Amid Darnold heater, signs still point to J.J. McCarthy as Vikings' 2025 QB

The Vikings seem unlikely to stray from the plan that was set in place this year.

Aug 10, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) passes against the Las Vegas Raiders in the second quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. / Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

Sam Darnold has been playing like an MVP candidate lately. He was just named the NFC offensive player of the week after shredding the Falcons' defense for 347 yards and five touchdowns on Sunday. His performance is a big reason why the 11-2 Vikings look like legitimate Super Bowl contenders.

That's led to renewed discussion this week about Minnesota's 2025 quarterback situation. How could they just let Darnold, who is set to hit free agency, walk out the door in the spring?

While it's become a more fascinating decision than anyone may have anticipated, all of the signs still point to Darnold leaving and J.J. McCarthy being the Vikings' QB next year. Why? Because that's been the plan all along — and because GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah doesn't seem like the kind of person who's going to stray from a plan that's been carefully set in place, no matter how loud the outside noise gets.

The Vikings signed Darnold to a one-year, $10 million deal in March to be their bridge to a rookie. Then they traded up one spot to select McCarthy with the No. 10 pick in April — and it's important to note that they loved how he progressed from when he arrived in the spring to when a mid-August torn meniscus ended his season before it began. Based on what he saw from McCarthy in training camp and an impressive preseason opener, Kevin O'Connell declared that the Vikings have "our young franchise quarterback in the building."

While they've kept McCarthy engaged and continued his development behind the scenes, this season has been all about Darnold. He's been brilliant, thriving in O'Connell's offense and posting a passer rating of at least 100 in 11 of the first 13 games this season. And yet, it remains likely that this will be his only season in a Vikings uniform.

The plan has always been for the Vikings to help Darnold play as well as possible, then thank him for his efforts and wish him the best of luck on a multi-year deal with another team. He's played so well that his price tag might be climbing towards $35-40 million per season. Minnesota probably isn't going to be the team to pay that bill.

"I think we all know that Sam is gonna be a sought-after type of guy, from wherever that may be," offensive coordinator Wes Phillips said on Tuesday. "Whatever his future ends up being, I know all of us in this building are going to be happy for him, no matter where that ends up being."

As good as Darnold has been, it would be quite surprising if the Vikings scrap their plan and commit to him long-term. They've been operating, from a roster-building perspective, within the idea that they're going to have the advantage of a rookie quarterback contract moving forward.

McCarthy having cap hits between $5-7 million over the next three years gives the Vikings all kinds of flexibility. They've got Justin Jefferson, Christian Darrisaw, Jonathan Greenard, Brian O'Neill, and T.J. Hockenson signed to expensive multi-year deals. They have an estimated $63 million in effective cap space next season, which will be needed to address weaknesses in free agency and potentially re-sign players like Byron Murphy Jr., Camryn Bynum, and Dalton Risner, among other in-house UFAs.

Bringing back Darnold on the one-year franchise tag (which would cost around $41 million) is an interesting idea in theory, but that would leave the Vikings with minimal cap space for other moves. Signing him to a multi-year deal like the one he'll command on the open market would block McCarthy from getting a chance to prove himself as their starter while he's still on the cheap contract.

Ultimately, the main argument for sticking to the plan comes down to O'Connell and the way he's elevated so many different quarterbacks. He helped Matthew Stafford and the Rams win a Super Bowl. He got MVP-caliber play out of Kirk Cousins early last season. He won games with Josh Dobbs and was competitive with Nick Mullens. This season's work with Darnold, given his prior track record, has been O'Connell's most impressive feat yet. So why can't he help turn McCarthy, a top-10 pick with all kinds of impressive traits, into a quality NFL starter?

Yes, McCarthy remains a relatively unknown quantity who has played in one single preseason game at this level. That's why bringing someone like Daniel Jones back next year makes sense. Abandoning the plan and throwing a big contract at Darnold after one great season just doesn't feel like something the Vikings are realistically going to do to this offseason.

Then again, if they actually go win the Super Bowl, all bets might be off...

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