Aaron Jones' 2024 fantasy football outlook: Should you draft the Vikings RB?

Jones is pushing 30, but he could be in line for a big season for the Vikings.

Aaron Jones during an offseason workout with the Vikings. / Image courtesy of the Minnesota Vikings

Aaron Jones is a bit of a high-risk, high-reward pick in fantasy football drafts this year. On the one hand, the former Packers star turns 30 in December, missed six games last season due to injury, and has to contend with Ty Chandler in the Vikings' backfield. On the other hand, Jones was red-hot down the stretch last season, has looked great in training camp, and is the clear lead back in a Minnesota offense that wants to run the ball more in 2024.

With all of those things considered, it makes sense that Jones is being valued as an RB2 this year, with an ADP of 54th overall (per FantasyPros). He's coming off the board as the RB18 in half-PPR leagues. Having watched Jones practice this summer, I'm high on his upside this season and think he's a great value in the fifth round in 12-team leagues.

The age and injury concerns are understandable, but this is a guy who finished last season averaging 130.6 yards from scrimmage in the Packers' final five games (including playoffs). That was highlighted by a three-touchdown performance in Green Bay's wild card round win over the Cowboys. Prior to last season, Jones had played in 62 of a possible 66 regular season games over the previous four years, so it's not like injuries have been a persistent issue in his career.

Even though Chandler will be involved, Jones is going to be the guy for the Vikings this year. He's always been efficient and explosive (career 5.5 yards per touch), which allowed him to finish as a top-five fantasy running back in both 2019 and 2020 despite sharing the backfield with Jamaal Williams.

Head coach Kevin O'Connell wants to run the ball more this year to take some pressure off of Sam Darnold, which is why he was so excited that the Vikings were able to land Jones in free agency. When Minnesota's offense is fully healthy, defenses will have to pay significant attention to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson, which should help open things up for Jones. Darnold will also likely be dumping the ball off to his veteran running back quite a bit.

I think Jones is in line for a big 2024 season. There's some risk involved, but the payoff could be massive. He's an RB2 with the upside to have an RB1-caliber year (in a recent bold predictions article, I laid out the case for Jones setting a new career high in yards from scrimmage). That makes him a very solid value in the fifth round if you're looking to add a second running back, or even as your top RB option if you load up on WR/QB/TE early.

If you do grab Jones, it might be worth handcuffing him with Chandler in the later rounds.

More: Justin Jefferson's 2024 fantasy football outlook