Do Vikings need to worry about a J.J. McCarthy holdout?

Lump sum payments for QBs taken at the top of the draft have become common practice recently

(6/10) Vikings rookie QB J.J. McCarthy at Vikings OTA practice / Andy Kenutis/Minnesota Vikings

The NFL is heading into the annual dead period between the end of OTAs and minicamps and the opening of training camp. With it comes even more rumors and speculation, just to keep people engaged with the sport.

Now that the speculation surrounding Justin Jefferson's future is finally done, the NFL speculation machine needs a new Vikings player to discuss. Enter rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy.

The Vikings selected McCarthy with the 10th overall pick in the draft to be their quarterback of the future. As the 10th overall pick, McCarthy is projected to sign a four-year, $21.8 million deal, according to former agent Joel Corry.

Long gone are the days where rookies at the top of the draft were paid like veteran stars. The NFL has a rookie wage scale that puts a salary cap on rookie contracts. Corry has an excellent explainer of the ins-and-outs of the rookie wage scale here.

Now, the rookie deal for McCarthy, while mostly set in stone due to the rookie wage scale, does include a few negotiable items. As Corry explains, those are the "payment schedule of the signing bonus and whether salary guarantees will have offsets."

This is where the McCarthy speculation comes in. According to Twitter/X user @prettyrickey213, McCarthy "plans to holdout unless he gets 100% of his signing bonus up front." Wait, someone who goes by Pretty Rickey is breaking news? Yes...

Normally, a random person making strange proclamations on the internet wouldn't be anything to write about but this particular user has a history of being right when posting NFL news.

The person who runs the account posted that Odell Beckham Jr. and the Dolphins were in agreement on a deal on April 18, two weeks before the deal was announced. On May 2, the account posted that receiver Tyler Boyd was "expected to sign with the Titans." Five days later, ESPN's Jeremy Fowler broke news that an agreement between Boyd and the Titans had been reached.

The account posted that Antoine Winfield Jr. would sign the biggest deal for a defensive back in league history on May 10, three days before ESPN's Adam Schefter broke news that Winfield did just that.

Around 40 minutes before news of Justin Jefferson's mega deal, the account posted that Jefferson would sign a contract with over $100 million in guarantees. Jefferson got a reported $110 million guaranteed.

Since the introduction of the rookie wage scale in 2011, there have been significantly fewer rookie holdouts, but that doesn't mean they still don't happen.

In 2016, Joey Bosa missed 31 days due to a dispute with the Chargers over the payment schedule of his signing bonus. Former Bears linebacker Roquan Smith held out the first two weeks of training camp over a reported objection to language in the contract regarding reasons the Bears could void his guarantees.

Lump sum payments, like the one Pretty Rickey is suggesting McCarthy is asking for, have become increasingly normal for quarterbacks taken at the top of the draft.

Jacksonville's Trevor Lawrence started the trend in 2021, receiving the entirety of his $24.1 million signing bonus within 15 days of signing his contract. Zach Wilson and Trey Lance, the next two quarterbacks taken in the 2021 draft, also received their signing bonuses in lump sum payments. Corry stated to expect a similar deal for the top three quarterbacks taken in the 2024 draft: Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye.

It's entirely possible that McCarthy could expect similar for his projected $12.1 million bonus, but with over a month to go until training camp, it's probably a little early to start panicking about a holdout.

"In recent years there have been more contentious negotiations with rookies than in the early days of the rookie contract but there haven't been any instances of significant holdouts. The most likely scenario is that the two sides will work it out before the beginning of camp and get to work normally," Purple Insider's Matthew Coller told Inside The Vikings when asked whether there should be concern of a McCarthy holdout.

Whatever the case, we now know who Pretty Rickey is and that he apparently has an accurate track record when it comes to breaking some NFL news.