Matthew Coller: Will Jefferson's contract restrict the Vikings roster building?
Now that the Minnesota Vikings have signed Justin Jefferson to a four-year contract extension they can throw a party and then head back to work tomorrow and break out the Excel sheets to start figuring out how they are going to continue building the roster into the future.
While Jefferson’s $35 million per year does set the high water mark in the NFL, it isn’t totally representative of the year-to-year figures on the salary cap that the Vikings will be working with when they plan out their future spending. This year his cap hit will only be $8.6 million and then that number goes up to $15.1 million.
According to OverTheCap.com, the Vikings presently have $27.7 million in cap space. They still need to sign some members of their rookie class, including both first-round picks JJ McCarthy and Dallas Turner so that number will come down but we can be sure that they will end the offseason with a decent chunk of space. Because teams are allowed to carry over cap space from year to year, they will likely be able to add on to the $54 million in space that is projected right now for 2025 (eighth most in the NFL).
Does that mean the Vikings will still be able to go on a spending spree next year despite signing Jefferson or will that cap space be short lived because of the eventual jump in his cap hit?
Jefferson’s cap number does increase to $38.9 million in 2026 but $18 million of that can be created in a restructure, per OTC. While restructures have caused the Vikings long-term cap issues, the adjustments the Vikings could make to Jefferson’s deal in 2026 would fall within the window that the team expects to be competing for a Super Bowl, making the kicks of can down the road more justifiable. It would be similar to the way the Vikings kept players like Anthony Barr and Kyle Rudolph in 2018 and 2019 while they had opportunities to battle for the NFC.
Even if the Vikings did nothing with Jefferson’s $38.9 million in 2026, it’s not likely to take up an unbearably high percentage of the salary cap at that point. Over the last three years the cap has jumped from $208 million to $255 million. With the addition of Netflix and Amazon buying rights to NFL games, the cap isn’t likely to go anywhere except up.
When it comes to 2027, Jefferson’s guaranteed salary runs out. That opens the door for a contract extension, which would lower his expected $43.8 million cap hit. This offseason AJ Brown extended his deal just two years after signing his original contract with the Eagles. His cap hits are only $11.8 and $17.6 million over the next two seasons.
So the Vikings will have some challenges when it comes to Jefferson’s extension but there are levers they can pull that will allow the overall impact to end up being quite a bit less than his $140 million mark would suggest.
How will they use the cap space that is available?
Next year the Vikings won’t have many players who are hitting free agency. Sam Darnold, Harrison Smith Byron Murphy Jr., Aaron Jones, Harrison Phillips, Shaq Griffin and Cam Bynum are their most notable projected free agents. It’s possible that Bynum is the only one who will need a new contract, though the other positions would need to be replaced.
Darrisaw’s extension will make things more complex down the road. He will aim to clear Andrew Thomas’s $23.5 million per year when he negotiates with the Vikings next offseason. If the extension is set up similarly to Jefferson’s deal then it will become expensive in 2027 as Jefferson is ideally working on another extension.
Edge rusher Jonathan Greenard, who signed in free agency this offseason, will see his cap hit jump from $5.7 million to $22.3 million in 2024 and 2025. If Josh Metellus continues playing his current level he may need an extension after 2024.
Brian O’Neill is set to carry a $26 million cap hit, which can be reduced by a restructure by $8 million per OTC. TJ Hockenson’s deal also opens up for potential restructure to reduce his $15 million cap hit.
As far as projecting potential positions of need, the Vikings could aim to find difference making players at defensive tackle, cornerback, offensive guard and running back next offseason.
In recent years depth has been a weakness. Injuries on defense in particular caused them issues so they could look to improve the second level of the depth chart.
It’s very difficult to project the exact amount of cap space that the Vikings will need in 2025 and 2026 in order to spend enough to add their final pieces but it is clear from the structure of Jefferson’s contract that they will have the ability to do so within that window, especially because JJ McCarthy is on a rookie QB contract for the entirety of the deal.
JONATHAN HARRISON