Two Candidates Pull Away in NFL’s MVP Race Through Week 16

Josh Allen continues to play at a high level, and a few other quarterbacks have improved their play since the last time we did these rankings.

Patriots quarterback Drake Maye is making one final push to win the NFL's MVP award. / James Lang-Imagn Images

Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye could be headed for a photo finish heading into the final two weeks of the MVP race. 

Stafford should have wrapped up the award weeks ago, but his Rams have stumbled against the Panthers and Seahawks in the past month. Those L.A. hiccups have opened the door for Maye, who might have impressed MVP voters with Sunday night’s comeback victory over the Ravens. 

However, Stafford still leads many major statistical categories for quarterbacks, and he was sensational against a stout Seahawks defense. There’s still a chance the Rams win the NFC West, but if they don’t and Maye’s Patriots win the AFC East, could that be enough to sway voters in the direction of the second-year signal-caller?

Also, I shouldn’t be so quick to make this a two-quarterback MVP race. Josh Allen continues to play at a high level, and a few other quarterbacks have improved their play since the last time we did these rankings. 

Let’s assess our final MVP rankings of the 2025 season.

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5. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seahawks (12–3)

A few long-shot MVP candidates from the quarterback position have emerged in recent weeks, with Trevor Lawrence and Caleb Williams guiding their respective teams to signature victories. 

But this prestigious award shouldn’t just be about quarterbacks atop the standings, and they’re not the sole reason why they find themselves in first place. Smith-Njigba has been dominant all season and has played a pivotal role in the Seahawks being the No. 1 seed in the NFC with two regular-season games left.

Again, it’s a team game, but Seattle would not have orchestrated a 16-point fourth-quarter comeback against Los Angeles without JSN’s clutch plays. His ability to get open on most plays has allowed Sam Darnold to establish a rhythm, even amid the most daunting circumstances, including last week when Darnold had two ugly interceptions against the Rams.

Smith-Njigba won’t win MVP, but he deserves consideration from voters for his impressive body of work. He has a league-high 1,637 receiving yards, along with 10 touchdowns and 104 catches, averaging 15.7 yards per reception. 

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4. Justin Herbert, QB, Chargers (11–4)

I know I dismissed Lawrence and Williams despite their late-season surge. However, Herbert has been productive most of the season. He needs to be recognized for how valuable he’s been to an injury riddled Chargers team that somehow has won seven of its past eight games despite several obstacles this season.

In the past three weeks, Herbert has guided his team to signature victories over Philadelphia, Kansas City (with Patrick Mahomes) and Dallas despite playing without his starting tackles and playing with a fractured left hand that required surgery. 

His numbers didn’t stand out against the Eagles and Chiefs, but his mobility and timely throws kept his offense in the game against two of the most formidable defenses in the league. Either Herbert’s hand has improved, or he benefited from facing a poor defense, but he carved up the Cowboys with a 300-yard, two-touchdown performance in Week 16. 

If Herbert can guide the Chargers to the AFC West title by beating the Texans and Broncos in the final two weeks, his MVP campaign would likely take off. 

He has completed 66.5% of his passes for 3,491 yards, 25 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.

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Josh Allen continues to carry the Bills with his arm and legs as Buffalo enters the final two weeks of the season. / Jeff Lange / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

3. Josh Allen, QB, Bills (11–4)

Allen had a quiet performance in Week 16, but he didn’t need to do much with running back James Cook doing the heavy lifting against the Browns (3–12). 

With the playoffs in three weeks, the Bills could benefit from giving Allen a day off in late December, especially after carrying his team to victories over the Patriots and Bengals the past two weeks, which required second-half comebacks.  

I’ve said this a few times in these MVP rankings, but no quarterback can play better than Allen when he’s in his elite zone due to his ability to make relentless plays as a runner and passer. He remains pinpoint accurate despite operating as a freight train at times. I’m not sure we’ve ever seen a quarterback remain that calm while playing at 100 mph, which is why Allen has become an annual contender for MVP. 

We know what his best looks like and don’t need him to show it every week. But he’s going to need that elite form once the playoffs arrive in January. 

Allen has completed 69.6% of his passes for 3,406 yards, 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, and has rushed for 552 yards and 12 touchdowns. 

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2. Drake Maye, QB, Patriots (12–3)

One week after blowing it against the Bills, Maye recovered with a gritty performance, guiding the Patriots to an 11-point fourth-quarter comeback against the Ravens on Sunday Night Football. It was also Maye’s first career game with at least 300 passing yards. 

We’ve known for a while that Maye is the real deal, but this was the first time this season he had to face that kind of adversity in the fourth quarter, primarily because his team has benefited from a feeble schedule. It was a bit different the week before when the Patriots jumped to a 21–0 lead, only to fizzle once the Bills passed them in an AFC East track meet. 

Obviously, Maye needs to develop a closer’s mentality against Super Bowl contenders, but showing resilience and being able to punch back against a tough Ravens team says plenty about where he has his team before the postseason. It’s easy to forget that Maye is only in his second season. Still, his ability to score in a hurry—like the 37-yard dime he threw to Kyle Williams to start the rally against Baltimore—has given the Patriots a jolt of confidence, and that alone says plenty about his MVP campaign.

Let’s also not forget that Maye beat the Bills and Buccaneers on the road earlier this season. Not every team has been a cupcake on New England’s schedule. 

Maye has completed 70.9% of his passes (a league high) for 3,947 yards, 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions.  

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Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford could be on the verge of winning his first MVP at the age of 37. / Kevin Ng-Imagn Images

1. Matthew Stafford, QB, Rams (11–4)

The MVP race likely would have been over if the Rams didn’t blow a 16-point fourth-quarter lead in Thursday night’s overtime loss to the Seahawks. 

A victory would have put L.A. in an ideal position to secure the NFC’s No. 1 seed, and those kinds of feats certainly matter to MVP voters. But now there’s a strong chance Stafford and the Rams open the postseason as a wild-card team on the road. 

The Rams’ collapse, however, wasn’t on Stafford, who threw for 457 yards and three touchdowns. Stafford’s team accolades took a hit, but he’s still the best quarterback this season, which says plenty, considering how well Allen and Maye have played. Stafford has a league-high 4,179 yards and 40 touchdowns against only five interceptions. 

If Stafford and the Rams handle business against the Falcons and Cardinals to end the regular season, that should be enough for Stafford to capture his first career MVP, which would make him the fifth player to win the prestigious award at age 37 or older. Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers (twice), Peyton Manning and Y.A. Tittle are the others in that club. 

Many thought Stafford was on the verge of retirement after missing most of the summer with a back injury. But he might have a few dominant years left after delivering a career season in Year 17.

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