Matthew Coller: What do fantasy projections say about Vikings' opposing QB schedule?
Yesterday we looked at Mike Clay’s projections for the Minnesota Vikings upcoming season, which made me wonder what the fantasy prognostication universe has to say about the teams that are on the Vikings’ schedule this year. So I decided to have a look at the expectations for every quarterback that the Vikings are set to face in 2024.
For this exercise, I used three different projection sources and randomly assigned them to each quarterback to give a wider range of opinion that just one site. Let’s dive right in…
New York Giants, Daniel Jones
Fantasy Pros: 3,201 yards, 17 TD, 13 INT, 522 rushing yards (rank: 25th)
When Jones last met up with the Minnesota Vikings in 2022 he combined in two starts for 625 yards passing and 112 yards rushing. He’s going to find quite a different defense on the other side this time around with Brian Flores in charge and only Harrison Smith, Cam Bynum and Harrison Phillips remaining from the 2022 defense that he shredded.
Last year was mostly a nightmare for Jones as he only played in six games and lost five of them with a 70.5 QB rating and an astonishing 30 times sacked. To his credit, you would be hard pressed to find a worse supporting cast than he had for those games and his 2022 season overall was legitimately (ranked 14th by PFF and 6th by ESPN’s QBR) so the Vikings aren’t likely to face anything as gnarly as the 2023 version of Jones.
His rushing is a threat and, while Fantasy Pros expects to throw 13 INTs, Jones only tossed 12 picks between 2021 and 2022 so he’s not likely to give the ball away easily. One interesting thing to watch is whether Jones becomes more of a downfield passer with Malik Nabers in the mix. He only averages 6.6 yards per attempt for his career.
Overall there is a good argument that Jones is the Vikings’ easiest QB on the schedule and he is the lowest ranked fantasy quarterback. His sack rate, questionable supporting cast sans Saquon Barkley and lack of explosive play ability should give Flores’ defense a chance to get off to a good start.
San Francisco, Brock Purdy
ESPN’s Mike Clay: 3,899 yards, 24 TD, 11 INT, 173 rushing yards (rank: 11th)
The fantasy universe seems to be channeling Jesse Pinkman here: “He can’t keep getting away with this!”
Last year Purdy made an argument for winning MVP with his 4,280 yards, 31 TD, 11 INT and league-leading 113.0 QB rating. He graded by PFF as the fourth best quarterback in the NFL and was a couple plays away from winning the Super Bowl. So why aren’t his projections higher? Well, it is very hard to repeat the type of season that he had in 2023. There are only five other instances since the merger of quarterbacks averaging more than 9.0 yards per attempt when the threw at least 400 passes. And even when QBs like Dan Marino, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan achieved such a feat they drifted back to the pack the following season.
Add history together with some skepticism still remaining from his draft status and you have lower expectations than last year.
That doesn’t mean that Purdy should be expected to fall off a cliff. He is still going to be blessed with one of the best supporting casts of the last decade, assuming that the team doesn’t trade receiver Brandon Aiyuk. The Vikings’ defense will have its hands full with the playmaking Purdy, particularly since he got a look at Flores’ scheme last season.
Houston, CJ Stroud
Fantasy Life: 4,333 yards, 29 TD, 9 INT, 192 rushing yards (rank: 6th)
Stroud is one of the darlings of the fantasy sphere. You would be hard pressed to find anywhere that he isn’t ranked in the top 10. It’s hard to argue with that logic considering he threw for over 4,000 yards as a rookie and finished in the top five in quarterback rating. That’s not to mention that Houston traded for Stefon Diggs to give him another weapon beyond Nico Collins and Tank Dell.
The question you’re probably asking is: What about a sophomore slump?
All the research on sophomore slumps has come out inconclusive. There could be some element of luck and/or schedule that played into a single season working out well for a rookie but usually QBs who thrive as rookies end up having good careers. Some of the most notable second-year jumps were Joe Burrow, Russell Wilson, Cam Newton, Jared Goff and Lamar Jackson. Players who didn’t keep rolling included Robert Griffin III, Dak Prescott and Baker Mayfield.
Green Bay, Jordan Love
Fantasy Pros: 3,822 yards, 31 TD, 12 INT, 198 rushing yards (rank: 9th)
Love isn’t a second-year player but carries a similar question to Stroud: Can he carry over what happened in 2023? The Packers’ starting QB threw the second most touchdowns in the NFL last year (32), ranked ninth in QB rating and finished fifth in PFF’s big-time throw stat.
What makes his 2024 challenging to predict is that there was such a stark difference between the first and second halves of his season. Through eight games Love failed to grade above 70 in any game by PFF and then had eight games above 70 and six above 80 with playoffs included.
Which version is expected to show up in 2024? It seems that the fantasy expectations are similar to last year, which could mean ups and downs. In his two games against the Vikings they saw both sides of the coin. He struggled mightily in Week 8 and then threw three touchdowns in a Week 17 blowout. You can bet Brian Flores will have some new things to toss his way this year.
New York Jets, Aaron Rodgers
ESPN’s Mike Clay: 3,838 yards, 28 TD, 9 INT, 109 rushing yards (rank: 9th)
Is Rodgers going to play enough games to get to these numbers? It seems the projections are still looking heavily weighing the version of Rodgers that competed for MVPs and not putting a ton of skepticism on a 40-year-old QB who hasn’t been a top 10 quarterback in about 1,300 days.
The Jets do have a supporting cast worthy of propping up the aged quarterback, who took time off this spring for a vacation rather than attending minicamp, but there should be major questions about whether he can maximize them considering the once-mobile QB is coming off an Achilles injury.
Still, until Rodgers is retired he will strike fear into Vikings fans’ hearts because of his past history as one of the NFL’s best ever.
Detroit Lions, Jared Goff
Fantasy Life: 4,148 yards, 26 TD, 11 INT, 72 rushing yards (rank: 18th)
This is where the fantasy world parts ways with the real world. The Lions had a ton of rushing touchdowns last year (27 total) which took away from Goff’s touchdown pass total. He also doesn’t run at all. Those two factors sink him in fantasy drafts but in reality he led the fifth best offense in scoring, third best offense in yards and ranked third in the NFL in net yards per pass attempt.
Detroit beefed up its offensive line even more by signing guard Kevin Zeitler and the Vikings know quite well that when he’s protected he’s going to be very tough to stop. Flores will not be treating Goff like the 18th best QB in the NFL this year.
Los Angeles Rams, Matthew Stafford
Fantasy Pros: 4,103 yards, 26 TD, 13 INT, 66 rushing yards (rank: 22nd)
Similar to Goff, Stafford is crazy underrated in terms of ranking by the fantasy projections in comparison to the fear factor in playing against him. Stafford played some of his best football last season, ranking seventh by PFF grade with an impressive 33 big-time throws (sixth most). Stafford also has just about the best wide receiver duo in the NFL.
However, the projection in terms of box score stats seems pretty fair. While Stafford did reduce his turnover-worthy plays last season he’s still a risk taker and he will occasionally miss games due to injury.
Indianapolis, Anthony Richardson
ESPN’s Mike Clay: 3,387 yards, 16 TD, 12 INT, 545 yards rushing (9 rushing TD) (rank: 8th)
The darling of the fantasy community this year, Richardson is getting top-10 rankings everywhere. It makes sense because Richardson’s four-game stint before suffering a season-ending injury was promising. He went 2-2 with a 87.3 passer rating and ran for 136 yards and four touchdowns. The upside if he can remain healthy could be a Cam Newton or Josh Allen type leap in Year 2 considering Richardson is in their ballpark as a pure athlete.
As a passer the projection is pretty safe and expectations and very high from a rushing prospective. If Richardson brings more to the table than that, watch out.
Jacksonville, Trevor Lawrence
Fantasy Life: 4,089, 21 TD, 13 INT, 319 yards rushing (rank: 15th)
The Jaguars hitched their wagon to Lawrence long term this offseason in the form of a massive contract extension. If he only ranks 15th and puts up 21 touchdowns and a shade over 4,000 yards, that would be a pretty big disappointment. It would also be par for the course for his career so far. In the last two seasons under Doug Pederson, Lawrence’s average season has been 4,188 yards, 23 TD, 11 INT and a 91.9 QB rating.
He was robbed of a number of touchdowns by his struggling wide receivers. That could improve this year but he was still only PFF’s 14th best QB in 2023 and 12th in 2022.
That doesn’t mean he’s incapable of huge bursts of tremendous play. If the light comes on and he starts consistently playing like he does at his peak then the Vikings will have their hands full with the super-armed former No. 1 overall pick.
Tennessee, Will Levis
Fantasy Pros: 3,580 yards, 20 TD, 14 INT, 178 yards rushing (rank: 26th)
How is anyone supposed to evaluate Levis’s 2023 season? He came into a rough situation with a struggling offensive line and few weapons to speak of. After a four-touchdown debut he went 2-6 with a 77.5 QB rating and graded one spot above Daniel Jones by PFF.
The Titans did a lot this offseason to help him though. They acquired Calvin Ridley and signed Tyler Boyd along with adding a good receiving running back in Tony Pollard to the backfield. If Levis can play, he should have enough around him to look pretty good. If not, it might even be worse than the 26th ranking.
Chicago Bears, Caleb Williams
ESPN’s Mike Clay: 3,537 yards, 23 TD, 13 INT, 311 yards rushing (rank: 17th)
Rookies are simply impossible to project but we know a few things about Williams: He’s definitely going to start and he definitely has wide receivers to target. The Bears acquired Keenan Allen this offseason, giving them a route-running genius to pair with star DJ Moore and top draft pick Rome Odunze.
The Bears’ pass protection is a concern though. They didn’t significantly upgrade up front after ranking 23rd by PFF in 2024. Williams struggled at USC when under pressure, which could give Flores an opportunity to welcome him to the NFL if Chicago’s blocking isn’t on point.
Arizona Cardinals, Kyler Murray
Fantasy Life: 3,633 yards, 22 TD, 10 INT, 465 yards rushing (rank: 12th)
There seem to be very high expectations for Murray, whose career was derailed by an incompetent front office and an ACL injury. In eight games back from surgery last year he graded by PFF as an average QB (70.5) and managed pedestrian numbers with a very poor supporting cast. Drafting Marvin Harrison Jr. and getting a full offseason to prepare for 2024 should help Murray get back to form — but what kind of form? At the beginning of 2021 he played like a superstar but eventually trailed off.
His average 17-game showing is 4,092 yards, 25 TD, 12 INT and a 92.2 rating with 640 yards rushing. If he does that, then he can be a force. The path to get there might not be easy. Who else is catching the ball outside Harrison Jr.? Is Murray the same runner as when he cleared 800 yards back in 2020? Is their scheme improved enough to take him to another level?
Atlanta Falcons, Kirk Cousins
Fantasy Pros: 4,017 yards, 27 TD, 9 INT, 114 yards rushing (rank: 17th)
Assuming Cousins is back to full health, he’s as reliable as they come from a numbers perspective. He will have a strong supporting cast and a play caller rooted in Sean McVay’s system and he will be playing indoors. All of that likely adds up to a big statistical season. However, it’s not the lock that it used to be following his Achilles injury. While he was putting together a strong 2024, we can’t be sure until he’s actually playing again whether the offseason recovery impacted how he throws the ball.
Seattle Seahawks, Geno Smith
ESPN’s Mike Clay: 3,537, 20 TD, 10 INT, 226 yards rushing (rank: 23rd)
Smith was still the 12th best QB in the league by PFF despite some of his box score numbers slipping last season. Ranking him 23rd feels low when you look at the trio of receivers surround him and his 4,282-yard 2022 season that isn’t very far in the rearview mirror. With 11 of his games grading above average in 2023, Smith is not a quarterback to take lightly, especially if he continues the trend from last year of reducing his sack rate, which dropped from 7.4% to 5.8%.
Takeaways
In total the Vikings do not play very many quarterbacks that the fantasy prognosticators believe are going to dominate this year. Only four of them garnered top-10 rankings and two of those are far from sure things (Rodgers, Richardson). But that doesn’t accurately portray the QB schedule since Goff and Stafford are certainly capable of shredding defenses.
The slate doesn’t have very many lowly QBs on it either. Jones and Levis are the only quarterback ranking below the top 25 and the other two QBs ranked in the 20s are pretty good (Stafford, Smith).
Overall there are a lot of QBs who have large sample sizes of either strong or very good. Whether the schedule turns out to be challenging or extremely difficult depends a lot on whether Rodgers and Cousins come back from their Achilles injuries and if the unproven QBs in Richardson, Levis and especially Williams end up being dynamic playmakers or duds.