Vikings' Justin Jefferson given fourth-best odds to lead NFL in receiving

Jefferson was the NFL's receiving leader in 2022. Can he do it without Kirk Cousins?

Aug 3, 2024; Eagan, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) looks on during practice at Vikings training camp in Eagan, MN. / Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Since Justin Jefferson entered the NFL in 2020, his 5,899 receiving yards trail only Tyreek Hill's 6,024 among all players — and that's with Jefferson missing seven full games last season and parts of two others. Over that four-year span, Hill has played in five more games and has 59 more targets than Jefferson, who is the league's all-time leader in receiving yards per game at 98.3.

Heading into the 2024 campaign, Jefferson actually has the fourth-best odds to lead the NFL in receiving, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. Hill, who did it last year with 1,799, leads the way at +600. CeeDee Lamb, who was right behind Hill last year, is second at +650. Ja'Marr Chase is at +900. Then there's Jefferson at +1000, right in front of Amon-Ra St. Brown (+1100) and A.J. Brown (+1200).

The quarterback context is obviously the biggest reason why Jefferson is down at fourth on the list. Kirk Cousins is gone, meaning the Vikings' superstar will be catching passes from Sam Darnold and/or rookie J.J. McCarthy this year. Hill, Lamb, and Chase all have established Pro Bowl quarterbacks throwing them the football in Tua Tagovaila, Dak Prescott, and Joe Burrow.

Then again, Jefferson showed no signs of slowing down when he returned from a hamstring injury last season and saw his first action without Cousins. He caught 30 passes for 476 yards in the final four games of the season, which is a 17-game pace of just over 2,000 yards. That came with mostly Nick Mullens at quarterback (and Jaren Hall for the first half of one of those games).

Assuming Jefferson stays healthy, he figures to put up big numbers this year whether it's Darnold or McCarthy under center. In recent training camp practices, he's shown some strong chemistry with Darnold, who figures to at least open the season as the Vikings' starter. The question is if his quarterbacks can be good enough to help Jefferson keep pace with other prolific receivers like Hill, Lamb, and Chase.