Michael Fabiano Thinks These Are Risky Fantasy Picks

All right, give me uh some players who scare you the most, cause I think this is honestly one of the most valuable discussion points heading into your fantasy football draft because so many people just arrive uh with the preconceived notions that they baked in from last year, but so much has happened over the offseason that would cause you to be like, I don't know, I'm staying away from that guy.

Bro, every 49er, I mean, oh my God, everyone's hurt.

And so, and I will say this because when I'm wrong, I'll say I'm wrong.

I was dead wrong about McCaffrey last year.

I did not want him in round one.

I didn't have him.

I didn't want Saquan too, so I guess 50/50 on that.

I, and, and McCaffrey went on to score the most points of any player in fantasy football.

So yeah, fabs, nice work there.

Uh, you're a big dummy.

But he had 450 touches.

He's 30 years old.

You know, he's played back to back seasons, full seasons, once since 2020.

Uh, just two of the last 13 running backs who led the NFL in touches have finished in the top 12 the following year.

Uh, he, there's so much, like just red flaggage for McCaffrey.

Now, does that mean I won't draft him if he's there at 7 or 8?

I mean, I probably will, but I, I, I, I wouldn't feel great about it.

I don't even know his handcuff is right now.

They're both hurt.

Uh, uh, Mike Evans scares me because 33 years old, he's been hurt during camp, and typically when you're an older wide receiver and you change teams, it doesn't go well, uh, for the most part.

Travis Achan scares me because the Saints kept Kamara last year.

Travis Achan, I believe it was 40% of his fantasy points came as a receiver, and I know that Kamara's receiving metric.

were really bad last year, but if they're gonna use him as their like predominant pass catcher out of the backfield, that's gonna hurt a Chan.

Uh , you know, Matthew Stafford scares me, although it's not as much of a risk because I think everyone's scared of Stafford because do you know, Connor, the year before last year, he averaged 7 fewer points per game than in 2025.

Like you, you have to like factor in the magical season, uh, narrative, and I say that all the time.

I was all over Drake May last year.

I said, draft him, that's the guy this year, that's the guy this year.

Him and Caleb Williams, those are the guys.

And Drake ended up having what the QB2 season of his life.

Can he do it again in back to back years?

I don't know.

I'm, I'm with a hard, way harder schedule with a way.

He's got his open in Seattle.

Like some of the games that they played in last year.

I mean, they were playing cupcakes, uh, so, uh, you know, I, I think he's gonna regress.

So they, they're, they'll, again, I'll go back to the 49ers.

George Kittle coming off an Achilles, he's gonna be 33 years old during the season starts .

I'm a little afraid of him too.

So, uh, and Josh Jacobs, you know, he, we're starting to see a few kind of kinks in his armor.

Um, you know, we saw it last year, uh, with some of the advanced stuff.

So, there are players that, uh, I'm not saying that I'm gonna avoid them like altogether, but if I End up in a position where like, oh my God, they've fallen this far .

I've got to draft them.

I'm still scared that the, uh, you know, that the investment is not gonna work out.

Jalen Waddle is another one.

And he went, he went from Miami, where after Tyreek Hill went down.

His targets per game average didn't go up significantly, and now he goes to Denver, which has one of the deepest wide receiver rooms in the entire league, and I'm expected to draft him as a wide receiver too, and expect them to put up really consistently good numbers.

Cortland Sutton's got the rapport with Bo Nix, not Jaylen Waddle right now.

So like, Waddle is another guy that I'm not, again, I'm not saying I wouldn't draft him, but I draft him thinking this might be a mistake at the end of the season.

Another player, you mentioned the age and you mentioned the wear and tear and the rigors of a career.

I'm, you know, I'm, I'm asking this for myself, but also because I think a lot of people are out there like, I'm in the last pick this year, so I have the turn and everybody's looking at Derrick Henry, who's going into like what is age 32 season at this point for a running back when When do, when do we stop taking that guy, like in the 1st or the 2nd round, like new offensive coordinate, like every, but, but of course, he's gonna have like 17 touchdowns again at the end of the year if you don't pick him, you know.

He is the unicorn of unicorns.

Uh, there is, there, there is no one else who can do what Derrick Henry has done.

I mean, if you look at the history of it, um, every year I ask the same thing, and every year, he just goes off and has great seasons.

I will say this, now he's, he is pushing it though, right?

I mean, he's pushing it.

Guys his age at the running back position just don't produce uh enormous numbers.

But once again, he's the unicorn, he's been the exception to the rule.

Uh, I, I posted my um 10 bold predictions, uh, not all of them I am 100% backing, but like sometimes you, you know, you post something because Uh, you have facts and proof that may warrant it being, uh, true at the end of the season.

Maybe Father Time finally catches up with Derrick Henry, right?

I mean, like, it's possible, but like, am I gonna be afraid to draft him in round two if he's the best player available?

No.

The thing is though, that typically my round two predict a a a pick is gonna be a wide receiver, so I typically don't ever fall into a situation where I, you know, would have to decide to draft him or not, but would I, if he was there?

Yeah, I would draft him, but again, in the back of my mind, I'm like, this guy is, you know, 32 years old and Uh, you know, can he just continue to keep it up, like, literally.

There is not a running back that I can remember, and I mean, like, I love NFL history, that has done what he's done at his age.

I mean, Curtis Martin had a really good year.

He won the rushing title at 31.

Tiki Barber had some really good years in his early 30s.

But I mean, it is a very small group of running backs who thrive.

I mean, some of the greats, Eric Dickerson fell off a cliff in his 30s, you know, LaDainian Tomlinson wasn't as great as in his 30s, Marshall Clock wasn't as great as, but Derrick Henry just keeps on keeping on.

So, I, I, I, I'm gonna have in the back of my mind, is this the year where it falls apart, but I, I'm still gonna draft him if he's there and he's the best player available for me, and, you know, what I'm looking for in that round.