Passing Game Coordinator on offense. CLICK HERE
• CARTHON ADDS EXECUTIVE: The Tennessee Titans continue making big moves as new general manager Ran Carthon hires former Packers’ executive Chad Brinker as assistant general manager. CLICK HERE
• TYLER'S TAKE ON TRADE RUMORS: There are rumors floating around that the Tennessee Titans are interested in trading up to the first overall pick. But the reason for calling the Chicago Bears for a trade may not be as obvious as it seems, according to AllTitans.com writer Tyler Rowland. CLICK HERE