Matthew Coller: Reflecting on the events and decisions that led the Vikings to JJ McCarthy
I’ve always been incredibly fascinated by NFL teams’ quarterback histories. Maybe that’s because every time you go back through them there are always lots of gems and a few “I forgot that guy played here!” moments.
The other day I was talking with Jacksonville Jaguars writer John Shipley about how the Jags landed on Trevor Lawrence. Their all-time leading passer list on Pro-Football Reference page should come with a warning label. Some highlights: Chad Henne is Jacksonville’s sixth all-time leading passer. Blake Bortles has the second most touchdowns in team history. Todd Bauman, Trent Edwards, Luke McCown and Nick Foles all make appearances.
The Vikings QB history isn’t as bleak. In fact, it has a lot of high points. Outside of Hall of Famer has a lot of players who fall under the category of being briefly great or a lot of fun. Tommy Kramer remains a fan favorite to this day for his Two-Minute Tommy reputation for crazy comebacks. Daunte Culpepper was one of the most entertaining QBs ever, particularly when tossing the ball to Randy Moss. Brad Johnson won a lot more than he lost and caught his own pass that one time. Wade Wilson went off on the Saints and 49ers in the ‘87 playoffs. Cunningham led the best offense in NFL history at the time in ‘98 and then Jeff George threw the fastest passes ever tossed in ‘99 en route to the playoffs. Case Keenum, Miracle.
There are a lot of characters there. And an interesting stat for you: Despite not finding the “franchise guy” after Tarkenton, the Vikings still rank 8th highest in team QB rating since Fran retired in 1979. (No shock, Chicago is dead last).
Kirk Cousins fits in a weird place. He wasn’t a one-hit wonder and he wasn’t Tarkenton. He wasn’t a character or an underdog story. He wasn’t without big/exciting moments but he didn’t have enough of them to make the many millions worth it.
Now the Vikings are hoping that they are moving on from a six-year stretch where they ranked 13th in wins to a first-round quarterback who couldn’t be more opposite of his predecessor. McCarthy wasn’t born yet when the band Creed came out. He has a rocket arm and playmaking skill whereas Cousins had every aspect of the offense locked in and threw with great accuracy. Cousins was a fourth-rounder who grinded as a backup until he got his chance, McCarthy is a first-rounder who the organization will lift heaven and earth to help succeed.
And then there’s this Jeff George-looking Sam Darnold thing happening. It seems that near everyone believes that Darnold could wildly improve with Kevin O’Connell and Justin Jefferson at his disposal. It would be the most franchise thematic thing for Darnold to win in Minnesota and for the franchise to be unsure about moving on from him.
That brings me to the point. Over the last few months we all studied the heck out of the 2024 QB draft class, formed opinions and then analyzed the Vikings selecting McCarthy. We wondered about whether they would/could trade up and what they might be willing to give up in order to secure a top-six QB to officially bring the whole “competitive rebuild” arc to an end. There hasn’t been much time to think about how we got here. But since it’s the least newsy time of the year, I’m thinking about it now.
Where do we begin with the dominos that led to McCarthy? The Big Bang moment has to be Teddy Bridgewater’s injury. Up to that point the Vikings believed they had found their man. While Bridgewater’s stats page wasn’t flashy, he graded out as a mid-pack quarterback by PFF over his first two seasons and he played exactly the way Mike Zimmer wanted, avoiding turnovers, coming through in some key moments to get them to 11 wins in 2015 and leading the locker room. They saw development in the 2016 offseason that suggested he could improve on his first two years, which were played behind miserable O-lines and before the Vikings had a nasty receiver duo.
When it all came crashing down two weeks before the 2016 season, everything about the franchise’s trajectory at that position changed. With Bridgewater they would have expected to continue building the defense, fix the offensive line with the money available via Bridgewater’s rookie QB contract and have some receivers emerge (they probably would have expected Laquon Treadwell, not Adam Thielen but nonetheless…) and have a legit Super Bowl window open between 2017 and 2019.
Instead they were sent into a mad scramble to find a quarterback that could give them a chance to compete in 2016. Rick Spielman ended up sending a first-round pick to Philadelphia for Sam Bradford. The benefit of picking up Bradford was that he had two years on his contract so he could be locked in for 2016 and 2017.
After a pretty strong 2016 considering the state of the O-line, Bradford became a leader during 2017 camp and formed a good relationship with Zimmer. In Week 1 against the Saints he put on one of the best performances in team history against the Saints, throwing for 346 yards and three touchdowns (143.0 passer rating).
Even with the magical Keenum story playing out brilliantly, it’s hard not to wonder if either Bridgewater or Bradford were given the same set of circumstances (i.e. No. 1 defense, great receivers and manageable schedule) how that season would have played out. It’s not insane to think that either QB could still be here if they were healthy. Bradford is currently only 36 years old.
Instead after 2017 the Vikings faced another huge pivot point. They had plenty of options. They could have stuck with Keenum and Bridgewater or traded for Alex Smith or looked to the 2018 QB class (though they had the 30th pick). The Vikings believed that Bridgewater’s knee wouldn’t recover to the point of being a franchise QB again and thought Keenum would regress significantly from his pop-up 2017 performance.
Had they known that Lamar Jackson would be available and would turn into an elite quarterback by 2019 then they would have picked him but he appeared to be a project coming out of the draft and they were in win-now mode.
The Vikings’ logic in signing Cousins was that if they dropped a more talented quarterback into the same circumstances as Keenum had in 2017 then they would get better results. Unfortunately life in the NFL doesn’t work that way. They peaked with Cousins’ lone playoff win in his second year in Minnesota but lost in the divisional around to San Francisco.
While Cousins played very well in 2019 and had a terrific game against the Saints in New Orleans, there was plenty of reason to think that they should let his contract situation play out through 2020 rather than extending him. His price tag and the fact that the group of players who led them to the 2017 NFC Championship game was corroding made it reasonable to think the Vikings should let things play out in 2020 and risk the possibility of Cousins leaving.
Afraid to let it play out, the Vikings extended Cousins and made a bet that they could rebuild on the fly. This turned out to be a quietly big pivot point in the Vikings’ quarterback journey. Trading Stefon Diggs led to the need for a receiver in the draft, which turned out to be Justin Jefferson. The other first-round pick went to cornerback Jeff Gladney.
While we talk about the biggest regret of that draft being Antoine Winfield Jr., it should also be noted that all the quarterbacks ended up working out. Assuming the Vikings wouldn’t have had a shot at picking Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa or Justin Herbert, they would have been left with Jordan Love or Jalen Hurts.
After giving Cousins a multi-year extension, they started the 2020 season 1-5 and could have decided to burn everything down to the ground. But after a win in Green Bay to bring them to 2-5, they decided not to get rid of everything that wasn’t nailed down. Continuing to fight the fight didn’t make much difference as Zimmer’s defense collapsed and they finished 7-9.
Still the Vikings stuck with Cousins in the following draft. In this case it was the right move. The 2021 QB class turned out to be the exact opposite of 2020. Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields and Mac Jones all currently play for different teams than the ones who drafted them. It’s worth asking whether Jones or Fields would have done much better in Minnesota with the quality of receivers and offensive coordinators they would have inherited but neither had more than flashes in the NFL.
When Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and Kevin O’Connell were hired they had an opportunity to move on from Cousins and hitch their wagon to someone else. The new leadership elected to give Cousins a short-term extension rather than trading him (there were reportedly offers). They also didn’t pick his successor. Of course, QB class was much weaker than experts projected and only Kenny Pickett went in the first round.
Where things get interesting with the KAM and KOC eras and Cousins is that they might have planned to move on after 2022 but a 13-win season that bonded the head coach and quarterback made it tricky to go in another direction. The Vikings didn’t want to give their veteran QB more than a short-term deal while Cousins wanted commitment and more money than, say, Daniel Jones’ $40 million.
When they came to an impasse over an extension, that’s when it became possible that the Vikings could draft a quarterback in 2024. It also timed out well with a draft class that analysts thought would yield a record number of first-round quarterbacks.
Again there was a chance to completely bail on the season and try to pick as high as possible. When Cousins went down with an Achilles injury in Week 8 against Green Bay, the Vikings could have traded Danielle Hunter and stuck with the QBs on their roster and let the season slip away. History repeated itself though. They allowed the Green Bay win to convince them that the playoffs were still possible and chose not to tear it down to the studs at the trade deadline.
No matter what the Vikings did after Cousins went down it wasn’t going to be enough to push them high enough in the draft order to pick Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels or Drake Maye. Going into free agency the consensus outside Minnesota seemed to be that the brass was going to bring Cousins back. On the first day of free agency, however, the Falcons went wild with their offer to Cousins, giving him $100 million guaranteed on a deal longer than the one the Vikings were willing to hand out after his 13-win 2022 season.
When draft night came the difference between the close wins and losses came into play. Had the Vikings won even eight games they may have needed to make a significant trade up to get McCarthy. Had they lost two more games they might have selected Michael Penix Jr.
Now McCarthy will enter training camp as the No. 2 QB to Darnold, who was signed to be a bridge quarterback — how far the bridge has to extend is up to both players. McCarthy might play right away if he wins a camp battle or he could end up sitting for a year if Darnold thrives.
The takeaway from our trip through the Vikings’ journey to land on McCarthy is that there were so many different spots along the way when the path could have taken them somewhere else. There are times when they missed out on opportunities to do something else, draft someone else or bail on the commitment to Cousins earlier. If McCarthy ends up working out, it will have been worth it. If not, the sheer number of other possibilities along the way will be enough to drive even the most hardened Vikings fans crazy.
What if he ends up being like the run of other QBs in history? What if he’s Kirk Cousins or Brad Johnson or Teddy Bridgewater and the franchise only goes so far with him under center?
It shows you how high the bar is. It also shows you that it’s worth it. The Vikings have both tried and passed on so many different options along the way. It was finally the right time to take the swing.
Oh, it also shows you that the ride with quarterbacks is unpredictable as hell so buckle up.