2022 NFL Draft: Could Kyle Hamilton or Kayvon Thibodeaux Fall to the Vikings at 12?

Will Hamilton or Thibodeaux slide, or are those rumors a case of pre-draft overanalysis?

Heading into this year's pre-draft cycle, Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton and Oregon edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux were viewed as two of the top defensive players in the class, up there with Michigan edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson. Both players regularly came off the board in the top five in mock drafts and were hardly worth discussing as potential fits for the Vikings, given the unlikelihood that they would be available with the 12th pick.

Somewhere over the course of the last few months, that perception shifted slightly. Hamilton and Thibodeaux started falling out of the top five in more and more mock drafts, and rumors have even popped up suggesting that one or both players could fall out of the top ten. 

The question is whether or not that perception holds any merit. We won't know how the NFL actually views Hamilton and Thibodeaux until draft night, but it's entirely possible both are taken in the top ten, meaning the rumors of them sliding were nothing more than pre-draft overanalysis. With nearly four months between the end of the college football season and the draft, all kinds of possibilities end up being discussed every year for the sake of content.

It's also possible that the NFL has legitimate concerns with one or both of Hamilton and Thibodeaux. With Hamilton, the positional value of safeties is a frequent point of discussion. He also ran a relatively slow 40-yard dash at 4.59 seconds, which may scare some teams. Positional value and athleticism aren't concerns for Thibodeaux, but his effort and character have been questioned by some.

It remains more likely than not that Hamilton and Thibodeaux come off the board before the 12th pick, particularly in Thibodeaux's case. But it's now at least worth discussing the possibility of one being available to the Vikings at 12. Would it be an easy decision to end that player's slide, or would the Vikings have reasons to pass on them like everyone in front of them did?

In my eyes, the talent of both Hamilton and Thibodeaux is too great to pass up, even if the Vikings have a greater need at cornerback than they do at safety or edge rusher. Unless Sauce Gardner is on the board, which seems even more unlikely, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah shouldn't think twice about taking Hamilton or Thibodeaux if they're available. 

Hamilton could start opposite Harrison Smith as a rookie and be deployed in all kinds of ways by defensive coordinator Ed Donatell. Smith, a fellow Notre Dame product, would be the perfect mentor for him. Hamilton has the football IQ and physical tools to be a Pro Bowl-caliber safety for a long time. 

Thibodeaux was once considered a candidate to go No. 1 overall. He's a potential superstar pass rusher, which makes me think the concerns about his effort level won't be enough to cause him to slide too far. If Thibodeaux does happen to make it to the Vikings at 12, taking him and having him rotate in with Danielle Hunter and Za'Darius Smith feels like a no-brainer. 

The upside of both Hamilton and Thibodeaux is great enough that it's still unlikely the Vikings will have a chance at either one, barring a surprising trade up. But it at least feels like more of a possibility than it did a few months ago. Stranger things have definitely happened, and it's going to be fascinating to see how it all plays out when April 28th rolls around.

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