All signs point to Sam Darnold leaving Vikings in free agency this spring

It seems pretty clear that Darnold won't be back with the Vikings next season.

Nov 24, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold (14) looks to pass against the Chicago Bears during the second quarter at Soldier Field. / Daniel Bartel-Imagn Images

Everything is pointing towards this being Sam Darnold's only season in a Minnesota Vikings uniform.

Ever since rookie QB J.J. McCarthy impressed in training camp and then suffered a knee injury that ended his season before it began, the plan was for Darnold to play as well as possible this year and hopefully earn a big contract to be another team's starter in 2025. With six games left this season, that's exactly how this situation appears to be playing out.

Darnold has been excellent for the 9-2 Vikings, who will look to reach a five-game winning streak for the second time this season when they host the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday. The 27-year-old has had a career year under Kevin O'Connell and ranks in the top ten in the NFL in passer rating, passing touchdowns, PFF grade, and numerous other statistics.

As a result, Darnold is setting himself up to get a multi-year, starter-level contract next offseason, which is something that's been mentioned by multiple national insiders recently.

"Darnold’s price might continue to go up as teams evaluate the draft and available free-agent quarterbacks," The Athletic's Dianna Russini wrote. "Front office executives believe that his experience and performance in Minnesota this season will make Darnold’s market competitive in March."

"Darnold is probably pricing himself out of Minnesota, which was all part of the plan," wrote ESPN's Jeremy Fowler. "The Vikings are totally comfortable with Darnold using one season in Minnesota as a springboard to a bigger contract elsewhere. He's fourth in the NFL in touchdown passes (21) and ninth in passing yards (2,717). Those numbers justify putting him in that Baker Mayfield/Geno Smith weight class of mid-tier quarterback contracts."

There's also this from Trey Wingo on X/Twitter: "No matter what happens the rest of this season, Darnold won’t be back with the Vikings, per sources."

While that's been viewed as the logical outcome, Wingo is the first reputable name to report it as a matter of fact.

The Vikings have loved what Darnold has done this year, but McCarthy is their quarterback of the future. Barring a change in the medical outlook of McCarthy's knee injury, they're not going to bring Darnold back and block the Michigan product from starting until at least year three of his rookie contract.

And Darnold isn't going to take less money to be a backup in Minnesota when he's earned the right to start games elsewhere. He might be particularly desirable in a 2025 offseason without a great QB draft class or other notable free agents at the position.

That context is part of the reason why the Vikings signing Daniel Jones to their practice squad this week made a lot of sense. Jones, unlike Darnold, could work as a relatively cheap veteran to pair with McCarthy in 2025, either as a bridge option or a true backup.

Darnold returning to Minnesota next year shouldn't be 100 percent ruled out. Things could theoretically change if the Vikings win the Super Bowl, or if Darnold completely falls apart down the stretch. But at this point, it seems almost certain that he'll wind up elsewhere and the Vikings will move forward with McCarthy and some sort of fallback plan, whether that's Jones or a different veteran.