Titans Need Better Personnel on Offense, but Philosophical Change is Required Also

The Tennessee Titans need to upgrade the talent on the offensive side of the ball, but they also need to change the way they want to play offense if they intend to improve in 2023.

NASHVILLE — The Tennessee Titans have been under a microscope during the pre-draft process. Most people who look at the team’s roster, whether it be fans or media, can see the clear talent issue on the offensive side of the ball. For the Titans, roster upgrades are certainly needed, but if the Titans want to improve on offense, it isn’t just the talent that needs to change. The Titans must also correct their old-school philosophy and a recent statistic put out by Warren Sharp of sharpfootballanalysis.com shows exactly how far the Titans have fallen behind some of the best teams in the NFL.

pass rate on 2nd & 10 after an incompletion:

92% - CIN
88% - MIA
78% - ARI
77% - PHI
75% - NYG
74% - KC
72% - BUF
72% - LAC
71% - TB
66% - LAR
65% - SEA
65% - GB
64% - LV
64% - JAX
64% - IND
63% - CAR
58% - MIN
57% - NYJ
57% - BAL
56% - HOU
56% - NE
52% - DEN
52% - ATL
51% - DAL…

— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) April 19, 2023

Sharp released the tweet above and showed the rate at which teams threw the ball after they threw an incompletion on first down and ten, in the first three quarters of the game. Essentially, this statistic shows just how conservative an offense became after not having success on first down. It is no surprise to any Titans fan who watched the team closely that the Titans were ranked near the bottom of the NFL in this stat and to be exact the Titans finished as the fifth-lowest rate in the NFL.

This stat matches up with what you thought you saw throughout 2022, the Titans got scared after throwing an incompletion on first down and then choose to run Derrick Henry into a loaded box on second down. This often resulted in third and long situations. The reasoning for doing this is obvious. The Titans were scared of third and long so they thought they could pick up 3-5 yards on second down to give them third and manageable.

The issue with this is the fear that controlled the play call backfired. Not only did the Titans not gain those simple yards and give themselves a more appetizing third down chance, they often got Henry smoked behind the line of scrimmage or got nothing at all resulting in exactly what they feared in the first place, third and long.

The Titans can’t just change the personnel and hope things improve. They need to fundamentally change the way they think you should play offense. Look at the teams at the top of this stat. You’ll find Cincinnati, Miami, Philadelphia, Kansas City and Buffalo. Some of the best offenses in the NFL. At the bottom, with the exception of San Francisco, you have mostly the worst teams in the NFL. It isn’t rocket science, you need to throw the ball on second down and long.

To the Titans’ credit, they fired the offensive coordinator who produced this stat, but something makes me think it wasn’t just Todd Downing going rogue. Something makes me think it was a mandate from Mike Vrabel to run the ball that contributed as well. We will be able to get an answer as to whether that theory is correct this fall when new offensive coordinator Tim Kelly takes the reigns, but hopefully the Titans see the error of their ways and decide to take a more modern approach in 2023.

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