The Vikings Should Extend Sam Darnold Right Now

Yes, the team has rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy on the mend. But it would be smart to lock in a good player right now and worry about the rest later.

Darnold cheers as he leaves Lambeau following the win over the Packers / Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

The people who run NFL teams are always looking for ways to maximize their waking hours, so when the 4–0 Minnesota Vikings take their flight to London this week they should utilize that time to hammer out an extension for Sam Darnold. Then they should not let him off the airplane until he signs it. Nothing illegal or anything; just strategically misplace his passport or something (maybe his government ID doesn’t have the mustache and that’ll tie him up in customs).

Through four weeks of the season, Darnold has been one of the five best quarterbacks in the NFL. Outside of the 11 touchdowns and three interceptions, Darnold has posted total EPAs (expected points added) of 11.2, 5.0, 0.7 and 11.8. His worst performance was a 109.1 quarterback rating against a San Francisco 49ers defense that is, while not statistically phenomenal to this point, capable of destroying a middling NFL offense. Through the early-afternoon window of games Sunday, Darnold was ninth in the NFL in EPA per dropback, second in passer rating and first in yards per attempt. 

And while four games is right on the edge of a sample size in which defensive coordinators say they can get a feel for someone’s true strengths and weaknesses—separating that from the magic of the scheme or the surrounding personnel—Darnold continually looks like a quarterback who has finally found his intellectual counterpart in head coach and play-caller Kevin O’Connell. 

On Sunday against the Green Bay Packers, we saw more of Darnold making plays in the margins, like throwing to pass interference calls. We saw him throwing open receivers—great receivers, yes—and leading them out of perilous coverage. And we saw what some of Darnold’s biggest behind-the-scenes supporters through the years have talked most loudly about: his athleticism, manifested both in an ability to throw on the run and to evade pressure and pick up necessary first downs. 

In short, we’ve seen enough to warrant the risk that Darnold would not be worth the return if the Vikings were to offer him a deal that would make him both a perpetual mentor and competitor to the recovering J.J. McCarthy, the Vikings’ rookie and No. 10 pick who tore his meniscus this preseason. 

Darnold will have suitors this offseason. Teams are rightfully attracted to the idea that talented passers have a second life outside of the hellscapes from which they were drafted. Baker Mayfield’s $33.3 million salary is looking to be one of the great bargains in the NFL this year considering what the Cleveland Browns, for example, are paying for Deshaun Watson, what the Miami Dolphins had to pay for Tua Tagovailoa or what the New York Giants paid for Daniel Jones. The same could be said for Geno Smith’s post–Comeback Player of the Year deal with the Seattle Seahawks, which pays as much as Philadelphia Eagles receiver DeVonta Smith. 

Because of this, Darnold obviously would not be as (relatively) inexpensive on a long-term contract. The secret is out. 

But I do wonder whether there would be interest on Darnold’s side as well. Testing the market could land him in another position in which he’s not set up to succeed, like he had with the New York Jets and the Carolina Panthers. Teams that tend to spend largely in free agency often lack a talented homegrown roster (full of players who soak up said cap dollars) and are either coached by someone new and unproven looking to shape the roster or someone desperate trying to spend their way through a downward spiral. 

The undeniable truth is this: While the Vikings have a responsibility to develop McCarthy, they have a far more primary responsibility to accumulate more talent than other teams in the NFL. The quarterback position is in such a state of flux—and, in my opinion, will continue to be as more teams shift away from the Vic Fangio defensive system into more of a Mike Macdonald–style system, or more of a designer-style Brian Flores scheme—that gobbling up anything resembling capability is no longer considered deleterious to your younger players. It’s simply a prudent, economical course of action. Darnold knows what it’s like to need a mentor, and had one in Josh McCown at the beginning of his career. O’Connell, a former quarterback, can surely find a way to handle this kind of dynamic. McCarthy, you’ll also remember, was a solid three years younger (21) than most of the quarterbacks selected in the first round of this year’s draft. 

Darnold could rightfully want the big contract he never had the chance to get with the Jets and, should he continue to play this way, could find himself in the Kirk Cousins position, headlining free agency this offseason as a handful of QB-needy teams make their pitch. Or, he could simply approach the Vikings and ask them to make him a deal that could keep him in a place that has uncovered the player we always thought might be there. 

If Minnesota has any foresight whatsoever, those conversations have already taken place.