Matthew Coller: Comparing recent rookie QB supporting casts
Historically rookie quarterbacks have struggled in the NFL. Since 2010 there have been 46 QBs to play in at least 10 games and only 12 of them have won seven games or more. Just four have topped 10 wins. Only nine have QB ratings above 90 and 30 of the 46 had at least 10 interceptions. It’s tough out there.
Yet there is some belief that JJ McCarthy could have a strong year if he gets an opportunity to play ahead of Sam Darnold because of his strong supporting cast. You already know the names but it’s worth repeating that the Vikings have five Pro Bowlers on offense and a first-round receiver who is coming off a strong rookie year.
How does that compare to the rest of the rookie QB class? Well, Pro Football Focus published its 2024 position group rankings for offensive line and wide receiver — the two positions that most impact the quarterback.
Here’s how the Vikings matched up:
Player | OL rank | WR rank | RB rank |
|---|---|---|---|
Chicago, Caleb Williams | 11 | 4 | 19 |
Washington, Jayden Daniels | 27 | 20 | 24 |
New England, Drake Maye | 28 | 32 | 25 |
Atlanta, Michael Penix Jr. | 6 | 13 | 5 |
Minnesota, J.J. McCarthy | 13 | 6 | 13 |
Denver, Bo Nix | 15 | 30 | 29 |
The only comparable supporting casts to McCarthy are Caleb Williams and Michael Penix Jr., who is not expected to see much of the field this year after the Falcons signed Kirk Cousins this offseason. Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels could be in for a rough ride and Bo Nix doesn’t exactly have the ‘98 Vikings’ receiving corps himself.
Is it unusual for a first-round quarterback to come into a situation where his roster is well stocked around him?
Ian Hartitz of Fantasy Life found the answer is definitely yes. He took the final rankings by PFF for rushing, receiving and blocking since 2019 and totaled them up.
NFL ranks in "Supporting Cast Rating" in terms of average team PFF rush, receiving, pass blocking and run blocking grades (everything except passing) over the past five seasons: pic.twitter.com/4l7WSUlWGb
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) May 6, 2024
Here’s how the supporting casts shaped up for the quarterbacks with at least 10 games played:
2023: Carolina, Bryce Young: 28th; Houston, C.J. Stroud: 20th
2022: Pittsburgh, Kenny Pickett: 15th
2021: Jacksonville, Trevor Lawrence: 28th; New York Jets, Zach Wilson: 17th; Chicago, Justin Fields: 19th; New England, Mac Jones: 4th
2020: Cincinnati, Joe Burrow: 28th; Miami, Tua Tagovailoa: 23rd; Los Angeles Chargers, Justin Herbert: 32nd
2019: Arizona, Kyler Murray: 15th; New York Giants, Daniel Jones: 23rd
As you can see, only Mac Jones had a top 10 supporting cast and Kenny Pickett and Kylar Murray barely cracked the top half of the league. It should come as no surprise that Jones got off to a strong start and then declined quickly as the Patriots’ supporting cast faded. The Pats went from 4th to 16th to 27th during his time there.
Herbert’s rookie season looks even more eye-popping under the light of his putrid supporting cast in 2020. He is the only rookie since 2010 to throw for more than 30 touchdowns and posted the second most yards of any rookie in that span.
Tua Tagovialoa went from one of the worst supporting casts to the top five and his performance followed. Trevor Lawrence and Joe Burrow were similarly victimized by early circumstances and then improved quickly with better play around them. We should probably give Bryce Young more time.
Not everyone was purely a product of supporting cast. CJ Stroud had a tremendous rookie year with a slightly below average group, including a middling offensive line and a light receiving corps after Tank Dell got hurt. This year he gets Stefon Diggs in his corner.
Zach Wilson’s surroundings were fine. He was not fine. Justin Fields probably got too many excuses from Bears fans based on his teams’ scores.
Daniels Jones isn’t going to be Eli Manning but nobody has had a steeper uphill climb. Maybe Malik Nabers will change that.
As it pertains to the Vikings, if McCarthy does start more than half the season it will be within a situation that features better pass protection and better receivers than almost any first-round rookie since 2019.
We can’t ignore the chicken-and-egg effect here. The top teams outside of San Francisco have extremely good quarterbacks, including Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, Lamar Jackson and Aaron Rodgers/Jordan Love. After the Chiefs won the Super Bowl last year, it’s fairly safe to say that a great quarterback can raise all boats.
It’s hard to know whether McCarthy can ever reach that echelon — most do not. However, teams like the 49ers, Eagles, Lions and 2023 Dolphins have quarterbacks that might not be capable of taking their teammates to another level yet they can thrive offensively under the right circumstances. That’s the type of environment the Vikings have created for McCarthy.